27/10/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Belgravia Stakes day

A strong eight race card has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday where it is Belgravia Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

7 Showcase (Bet Now: $4.80) on top in the opener. Adam Durrant trains this mare, who hasn’t raced since the Autumn Carnival where she raced like a tired horse in the Raconteur behind Mizlecki. Blinkers are off for the first time and though the time was nothing flash, she trialled well in winning at Lark Hill. Gate one and Pike are two big ticks.

2 Misty Metal (Bet Now: $2.70) is an outstanding mare for the Harvey team that resumes. She took all before her in the Winter at Belmont, winning five on the bounce. Surely will be aimed at some blacktype this prep and her trial behind Scales Of Justice was very good. Just whether she needs the run or not remains to be seen.

1 Night Voyage (Bet Now: $10.00) is on the seven day back up after racing over this track/distance last Saturday and if you were on, it was just an utter nightmare to watch. Midfield, four wide no cover throughout. Did a remarkable job to beat a few runners home behind Agent Pippa. Just needs any ounce of normal luck to go close.

I think you have to believe what you when it comes to 5 Five Degrees (Bet Now: $3.70) and her win over 2200m here last Saturday. She was wide no cover throughout yet loomed large on the turn and kept finding under Tayla Stone to get the job done. Must have pleased the stable to back up straight away. More depth here, but likeable.

6 Salon du Cheval (Bet Now: $2.30) is a progressive son of Trade Fair for Lindsey Smith who is likely on the Perth Cup path. Was somewhat unwanted in betting when resuming at Bunbury (Metro) but he kept finding with the big weight over the 1675m and proved too good. He’ll love the step up in trip and gets weight relief.

1 Django (Bet Now: $31.00) could add some value to exotics. He ran over 2000m at Bunbury (Metro) a fortnight ago and was far from disgraced behind the in form Noir de Rue. Just lost key momentum early on in the straight when looking to build. Gate one and the claim certainly helps his cause. Can add value to multiples.

2 Recharger (Bet Now: $9.50) should run a tipping race on speed and I think each way, he’s the bet. Ran over 1400m at Bunbury (Metro) last time and just went a fraction too keen in front, tiring late when sixth to Miracle Man. Should lead these for fun and give the fav something to chase. $10 thereabouts appeals as the each way bet.

7 Arcadia Queen (Bet Now: $1.70) would have clearly been on top had she drawn a better barrier. I just worry with her how far back will she get and can she give Royal Command a start and beating. The debut win at Belmont was electric. Did plenty wrong but showed a lovely turn of foot and ran time. She’ll want to be very good to win from the back against this lot.

He might need the run, but keep an eye on 5 Jaspara (Bet Now: $41.00). He is two months between runs since racing at Belmont on a bog where he loomed very large to win the race and 300m out looked the winner but just couldn’t finish it off. Saves his best for Ascot and he’s a definite yard/market watch. Could easily have something small each way on him.

Little while between wins but it looks an ideal race for 8 Kia Ora Star (Bet Now: $3.80). He was wide no cover last time at Bunbury (Metro) over the mile and I thought he did a really good job in defeat when bloused late by Salon du Cheval. Pike jumps on, gate one…the 0/3 record at Ascot and seeing the replays of those races is a concern. But I’ll take a chance on him.

1 Miracle Man (Bet Now: $5.50) was just too bad to be true when resuming before going to Bunbury (Metro) where he chased a hot speed but despite that he finished best and was most impressive. Don’t think he beat much but it was a much needed confidence boost and up to 1600m third up looks an ideal recipe.

11 The Enchantress (Bet Now: $15.00) comes through the race mentioned above won by Miracle Man and it was a total forgive. Jock sat up for the last half of the straight and there was clearly something amiss with the horse. Do you want to charge into a horse off that sort of run? No, but for exotics I could entertain because her best is good enough.

I think 2 Arctic Stream (Bet Now: $4.50) is the best on the program. Had his first run in the blinkers last time at Bunbury (Metro) and just wanted to race a touch keen which left him with not much at the end in the race won by Salon du Cheval. Should improve with the run under the belt and up to 1800m suits.

3 Sigil (Bet Now: $7.50) is the Perth version of Tom Melbourne. Forever teases to win a race but continually finds one or two better. That was the case last start at Bunbury (Metro) where he got a mile back off a hot speed but savaged the line late behind Miracle Man. Been a while since he has been at this trip but is racing as if it will be ideal.

5 Beaucount (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Brad Graham trained gelding who attempted to lead all the way in the Salon du Cheval race mentioned above where I thought his effort was full of merit, setting a pretty solid tempo before feeling the pinch late. That leaves me with reservations about him running 1800m but if he’s rated better he can cause problems.

1 Great Again (Bet Now: $4.40) for me. He was a month between runs when racing over 1400m at Bunbury (Metro) two weeks back but just lacked the hard race fitness when pipped late by Archenar Star. Tayla Stone gets on with the horse really well and is now just two weeks between runs, plus gets the ideal drag over via Nelson’s Flight.

8 Arcadia Prince (Bet Now: $2.60) looks a very good four year old for Team Williams who resumed over 1400m at Belmont three weeks ago and produced one of the wins of the day, charging home from the back to blouse them and some of the best splits of the afternoon. 2/2 second up, but I just worry he might give away too much start.

4 Like A Butterfly (Bet Now: $18.00) is a talented daughter of Blackfriars resuming for the Lou Luciani stable. This girl hasn’t raced since the Belmont Guineas in June when pulling up with the thumps behind State Prosecutor. The Lark Hill trial behind Scales Of Justice was pretty good and she can sprint well fresh.

2 Lordhelpmerun (Bet Now: $4.60) can only run well for mine. Resumed at Belmont four weeks ago in what looked a decent enough three year old race where he was four wide for the most part and was there still kicking until the final furlong when condition gave out. Won his lone second up run and draws to get a lovely sit off a likely brutal tempo.

There has been plenty to like about 12 Mystery Miss (Bet Now: $4.60) and her two wins this time in. Bolted up fresh in a Northam maiden prior to racing over 1300m at Belmont where she was just as impressive. The gap between runs tells me they think this girl is Carnival quality so I’m keen to see how/if she measures up.

15 Double Bubble (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Simon Miller trained filly who is nine weeks between runs since racing at Belmont over 1300m where she was a hard even money favourite and tried hard but was no match late for Pagan Image, who has gone on to run well since. Trialled well enough at Lark Hill and was dynamite fresh on debut.

Have to give 6 Stageman (Bet Now: $2.50) another chance. Was pretty confident he’d run well when resuming at Bunbury (Metro) but after presenting to the middle of the track and looming, he didn’t finish it off at all behind Big Caroline in a disappointing return. He’s shown to be much better than that, so give him another look.

Interesting that 11 Pablo’s Poem (Bet Now: $4.20) runs here and not the Belgravia. He won the race mentioned above that Lordhelpmerun contested. He was given a lovely front running steer from Carbery and when clicked up, he found plenty and proved too good. Clearly more depth this time around, but should get over easily enough and be dangerous.

12 The Nicconian (Bet Now: $21.00) is on the seven day back up for the Parnham team since racing at this track/distance last Saturday where he was up on speed and seemingly going easily but he couldn’t quite finish it off behind Agent Pippa. Should get a good run near the speed again…does he have the brilliance to win? I’d say no, but a must for exotics.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 2 Arctic Stream

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Royal Command

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 2 Lordhelpmerun

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 8, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 12, 15

Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 11, 12

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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