Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday, their first meeting back for 2018. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:40) Race One: TAB Plate 1100m: 1100m
Siding with 6 Omar (Bet Now: $2.80). Gerald Ryan trained colt on debut. Son of Snitzel out of the former very good mare Ichihara, so he should come to hand early and that looks to be the case off a couple of very nice trial efforts where he has gone about his business with purpose without really being pressured. Looks a smart type.
3 Outrageous (Bet Now: $4.60) is an All Too Hard colt first up for the Hawkes team. This bloke has only had the one outing, which came in the Breeders Plate where he was far from disgraced behind Performer. Has been given a really good break and to my eye he trialled well at Warwick Farm. Draws a sweet gate for his resumption on the home track.
8 Sizzling Belle (Bet Now: $14.00) is a visitor from Canberra for Nick Olive and the fact he brings her to town suggests he does have a good opinion of this filly. Not sure what she beat on debut at Wagga, probably not much, but the time she ran suggests she is handy. Good test, but she’ll be on speed and giving a sight for sure.
Race 2. (13:20) Wilkes Quality 1100m
2 Siege Of Quebec (Bet Now: $1.60) clearly on top for me. Really good colt for the Waterhouse/Bott team who was outstanding in three career outings during the Winter, winning his first two starts before a gutsy second to Menari in the Rosebud. Two trials leading in have been outstanding, he maps to lead and take some beating.
1 Single Bullet (Bet Now: $5.00) …I think he is a milk drinker and I think until he gets the snip, he’ll remain that way. But in saying that, this is one of the easier races he has contested throughout his career. Hasn’t raced since the Wyong Magic Millions where he looked all over a winner but was gunned down late. 1100m fresh looks ideal. I’d say this is D-Day.
5 Roman Typhoon (Bet Now: $13.00) rises in depth but I think he could be a knockout chance. He ran at Randwick a fortnight back and even though it’ll read seventh of eight, he was very unlucky and would have gone close to winning with normal luck. Just got badly held up when appearing to be bolting. Normal luck and it’ll be interesting to see what he does.
Race 3. (13:55) Owners Forum @ Royal RandwickHandicap (88) 1500m
9 Prometheus (Bet Now: $5.50) does look the one to beat here. This son of Snitzel for Team Snowden looks to be going really well at the moment. Last two wins have come at Kembla Grange over 1400m and the mile respectively. The mile he did plenty wrong and had to dig deep but he got the win. I think back to 1500m at this level suits and he has race fitness on his side.
5 Eusebio (Bet Now: $3.40) looks ready to fire now third up for Godolphin. Loomed to win last time out at Randwick but condition just gave out when a close up third to Voilier. The two runs back have indicated he has come back well. Doubt there will be many, if any excuses here because it’s a very winnable race on his best form.
8 Reiby The Red (Bet Now: $11.00) might be some value here. Jason Attard trainst his galloper, who is first up. 1500m fresh tells me there is intent to run well and he did bolt up in a Warwick Farm trial recently, winning by five lengths in good time. Can sprint well fresh and he does draw a nice gate, plus Schofield sticks.
Race 4. (14:30) TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1100m
Danny Williams had several nominated for this race but elects to go with the sole runner in 12 El Mo (Bet Now: $4.20) and I reckon that is a good enough lead for me. Dominant maiden win last time out at Goulburn and the form out of that has been franked with Ocean Express bolting up at Taree. Avdulla on, should take some beating.
2 Ori On Fire (Bet Now: $4.20) is a talented mare for Cameron Crockett who had trialled up a storm prior to resuming at Tamworth where she landed some nice bets with a dominant all the way win under Andrew Gibbons, running a record time for the 1000m. Has to extend that to 1100m, but if she can, she’s right in the game.
16 Our Rosemaree (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Terry Robinson trained mare who resumed over the 920m at Moruya and closed off well from the back to run a close up third to Oriental Runner in a blanket finish. Rises big time in grade/depth, but she draws to get a lovely run off a brutal speed and they find Corey Brown.
Race 5. (15:05) Chris Toogood Farewell Handicap (80) 1300m
3 Samadoubt (Bet Now: $3.70) looks to be flying at the moment for Bjorn Baker. I think if you were on last time out at Randwick, and saw the splits post race, fair to say the ride of Rachel King wasn’t flash. In the middle stages of the race, there was a 600m period where he ran just over 33, a suicidal speed. No wonder he was gone 150m out. Cheaper lead here, he can win.
2 Grande Punto (Bet Now: $13.00) is racing really for Allan Denham and a win may not be far away. He comes through the Tip Top race at Randwick a fortnight back and closed off well late when fourth to that horse, beaten just over a length. Gets a lovely gate and can carry weight successfully. Key chance.
