The main Victorian meeting this Monday will take place at Sportingbet Park Sandown Hillside, with several blacktype races to be run and won, including previews of the Blue Diamond. The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (1:20pm) : John Moule Handicap (96) 2400m: Form Guide
Back Me: I was against Taiyoo (Best Odds: $3.20) last start at Flemington but he made sure I was having Scrambled Eggs for brekky on my face after he showed tremendous grit over the final furlong to hold his rivals at bay to win and win impressively. Up to the 2400m for the first time, and up in weight, but he is unbeaten at the trip and draws beautifully.
Big Danger: Practiced (Best Odds: $4.60) is getting very close to a win. Looked desperately unlucky two back at the Valley behind Priority Road, then went to Flemintgon and just failed to pick up Zanteco in a close finish. Drawn well and down in the weights should see him go very close.
Roughie: You Think So (Best Odds: $6.00) was aided by a lightweight and a nice steer from Jake Bayliss to get the job done last time out at Flemington, holding off all challengers up the straight to win and win gamely. That was his sixth run back from a ten month spell, so now with the win on the board, he could go right on with it.
Race Two (1:55pm) : Mal Seccull W.J. Adams Stakes 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: No reason to jump off The Quarterback (Best Odds: $2.80) IMO. He has been devastating at his past two, both down the Flemington, including a win in the Kensington Stakes. Quite amazing to think that he is a last start Stakes winner yet still remains on the minimum. Add that to the fact there should be a good tempo, and I think he is clear horse to beat.
Big Danger: Class and residual fitness should see Moment Of Change (Best Odds: $3.50) take a power of beating here. He was outstanding in the Spring without winning, running some absolute belters behind the best of the best, including a 0.8L defeat in the Manikato behind Lankan Rupee and a 2.9L fifth in the Darley Classic to Terravista. He then went to Perth for the Winterbottom, but by then he was probably a tired horse and in the run he copped immense pressure on the speed. Comes here with no jump out, but he is yet to miss a place in seven fresh runs and has run two excellent seconds at 1000m.
Roughie: Shamal Wind is too short to be the roughie, so I’ll chuck in Vatican (Best Odds: $14.00), who hasn’t raced since mid November, but has looked pretty good in recent jump outs., Should get a nice run behind Canali and Klishina and sneak a first four spot.
Race Three (2:30pm) : Sportingbet Powered By William Hill Blue Diamond Preview (C&G) 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Tipping the Godolphin juvenile juggernaut to continue thanks to Mesa (Best Odds: $4.40), who looked very impressive in a recent jump out here, bolting in by three and running one of the quickest times of the morning. His debut came here and he wasn’t far off Thurlow, a Smerdon two year old who looks above average. Tricky draw, but Damian Browne steers and the stable is low flying.
Big Danger: Big watch on the Team Hawkes first starter Top Me Up (Best Odds: $4.50). He is a beautifully bred colt who looks to be a good one in the making judging on how impressive he looked on July 16 at the Werribee jump outs, sitting on the speed and drawing clear to win, gliding over the surface like a real pro. Drawn awkwardly, but looks classy.
Roughie: Trench Fighter (Best Odds: $13.00) hasn’t been seen since the Debutant Stakes at Caulfield when making up a stack of ground to run sixth to Of The Brave, beaten just over four lengths. Resumes here off the back of a nice jump out here when running second to Mesa, beaten three lengths but wasn’t extended by the rider. He does have the race day experience and preparation under the belt, which can be a huge advantage with these youngsters.
Race Four (3:05pm) : Sportingbet Powered By William Hill Blue Diamond Preview (F) 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: I see only two winning hopes, and they are at the top. It’s easy to tip the fav, but I’m going with the race fit Take Pride (Best Odds: $7.50). There was good support for her at odds on debut at Seymour, and she blitzed them there, then went to Flemington and again looked quite impressive in winning. Big test here against the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper fav, but she is race fit, will be on speed and appears to do everything right. Happy to have her.
Big Danger: It’s easy to see why Fontiton (Best Odds: $1.80) is the Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper fav, because her debut win on Cox Plate Day was the most impressive win we have seen by a juvenile this season. Her most recent jump out was nothing flash, and she wasn’t touched by Zahra. She could have the brilliance to blow these away, but given that her Grand Final/s is still a fair way away, I think she is a betting risk.
