The Sydney Autumn Carnival wraps up this Saturday with another cracking program lined up, headed by two $400,000 Group l races, the All Aged Stakes (1400m) and the Champagne Stakes (1600m). The prizemoney might not be as significant as what we have seen in recent weeks, but both features should be absolute belters.
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Race One (12:30) : Tab Rewards Handicap (90) 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Keith’s Legacy on top. He looks to have come back in pretty good order. Trialled really well behind Albrecht prior to him not handling the wet track first up behind Ecuador, then costing himself the race at Kembla when laying in badly. If he runs more genuine in the straight here, he’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: Haussmann (Best Odds: $3.30) won that race at Kembla, and he showed some ticker himself because he was challenged very strongly in the straight to hold on and he did. Has since gone to the trials and looked good there behind stablemate Emblems to tick him over. The lead looks his on a platter, so if he gets an easy time in front, he will prove hard to run down.
Roughie: Kaypers (Best Odds: $6.50) continues to race well without winning this prep albeit in much harder races than this. Worked to the line very nicely behind subsequent Doncaster placegetter Weary in the prelude, so the massive class drop will aid his winning claims.
$400 Keith’s Legacy Free Bet
Race Two (13:05) : Ticketek Hall Mark Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Small field, but it’s a beauty. I’m going to forgive That’s A Good Idea (Best Odds: $5.00) and give him one last chance here as he gets back to Randwick and back onto a much needed firm surface. Those two elements, along with being on the minimum, gives him a great winning chance.
Big Danger: Knoydart (Best Odds: $3.30) has been freshened since back to back Group l placings behind Lankan Rupee in the Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket Handicap where he was fantastic in each. Looked solid enough in a recent barrier trial to suggest he can win here, but I am sure Darley have the big sprint races up North in mind.
Roughie: See The World (Best Odds: $10.00) was one of only a couple to make up any significant ground in the T J Smith behind Lankan Rupee, coming from near last on the turn to storm home for fifth. He grows about 100 legs on wet ground, but can be effective on top of it also, so he certainly isn’t a one trick pony.
$400 That’s A Good Idea Free Bet
Race Three (13:40) : BMW Handicap (85) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Good benchmark race here. I was quite taken by the trial win of Two Blue (Best Odds: $10.00) on her home track at Wyong a couple of weeks back, running really good time on a heavy track. Generally needs a run or two to get going in a prep, but she certainly looks forward enough to win fresh.
Big Danger: Green Beret (Best Odds: $7.50) was fantastic when resuming at Warwick Farm, sitting very wide all the way on a heavy track, carrying 59kg and looking the winner until condition gave out over the final furlong. He is a fresh horse, so he generally runs at his best either first or second up. Gets conditions to suit here and just looks well placed.
Roughie: The drop back to 1200m should really suit handy three year old Boss Lane (Best Odds: $13.00), who peeled out last week in the South Pacific and looked as if he was going to threaten, but just couldn’t quite let down given the leader walked in front and sprinted hard late. Gets in well at the weights, draws well and is another who should appreciate a firmer surface.
$400 Two Blue Free Bet
Race Four (14:15) : Johnnie Walker Frank Packer Plate 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Got this down to a two horse race between Hooked and Arabian Gold (Best Odds: $3.50). Going for the filly, because I thought she was simply fantastic in the Adrian Knox, carrying 59kg on a bottomless surface yet winning with ease. Drops 4.5kg, back on to a firmer surface, still has upside, Olly rides…ticks plenty of boxes.
Big Danger: Gee Hooked (Best Odds: $3.60) deserved a Group l during the Autumn. He ran some cracking races without breaking through, in particular last start in the Derby where he looked to be bolting on the turn, but just couldn’t quite run the 2400m out and eventually ran third. He has got the boys covered, but he he has had five very runs, four of them on wet ground hence why I’m going with the filly, but he still should be right in the finish.
Roughie: Pheidon (Best Odds: $5.00) was a dominant winner of the Alister Clark under the Moonee Valley lights, then went to the Tulloch and worked to the line quite well when sixth to Gallatin. He has pretty much done all of this in one prep apart from a four week break after his third start, so he has done a great job and didn’t look like a tired horse in the Tulloch.
$400 Arabian Gold Free Bet
Race Five (14:50) : Moet & Chandon Champagne Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Veuvelicious (Best Odds: $3.60) on top for me. Had to win the Fernhill last week to warrant a start here, and she earned it in spades. She spanked her rivals there and was very strong at the end of the race. She has the form on the board beyond 1400m and I know Olly has a healthy opinion of her. I’m happy to be in her corner.
