Saturday’s feature Victorian meeting will be raced at Sandown racecourse with Flemington having a Friday meeting for Anzac day. The racing will take a back seat to Morphettville and Randwick which both offer G1 racing but despite there being no Listed or Group races here there are some decent races and plenty of value for anyone having a bet.
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Race One (12:10) : Catanach’s Jewellers Hcp 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Husson Eagle (Best Odds: $4.60) was very good on debut when finishing with Bring Me The Maid but was edged out on the line with that form looking a good guide for this race. He then went to Moonee Valley where he didn’t get much luck and probably didn’t handle the sharp turn. Finds a more suitable track here and i expect him to be very hard to beat in the race.
Big Danger: Reward For Bel (Best Odds: $6.00) on paper is bred for speed and i am expecting that for his debut run on Saturday. He is yet to have a trial but Mick Price always has his 2yo’s firing and i expect no different here. He must be kept safe.
Roughie: Ramsden Street (Best Odds: $8.00) has had the one start that being at Bendigo where he hit the line strongly over 900m showing that a step up in distance slightly will suit and he gets that here. He drops in weight from that run and has drawn a good barrier in the race. He looks one that should be at decent odds that will figure strongly in the finish.
Race Two (12:45) : Hyland Race Colours Hcp 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Vain Queen (Best Odds: $2.40) returns from six months on the side line and she has found a a very winnable race to win first up. She is unbeaten from four starts and the team at Malua wouldn’t be running her if she wasn’t close to her best and if she is she will beat these with ease. She gets a claim and has drawn a middle barrier which will suit. The even money looks a good bet.
Big Danger: Nadeem Lass (Best Odds: $17.00) i thought was unlucky at Geelong last start and despite this being a tougher field i think she will be very competitive at double figure odds. She will drop a lot in weight from her last two starts and from barrier one she will get a soft run in transit and with a bit of luck i think we will see her run a big race.
Roughie: Legcut (Best Odds: $19.00) was disappointing last start but her run before that i thought she should have finished a lot closer with some luck. Happy to give her another chance on Saturday at the big price and i think she is one to include for some value in a race dominated by the favourite.
Race Three (13:20) : Schweppes Hcp 1800m Form Guide
Back Me: Two horses stick out for me in this race as the class horses and i have gone with Backstedt (Best Odds: $7.00) because of the weight allowance he will get with Kayla Nisbet claiming in the race. He gets into the weights really well here when you look at his previous wins and he will be very hard to beat against a pretty weak field.
Big Danger: Bel Thor (Best Odds: $10.00) will be hoping for rain and there is a bit of it around but i am not sure whether it will be enough to give him a big advantage but he will still be very hard to beat in this grade even if it doesn’t come.
Roughie: Duplicity Jones (Best Odds: $10.00) finds a much easier race here and i think she will be right in the finish. Last start she wasn’t given a chance to win and should have finished closer on the line. Two starts ago she got beaten narrowly as an odds on favourite at Moonee Valley in what i thought was a decent run (probably because i didn’t back her) so i am willing to give her another chance on Saturday.
Race Four (13:55) : Routleys Bakery (bm78) 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Native Land (Best Odds: $4.60) has had absolutely no luck at her last two starts which she didn’t finish far away in. I think she should have gone close in both of those runs and this looks a similar class. She is lightly raced and will take some improvement from the runs and with some luck i think she will be very hard to beat.
Big Danger: Tear Gas (Best Odds: $3.30) i don’t think stayed as well as many hoped with the son of High Chaparral going to the front and being collared early in the straight as an odds on favourite at Sandown last start. Back to the mile here i think is a much better distance for her and from barrier three she will get the run of the race. Should be able to bounce back and be hard to run down.
Roughie: Khutulun (Best Odds: $8.00) has just had the two runs and both have been very good including a win on debut. She will improve again with the increase in distance and despite this looking tougher than her previous runs she will be right in the finish.
