The Sydney Autumn Carnival continues at Rosehill this Saturday, with the feature race being the BMW (2400m), the Group l worth $1.5 Million. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:45) : E-Group Security Handicap (85) 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Federal (Best Odds: $4.80) is a talented type that resumes for Godolphin. He hasn’t raced in nearly a year since placing in the Hawkesbury Guineas at this track. Trials leading in have been sharp and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 8 Rockalicious (Best Odds: $4.60) resumes here for Chris Waller after a really good prep during the Summer, which saw the horse string together a number of wins. His trials leading in have been very good and he looks primed to run a beauty fresh.
Roughie: 6 Dragon Flyer (Best Odds: $7.50) ran over 1350m here a couple of weeks back and looked a little unlucky I thought given he was held up a touch in the straight when appearing to travel well behind High Midnight. He should be just about at peak fitness and draws to get a sweet trip.
Race Two (13:20) : The Schweppervescence 1400m:
Back Me: 13 Moqueen (Best Odds: $8.00) has been freshened up since running a game third to French Fern in the Reisling (1200m), and she was pretty good in defeat given she didn’t get much room in the straight. Barrier one and Oliver rides, so she ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: 1 Prized Icon (Best Odds: $9.00) comes through the Black Opal (1200m) at Canberra when running a game third to impressive winner Defcon, who didn’t run a great race in the Slipper, but he is in the right stable, hard fit and despite the wide gate, is a leading contender.
Roughie: 11 Achi Baba (Best Odds: $12.00) debuted at Ladbrokes Park and worked home pretty well I thought late in the race behind a couple of rippers in Revolving Door and Seaburge, who ran well in the Sires at Flemington. Has since trialled at Randwick and looked very well there. McDonald rides which is also a good lead.
Race Three (13:55) : The Daily Telegraph Neville Sellwood Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: 2 It’s Somewhat (Best Odds: $2.00) was given a lovely on speed steer from Sam Clipperton to win the Ajax (1500m) a fortnight back. He looks a query at 2000m but McDonald rides, has upside and runs well on the track.
Big Danger: It’s getting close to D-Day for 1 Magic Hurricane (Best Odds: $10.00). He comes through the Kingston Town where he was very disappointing in running last behind Sir John Hawkwood, but I’ll give him a forgive based on the slow tempo. Oliver on from a good gate…last chance.
Roughie: 11 Zarzali (Best Odds: $18.00) could be the improver here at odds. Her first up run behind Religify was pretty good I thought before running an absolute howler Aspiration behind Heavens Above. Has since trialled at Randwick and looked pretty good there I thought, so she can bounce back for sure down in the weights and up in trip.
Race Four (14:30) : The Star Kingdom Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Malaguerra (Best Odds: $2.70) on form, looks the one here. He has been a revelation since being gelded and was fantastic in winning first up down the Flemington straight. Was due to run last week in the Galaxy but didn’t get a start. Gate one here, should lead…this should be a nice consolation.
Big Danger: 3 Alberto Magic (Best Odds: $4.00) was spanked in betting when resuming in the Maurice McCarten and though he didn’t show an electric turn of foot that we know he has, he was still very good in winning. He draws to stalk Malaguerra and have the last say.
Roughie: 8 Coolring (Best Odds: $9.00) was given a 12/10 from Blake Shinn to win here first up before going to Kembla Grange when running a game second to a real classy one in My Favorite. He is absolutely flying and is a must include here.
Race Five (15:10) : Tulloch Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: I am not going to drop off 8 Balmain Boy (Best Odds: $14.00). He was ridden upside down in the Randwick Guineas where he was ridden to suit the track, attempting to lead all the way. He is better when he has something to chase, and I think that should eventuate here. He is eligible for midweeks still, but he can certainly win with the right trip.
Big Danger: 7 Old North (Best Odds: $3.00) comes through the Pharlap (1500m) where he got back and worked home well against a slow tempo when a close up fourth to Hattori Hanzo. He will eat up the 2000m and just has enormous upside.