Big Danger: Peggy Jean (Best Odds: $3.30) was given a beautiful ride by Nash to win the Sires a fortnight back, poking through the field and letting down at the right time to forge ahead of noted wet tracker Scratch Me Lucky late. Getting onto a dry track here will be no issue, cherry ripe fitness wise and Nash sticks. No reason why she can’t do the double.
Roughie: I am giving the Adelaide filly Go Indy Go (Best Odds: $7.00) a lot of respect in this. Her win in the Sires at Morphettville was dominant, arrogant and highly impressive and it warranted a trip to Sydney. Her sectional times throughout her career compare quite well with the two mentioned above, so I give her a serious chance in this.
$400 Veuvelicious Free Bet
Race Six (15:25) : Schweppes All Aged Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for the Japanese mare Hana’s Goal (Best Odds: $17.00). It was planned that she’d only have two runs here, being the Coolmore and Doncaster, but after her slashing sixth in the Doncaster, connections have stuck around and why not? She is absolutely flying at the moment and gets on to a firm track, which she has been crying out for. A repeat of her Doncaster run here and she just about wins.
Big Danger: Weary (Best Odds: $8.00) was a dominant winner of the Doncaster prelude, then carried alot of smart money, along with sentimental for Tommy, in the big race and he ran enormous, finishing third to Sacred Falls and Royal Descent. That tough mile run should toughen him right up for a race like this and rates as the serious threat.
Roughie: Woodbine (Best Odds: $18.00) is one of the best bred gallopers going around at the moment, being by Hussonet out of former champion filly Miss Finland. He ran last week in the South Pacific and ran quite well when second to Beauty’s Beast. He’ll be set up for life if he was to win this, so there is a bit riding on his performance for Arrowfield. Best roughie in the race.
$400 Hana’s Goal Free Bet
Race Seven (16:05) : Barcardi Untameable J H B Carr Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: I think the fillies in the middle of the field will fight this race out. Northern Glory (Best Odds: $5.00) is absolutely flying at the moment, but just can’t get luck. Got held up at a crucial stage behind Sidestep in the Darby Munro, then was at the centre of the track for the entire race in the P J Bell and stuck on so well for a close up fourth. Drawn the paint, firm track, minimum weight, stable flying, looks the winner.
Big Danger: Calming Influence (Best Odds: $5.00) had the gun sit off the pace in that event, and when presented into the straight, she looked a massive chance, but as soon as she came off the bit, she did zilch, so completely forget she went around there. Good record second up and gets better conditions here.
Roughie: Miniature (Best Odds: $5.50) looked the winner 300m in the P J Bell, but fitness just gave out late and was swamped late by Politeness and Cosmic Endeavour, who kicked back. Politeness may win a Group l this weekend and the other horse bolted in last week, so the form is outstanding. Only query is the wide barrier hence why she is only third pick.
$400 Northern Glory Free Bet
Race Eight (16:45) : JRA Plate 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Interesting race to end the carnival. The biggest tip ever was for Diametric (Best Odds: $15.00) at his Australian debut in the Sky High, but he made a dill of himself in the yard and pretty much lost all chance there, then was squeezed against the rail in the Doncaster Prelude and probably wasn’t 100% happy on the heavy going. He gets out to an ideal trip, big track and dry ground. D-Day for him.
Big Danger: I’m Imposing (Best Odds: $5.00) ran a beauty in the Doncaster Prelude, making up very good ground late to run third. He can handle all conditions so getting to a good3/dead4 will pose no worries, and he did trial very well last week.
Roughie: Maluckyday (Best Odds: $13.00) is racing so well at the moment. Really caught the eye first up in the Newcastle Newmarket then made up a stack of ground behind Junoob in the Neville Sellwood. It’s been a long time since he has ran over a decent trip on this track, with the latest being a good seventh to Mourayan in the Sydney Cup last year. On his old form, he’d spank these, and on his current form, he’ll go close.
$400 Diametric Free Bet
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Best Bet: Race Seven Number 6 Northern Glory (Best Odds: $4.80)
Next Best: Race Four Number 9 Arabian Gold (Best Odds: $3.00)
Best Roughie: Race Three Number 7 Two Blue (Best Odds: $10.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 6, 8, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 7, 8, 10
Leg Three: 5, 6, 7
Leg Four: 3, 5, 6, 8, 10
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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