Racing returns to Mornington for the first time since Mornington Cup Day several weeks back this Wednesday. On that afternoon, it was a huge advantage to be either leading or come home along the rail, and with the rail out here, expect that to occur once again.
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Race One (13:00) : N Dunn’s Breaking In Services Maiden Plate 1610m Form Guide
Back Me: Tricky maiden to kick the program off. With the advantage of the rail and the fact he’ll settle close to the tempo, I’m putting Razzle Dazzle Rock on top. Had a gun sit off the speed last start at Geelong but couldn’t hold off More Rewarding, who looks like a city class horse, so that form looks good enough for this.
Big Danger: Purple Smile (Best Odds: $3.60) looked to his chance last start at Echuca, sitting second in the run and staying in that position on the line behind Shecky’s Laughter, who then ran a shocker at Ararat on Monday, so the form doesn’t look flash, but it’s hard to go against the Hayes/Williams combo.
Roughie: Host Nation (Best Odds: $21.00) is finding it very hard to break the maiden tag, but does continue to place and whack away well, so he has to be rated a chance, especially coming back in distance, which looks ideal.
Race Two (13:35) : A Positive Move Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: I think one of the Darley trio will win this. Slight leaning towards the race fitness Alaska (Best Odds: $6.50) has. I thought he ran quite well down the Flemington straight on Australian Cup Day behind Bring Me The Maid. Drops significantly in grade and gets in well at the weights.
Big Danger: Dragons Eye (Best Odds: $4.00) had two runs during the Spring, resulting in a fifth to Risen From Doubt and a sixth to Goldconda. At the time, Risen From Doubt was one of the real high rated youngsters going around, so the form is okay, plus he has been gelded, and it’s rare for Darley to keep geldings unless they have racetrack ability.
Roughie: The big unknown is Minnesinger (Best Odds: $11.00), who is on debut for Anthony Freedman. Beautifully bred youngster being by Lonhro out of former top class filly Serenade Rose, who has been a successful broodmare. Bred to be a good one, so watch betting moves.
Race Three (14:10) : Orbit Fitness Handicap (70) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Girl Guide (Best Odds: $2.25) was a dominant debut winner at Bendigo, beating home stakes performer Holy Cow, then went to the Valley and didn’t handle the track at all yet only got beat a nose. She has plenty of talent, and should lead these from the good draw. Looks one of the better bets on the program.
Big Danger: Set To Skelter (Best Odds: $4.20) looked home last start at Geelong after leading, but the early pressure she received early on took its toll late and she tired late to run second. She either leads or gets the gun sit off Girl Guide, and does get the weight advantage.
Roughie: Summer Gem (Best Odds: $7.50) is a city class horse, but really lost her way in the Winter, running three howlers. Had a long spell and resumed the other day at Kyneton where she made up good ground from the back. She is seemingly finding some of her previous form, which saw beat home subsequent stakes winner Octavia at Caulfield back in January of last year.
Race Four (14:45) : Cashmart Pawnbrokers Handicap (70) 2020m Form Guide
Back Me: Silk And Diamonds (Best Odds: $7.00) for me here. She has been quite impressive in several runs back from a break, in particular last time out at Yarra Valley, where she really sprouted wings late and got up to win on the line. Races well at the track and should lap up the extra distance.
Big Danger: Waldorf (Best Odds: $4.00) has strung two city wins together, both at the Valley. Led, dictated and blitzed them two back to break the maiden tag, then wore them down late to win in the last stride next time out. Mares that are in form stay in form, so despite the weight rise, she is racing too well to dismiss.
Roughie: A Chiller (Best Odds: $3.80) loomed to win at the Valley last time out, and did look the winner 100m out, but just didn’t quite finish it off, so it’s interesting that Darren Weir is stepping her up to the 2020m here. But who am I to question the leading stable in Victoria.
Race Five (15:20) : Progress Signs Handicap (64) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Really keen here on Sava Nugget (Best Odds: $4.60), I was quite keen on him first up at Geelong, but wasn’t given the best of steers by Brad Rawiller, electing to stay between runners and not getting daylight until the race was over. He was heavily backed on that occasion, and judging by the way he hit the line, he has come back in very good order, and with normal luck here, he just about wins.
Big Danger: Grand Gallop (Best Odds: $2.90) was an impressive all the way debut winner at Cranbourne, and running reasonable time despite doing some early work. She has been given time to mature, and the rewards look to be coming for connections.
Roughie: Esprit Warrior (Best Odds: $14.00) loomed to win last time out at Echuca, and did hit the lead, only to be bloused by El Mandoma, who came with a wet sail out wide. Coming back to 1200m and dropping 3kg should make this a worthy contender.
Race Six (16:00) : Beleura Retirement Village Handicap (70) 1610m Form Guide
Back Me: That finish burst of El Mandoma (Best Odds: $10.00) at Echuca was quite impressive, her his first outing in a month, so I’m tipping there is improvement left. Drawn well, and with the claim, he looks well placed.
Big Danger: Rebuild (Best Odds: $4.60) led them a merry dance to bolt in two back at Geelong, then attempted to repeat the dose at Cranbourne, but couldn’t hold off the powerful finish of Tooleybuc Kid. That form has been franked with that horse running a narrow second at Sportingbet Park on Saturday. Should press forward from the barrier and take some beating.
Roughie: Stroemsky (Best Odds: $8.50) was okay last time out at Sportingbet Park, settling near last and making up some ground late without looking like a winning chance. This’ll be his first run in over a month, and he does tend to race quite well fresh, so keep an eye on the market.
Race Seven (16:40) : Brown’s Sawdust & Shavings Handicap (64) 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Al Hamza (Best Odds: $9.00) did everything wrong on debut at Stony Creek, but did get the job done despite racing wide throughout. He did run third in the trial Wildebeast ran second in, and I liked Wildebeast before scratchings, so I’ll stick in his corner here.
Big Danger: Srikandi (Best Odds: $3.40) was unwanted in betting first up at the Valley, but it nearly didn’t matter when she looked the winner close to home before being bloused late. She did well prior to that, so extra fitness and the good draw should see her go very close.
Roughie: Alternative Choice (Best Odds: $13.00) closed off really when resuming at Kyneton, coming from well back on the turn and hitting the line with purpose. He appears back on track and is a must include here.
Race Eight (17:20) : Morningtondental.com.au Handicap (64) 2020m Form Guide
Back Me: Prepared to give Flawlessly (Best Odds: $10.00) another chance here. Resumed after an eight month break at Moonee Valley and just didn’t get around the track at all when seventh to Waldorf. She did pick up very late, so that is an indication she should relish the step up to 2020m, fitter and Rawiller is back on.
Big Danger: Not sure what Oerter (Best Odds: $5.50) beat at Wangaratta last week, but gee he looked very impressive in doing, without really being fully extended by rider Jack Hill. Has to step it up a notch here, but is absolutely flying at the moment and deserves a crack at metro class.
Roughie: Transfer Allowance (Best Odds: $15.00) went back to the provincials a couple of weeks back at Geelong and made up good ground late when sixth to Stormy Bill. Was well backed there too, so he obviously is going well enough to go close to winning a race.
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Best Bet: Race Three Number 4 Girl Guide (Best Odds: $2.25)
Next Best: Race Five Number 3 Sava Nugget (Best Odds: $4.60)
Best Roughie: Race Seven Number 2 Al Hamza (Best Odds: $9.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3
Leg Two: 4, 5, 6
Leg Three: 2, 3, 6, 10
Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 6, 12, 13
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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