Roughie: 5 Tatoosh (Best Odds: $21.00) also comes through the Pharlap where he got back near last in the run and worked home alright late behind Hattori Hanzo. If there was any rain about, I’d give him a serious chance here, but even without the rain, he is a contender.
Race Six (15:50) : Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m:
Big Danger: 5 Risque (Best Odds: $3.80) was excellent in defeat when third to Palentino in the Australian Guineas (1600m) given she was a fair break between runs and was wide throughout. She could be the case of having too much brilliance over her rivals which will offset the rise in trip.
Big Danger: 15 Happy Hannah (Best Odds: $4.60) rises in grade, but gee there is plenty to like about this filly for Team Snowden. She was awfully impressive in winning last time out at Warwick Farm and the form has held up with the third horse, Moher, bolting up on Wednesday at Kembla Grange.
Roughie: 4 Honesta (Best Odds: $15.00) comes through the Kembla Grange Classic (1600m) where she didn’t really get a chance to build up momentum on a day where it was vital to do that. Up to 2000m is going to really suit her and Williams jumps back aboard.
Race Seven (16:30) : The BMW 2400m:
Back Me: 6 Mongolian Khan (Best Odds: $5.50) is on the back up from last Saturday in the Ranvet (2000m). While on paper it only reads fifth, I thought it was pretty good, and he ran through the line. He ran through the line in the Caulfield Stakes in the Spring before backing up seven days later to win the Caulfield Cup, so I am going to respect him enormously.
Big Danger: 7 Preferment (Best Odds: $3.50) was given a beaut ride from Bowman to win the Australian Cup (2000m) given there was just no speed at all, so the hoop seized the initiative and that’s what won the horse the race. Looks very well placed here back on his home track and is the clear horse to beat.
Roughie: 9 Rising Romance (Best Odds: $10.00) ran third to Preferment in the race mentioned above and she really had to run third given the tempo. She is a query at running a strong 2400m, but she draws a soft gate and should be around the mark somewhere.
Race Eight (17:10) : Ascend Sales Trophies Emancipation Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: Just load up on 4 Badawiya (Best Odds: $4.80). I’ll concede she had the dream run in the Kewney (1400m), but she took full advantage of it and bolted up to win with enormous ease. With natural upside, and given she is being aimed towards the Queen Of The Turf (1600m), she should put these away and I am confident she will.
Big Danger: 2 Solicit (Best Odds: $2.20) attempted to lead all the way in the Coolmore Classic (1500m) and with about 200m to go she looked home, but was nailed late by Peeping and Azkadellia, both classy mares. Draws wide here, but should ping over and take some beating.
Roughie: 10 Lady Le Fay (Best Odds: $12.00) comes through that High Midnight race also where she got a long way back in the run and worked home strongly to run fifth. Tumbles big time in weight here, fitter and stable is absolutely flying.
Race Nine (17:50) : Hyland Race Colours Doncaster Prelude 1500m:
Back Me: The race sets up perfectly for 14 Cosmic Cube (Best Odds: $7.50). This former kiwi was very impressive in winning the National Sprint first up at Canberra, sitting on speed and fighting on very well for a strong and determined win. Looks the lone on speed runner, fitter, on the minimum and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 5 Amovatio (Best Odds: $7.00) is on the back up from racing here in the Newcastle Newmarket last Saturday when racing a close up third to Artistry. Drawn terribly, but Oliver back on and he has won on the horse previously.
Roughie: 2 Beaten Up (Best Odds: $6.00) can run a bottler here. He looks as though he is being aimed towards the Brisbane Winter, but his two trials leading in have simply been fantastic. Better over further, but I’ll be shocked if he doesn’t attack the line.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Badawiya
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 It's Somewhat
VALUE: Race Five Number 8 Balmain Boy
Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 4, 5, 15
Leg Two: 4, 6, 7, 9, 10
Leg Three: 2, 7, 8, 9, 10
Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 9, 14
$50 Investment= 66.66% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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