Race Five (14:31) : New Zealand Bloodstock (bm70) 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: By The Grace (Best Odds: $8.50) ran a massive race last start at Flemington after missing the jump getting back and hitting the line strongly to not be beaten far on the line in what was a race suited for those on the speed. From barrier one he will need to jump with them on Saturday and if he does he will be very hard to beat.
Big Danger: Intrepido (Best Odds: $9.00) is coming from a quality stable who has been in good form lately so he has to be included in this race despite the increase in grade from last start. His run was good last start and probably should have won the race. He is lightly raced so i am expecting improvement from that run and apart from a few runners in this race it is isn’t the best field and he will go close.
Roughie: Olivier (Best Odds: $21.00) his record doesn’t show it but his last two runs have been good and he wasn’t beaten far in either of them. He ran eleventh last start but was only beaten two lengths on the line in harder grade. The run before that he ran a big race over an unsuitable distance and with the increase here and drop in grade ill be adding him in at what should be a good price.
Race Six (15:06) : Sportingbet Best Tote (bm84) 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Unscrupulous (Best Odds: $11.00) always jumps away slowly but this race looks to have decent speed in it if all the runners that are likely to go forward do which will give her every chance from the back of the field. She has won at the distance and she should handle the Sandown track well.
Big Danger: Girl Guide (Best Odds: $3.00) is such an honest galloper and there is nothing to say she can’t win again on Saturday even with the step up in class. She has drawn a middle barrier which will be fine as she is likely to go to the front anyways. Jye McNeil will claim three kilograms which really aids her chances and she will take a ton of running down.
Roughie: Awasita will be stepping up to the distance for the first time and judging by her last two runs i think it will suit her. She run on okay last start in a better race and the extra distance here i think she will be able to settle back and i think she will be attacking the line well and she should have a better turn of foot than most of these. She has won half the races she has been in so the value on offer for her on Saturday is very good.
Race Seven (15:45) : Perri Cutten Hcp (84) 1500m Form Guide
Back Me: Primitive Man was disappointing last start but i am happy to forgive that run and down in the weights and up in distance i think he will be very hard to beat on Saturday. Jamie Kah takes the ride who is in great form and she will need to be to get a decent spot from barrier 16 but if she can i think he is the horse to beat in the race and can be backed each way with confidence.
Big Danger: Magic Me (Best Odds: $15.00) has been good in his past two starts the latter being a very good form race now with Our Voodoo Prince winning the Easter Cup on the weekend and TooleyBuc Kid also coming out to win on the same day at Caulfield. He is at good odds in the market and i think based on his last two runs it represents value.
Roughie: Under The Hat has been disappointing at his last two starts but has shown to have plenty of ability and if he can return to form he looks very hard to beat in this race which doesn’t boast much quality.
Race Eight (16:25) : Le Pine Funerals Hcp (90) 1300m Form Guide
Back Me: Henwood (Best Odds: $6.00) was good in a quality race last start which was his first race in five months so he will be better for the run and his second up form is good without providing a win. He will get a 2kg claim which will definitely help and from barrier nine i expect him to go back and find a spot one off the fence and will be hitting the line hard late and he will be hard to hold out.
Big Danger: Rich Jack (Best Odds: $6.00) made a big step up in grade a fortnight ago and he ran a very good race, he finds a similar quality race here and i expect him to improve from that run. He is likely to find a firmer surface which i think will suit and from barrier three he will get a better run through transit and be right in the finish.
Roughie: Sir Fernando (Best Odds: $26.00) finds a much easier race on Saturday than what he faced last start and i thought he put in a decent run then. He will need some luck from the barrier but he is weighted well in this grade and at the odds i think he should definitely be included in the selections and i think he can go close.
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Best Bet: Race Five Number 5 By The Grace (Best Odds: $8.50)
Next Best: Race Seven Number 3 Rugged Cross (Best Odds: $2.90)
Best Roughie: Race Six Number 6 Unscrupulous (Best Odds: $11.00)
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