Roughie: Helsingor ($7.50) worked home strongly on debut at Flemington a couple of weeks back when second to Ragazzo Del Corso, beaten two lengths after being tardy away. She’s got the run under her belt now, draws well and Bossy sticks.
Race Five (3:40pm) : Master Yearlings John Dillon Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: I’m really keen on Anlon (Best Odds: $6.50) to bounce back to the winners list. His first up run in the Christmas Stakes was just average behind Tried And Tired, but he was much better at Flemington in the Chester Manifold behind Red Excitement, making up good ground from the back. He stays down in the weights, fitter, drawn well and has more upside than most here.
Big Danger: Tried And Tired (Best Odds: $2.20) did try his absolute heart out in the Chester Manifold when beaten narrowly by Red Excitement in a great finish. Before that he was given a plum ride by Chris Parnham to win the Christmas Stakes in impressive fashion. Won’t be too far away from gate one and Ollie sticks.
Roughie: Reparations (Best Odds: $4.00) scored a stunning win on Cup Day down the straight, then was given a freshen up and kicked off the Summer prep in the Standish where he stuck on really well behind Decircles, beaten two lengths. Up in weight and away from Flemington are the two queries, but he is racing very well at the moment and looks suited by the small field.
Race Six (4:20pm) : Thomas North Manfred Stakes 1300m: Form Guide
Back Me: Fast Cash (Best Odds: $3.40) might have been suited by the good speed and the cold sit, but he still let down very strongly in the straight to win the VOBIS Gold Carat under the Moonee Valley lights. I said in the preview of that meeting that I believe Fast Cash could develop into one of the best three year olds in Melbourne, perhaps even Australia. This is another step up to test that theory, but he does look very exciting and again maps well.
Big Danger: Petrology (Best Odds: $8.00) comes back to the scene of his career highlight, which came last start in the Sandown Guineas when he swept past a classy field to win and win with a fair bit of ease. Looked very strong at the Werribee jump outs when winning and is definitely forward enough to run a beauty here.
Roughie: Bascule (Best Odds: $8.00) was well backed to win first up at Flemington and duly saluted, then stayed there and ran a close third to The Bowler, who went on to run very well in the Magic Millions Cup. He does have the race fitness on his side as well as having upside maturity and ability wise. Could be the knockout horse.
Race Seven (5:00pm) : Ian Miller Handicap (70) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Magnesic (Best Odds: $10.00) on top for me at some value. She stuck on well for fourth on debut at Benalla before going to Werribee and after being given a lovely front running steer by Linda Meech, the daughter of Magnus proved a touch too good for her rivals and just held on to win. More depth here, but she looks to have some upside, and will make her own luck.
Big Danger: Samartested (Best Odds: $3.60) tried very hard when resuming down the Flemington straight, running a half length second to Convincible in a close finish. Her form from her first prep has held up well and she did win impressively second up last time. Hard to beat, especially with the claim for Mick Dee.
Roughie: Bonify (Best Odds: $21.00) put together two eye catching thirds before going to Ballarat last Sunday and coming with a well timed run to beat a handy Godolphin maiden in Rostock, which is good form IMO for a race like this. I think $18 is overs, so I’d keep a close eye on her here, because I am expecting her to run well.
Race Eight (5:40pm) : Robert Hunter Handicap (78) 1300m: Form Guide
Back Me: Herstory (Best Odds: $7.50) was given a plum on speed ride from Regan Bayliss to win two back on the Lakeside track before going to Flemington and sticking on very well to run third to a stakes class horse in Tashbeeh, and a future stakes horse in Bayoonah. Drops 3kg and comes back to this level, so I’m surprised that $7.50 is on offer.
Big Danger: Counted (Best Odds: $7.00) is bursting to win a race, and it looked as though she was going to do it last time out at Flemington, but she just couldn’t quite run the Flemington 1400m out and Choose kicked too well to win. Back to 1300m looks perfect, draws well and Chris Parnham sticks.
Roughie: Whistle Baby (Best Odds: $13.00) worked home well first up at the Valley behind Sweet Emily, then she went to Flemintgon and was simply dreadful behind Convincible, beaten nearly nine lengths. A return to a turning track and up in trip could spark improvement, but she is a mare who is very hard to trust.
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BEST BET: Race One Number 2 Taiyoo
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 7 Anlon
VALUE: Race Four Number 2 Take Pride
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 7
Leg Two: 1, 3, 5
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 8
Leg Four: 1, 3, 9, 12
$50 Investment= 27.77% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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