11 Merovee (Bet Now: $4.50) is a regally bred three year old that resumes for the Chris Waller. By Frankel out of the former good mare More Strawberries. This horse showed really good promise in the Spring and showed signs he could be a Group l three year old. The two trials indicate that whatever he does here, he will improve on, but he looks to have class/quality.
Race 6. (15:40) #theraces Handicap (80) 1350m
11 Moss Trip (Bet Now: $2.90) is a three year old daughter of Mossman who trialled up well prior to resuming at Kembla Grange where she was heavily backed and the punters got it spot on as she scored a rather dominant win against the older horses. Tougher here, but hard to ignore the resumption and she looks above average.
8 Witches (Bet Now: $5.50) a definite threat. This mare came with a decent finishing burst between runners to win first up at Randwick before going to Warwick Farm last Wednesday where it was a tough watch if you were on. Badly held up behind runners before angling clear and attacking the line to just miss. Should be at peak fitness and back on a bigger track is ideal.
6 Miss Ballantine (Bet Now: $11.00) should appreciate coming back to the 1350m. She ran over the mile in the Belle Of The Turf last time out at Gosford and probably found the class/distance a bit much. Form prior was solid. She isn’t the most reliable in terms of winning, but for exotics, I think she is a must include.
Race 7. (16:20) Carrington Stakes 1400m
Taking a chance on 8 George Patton (Bet Now: $3.10), a former French galloper making his Australian debut for Team Snowden. This bloke hasn’t raced since midway through 2016 but when racing in France, he was gradually improving and eventually ended up at Group l level where he was far from disgraced. Recent trial was very good, albeit just the one leading up to this, but I think he has a bit of class/quality.
7 Lanciato (Bet Now: $3.40) is a mark Newnham trained galloper who is absolutely low flying this prep. Heavily backed a fortnight back at Randwick and the plonk was landed as he charged home from the back and rounded up the in form Noire with a fair bit of ease in the end. Good record at Rosehill and third up, he should be just about at peak fitness.
2 Beauty Flame (Bet Now: $21.00) is the interesting runner. Former Hong Kong galloper who has had a few runs in Australia now for Mel O’Gorman, all of which coming during the Brisbane Summer Carnival where he ran well without winning. The bigger track here should be right up his alley and a firm surface a definite tick.
Race 8. (17:00) ATC Owners Benefit Card Handicap (82) 1800m
Think 9 Sir Barb (Bet Now: $10.00) is a great each way play here and I am happy to butter up. Thought the ride of Collett and the tactic to stay inside wasn’t ideal last Wednesday at Warwick Farm. I think had he peeled out, he definitely runs a place. Convinced he is going well and the rise to 1800m on the big track looks an ideal set up.
7 Emperor’s Way (Bet Now: $3.90) is a son of Roman Emperor who is going really well at the moment for Team Snowden. Schofield gave the horse a peach a fortnight back over this trip at Randwick where he had the horse tucked in behind the speed before eventually angling clear and finishing best. See no reason why he can’t run well again.
5 Nothing Box (Bet Now: $8.00) looks to be going really well for the Chris Waller team. Problem is he isn’t winning. Comes through the Emperor’s Way race at Randwick where I thought he had every chance but just didn’t quite see it out. Gets down in the weights again and draws to get a sweet run just off the pace.
Race 9. (17:40) Tab.com.au Sprint (80) 1100m
Siding with 8 My Maher (Bet Now: $5.00) in the get out. Matty Smith trains this mare who resumed over 1000m at Randwick three weeks back and she just got too far back but worked home well late behind Burradoo. Think she can get the cart over via Pedway and I think with the weight pull and Avdulla steering, she can win.
5 Pedway (Bet Now: $4.20) is racing really well at the moment for Gerald Ryan. He ran over the short course at Canterbury last time out and did a mountain of work on speed only to go down late at the hands of Cordoned. Think Clark will push the button to find the lead and at the Rosehill 1100m, that’s the spot to be.
1 Ziggy Willie (Bet Now: $8.50) drops miles in depth after contesting the Falvelon at Doomben last time out where he got back against the bias and worked home okay behind Snitzkraft, who ran a beauty in the Magic Millions Sprint. Has to carry the weight, but we know on his day, he can definitely take this out.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 8 George Patton
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 12 El Mo
VALUE: Race Eight Number 9 Sir Barb
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 8, 11
Leg Two: 7, 8
Leg Three: 5, 7, 9, 10
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 8
$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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