Blacktype racing continues at Eagle Farm this Saturday with Recognition Stakes Day, a good lead up for horses heading towards further blacktype events next month and then the Magic Millions Carnival. The weather forecast is for storms, the track is good (4) and the rail is out 2.5 metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:52) : Southbank Insurance Brokers Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Race really depleted by scratchings. 8 Cool Mover (Bet Now: $1.50) was sent to Canterbury for her debut and for the most part, she looked to travel sweetly in the run and on the turn she looked a threat but experience and fitness probably beat her when fifth to Teaspoon in a two year old race that looked to have really good depth. Trial win prior was strong and that trip away should toughen her right up.
Big Danger: 3 Triple Arrow (Bet Now: $4.40) was kept safe in the market when racing at Doomben three weeks back and I thought his effort was very good when third to the above average Saxton Rock. He has had the two runs under the belt, so he should know what the caper is about and he can press forward here comfortably without doing work.
Long Shot: 2 Bold Kingston (Bet Now: $8.00) was solid on debut at Doomben behind Ours To Keep before appreciating the drop in depth when bent sent to Rockhampton and producing a lovely turn of foot to get the job done. She has that winning feeling under the belt and the stable do have a tidy record in recent times when it comes to producing handy youngsters.
Race Two (14:27) : Weddings @ Tatts Handicap (75) 2206m:
Back Me: 2 Flitero (Bet Now: $2.25) sprouted wings late to win the Country Classic at Rosehill two back before racing over 2200m at Doomben where he again sat off speed before Fradd eased him wider and he just savaged the line to get the job done. I can only see him improving on a bigger track here, and I think only bad luck gets him beat here.
Big Danger: 8 Shanakee (Bet Now: $5.00) has the Baker polish and she comes here with a bit of upside. She ran over 1900m at Canterbury last time out and chased hard all the way when a game third to in form galloper The Bull. She gives the impression she will like the rise in trip and this field doesn’t carry as much depth as what she has faced in recent times.
Long Shot: 10 Really Sure (Bet Now: $19.00) produced a big effort to win over the mile at Ipswich last time out, sitting back last in a slowly run race before coming wider on the turn and finishing hard late to nab Bernitchy on the peg. She has performed well at this trip previously and she has upside left in the tank, so she has to rate as an upset chance.
Race Three (15:03) : Winning Edge Presentations Handicap (90) 1000m:
Back Me: 5 Lucky Meteor (Bet Now: $8.00) smashed the track record on his home track at Grafton two back before racing at Canterbury where he attempted to lead all the way and just felt the pinch late when third to the above average sprinter Mr Manhattan. The worry with him is that he not get it his own way on speed, but 10 from 25 is a great winning strike rate and given that record, he looks really well weighted.
2 Trubia is a very handy galloper that was touted by many, myself included, as a possible lightweight Stradbroke contender, but when it came to qualifying for the race, he just couldn’t get the job done and from there the prep looked indifferent. No trials leading in, but he has class, quality and is an absolute bomb when produced fresh.
Long Shot: 3 Inside Job (Bet Now: $14.00) is such an interesting runner here. Former David Pfiefer runner that is now under the care of Barry Lockwood, who has had good success with tried horses eg Kudero. You only need to look to last prep where he ran behind the likes of Bullpit and Felines, both of which are Stakes winners. Two time first up winner and 1000m suits fresh.
Race Four (15:38) : Carlton Mid Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 6 Billy The Kid (Bet Now: $2.90) was backed as if unbeatable when resuming on Cup Day over 1200m here and he didn’t give his supports a moments worry with a dominant all the way victory. The form has held up nicely from that via Ticketome and Roses Of Joy, and the time he ran that afternoon was sharp compared to the older horses the same afternoon, even allowing for the storms that happened later in the day.
Big Danger: 7 Downloading (Bet Now: $4.80) is the close relation to Buffering who resumed over 1100m at Doomben a fortnight back and had really good market support. The move didn’t prove successful but his effort in defeat was more than satisfactory. I think, like Buffering, he will be better when he is on speed and out of trouble. If that eventuates, he’ll take some beating.
Long Shot: 12 Victory Street (Bet Now: $51.00) was an impressive debut winner on Cup Day before racing in that Doomben race mentioned above where she got back off the speed and didn’t quite handle the tight circuit. Better suited back at Eagle Farm and she does look very well suited at the weights with only 51kg on her back after the claim for Bek Williams.
Race Five (16:18) : Functions @ Tatts Plate (Class 3) 1500m:
Back Me: 11 Say You Love Me (Bet Now: $3.10) was very good two back over 1200m here when a close up second to Better Land, who has run well since, before going to Rosehill for a Highway where she had no luck from the gate behind Darts Away in a race where I think the form could be franked at Rosehill and by the time this race is run, you will know for sure. But outside that, she draws well and will love the rise to 1500m.
Big Danger: 2 Bernitchy (Bet Now: $17.00) is racing very well this time in, but just can’t quite crack it for a win. He ran over the mile at Ipswich last time out where he had a soft trip off the pace and when presented, he did look the winner but he couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed late by Really Sure. He has a really good record at Eagle Farm and is tough.
Long Shot: 10 Madame De Ban (Bet Now: $4.60) resumed over 1200m at the Gold Coast a fortnight back and was a real eye catcher late, sitting back and finishing off her race with purpose to run a game third to All That Is, beaten two lengths. Second up last time in she beat Raffinato, who went on to win a couple of races in town, so that form reads well for this.
Race Six (16:58) : Colin McAlpine AM Memorial Classic 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Butterboom (Bet Now: $8.00) is one of many threats. She was very consistent during the Sydney Winter, winning a couple of races and running placings. Stable is one of the best in terms of placement and this looks a clear target for her based on a couple of trials, which just wreak of firing on race day fresh, which carries blacktype. Keen on her, more so if there is any form of a push from the market.
Big Danger: 2 Private Secretary (Bet Now: $2.40) is the best weighted horse in the race by a fair distance and she has class and quality to go with it. A long race plan nearly came to fruition on Derby Day when racing down the straight and just missing out on picking up Sheidel. She is a mare absolutely bursting to win some blacktype, and she clearly gets her chance here.
Long Shot: 5 Notonyourlife (Bet Now: $8.50) is the local mare on the up for Tony Gollan. I’m not sure about how strong the fields are that she has beaten at her last two outings, but the manner in which she has done it and the turn of foot she has produced has really caught my attention. On ratings and weights, she probably can’t win, but she has home track advantage and that is a big tick, especially when she’s taking on horses who have had to travel several hours.
Race Seven (17:38) : Sky Racing Tatts Recognition Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 12 Cylinder Beach (Bet Now: $4.00) is the class horse and the one with the most potential engaged here. Resumes for Desleigh Forster after a mixed Winter Carnival. He performed very well earlier on and looked a leading Derby contender but he just didn’t quite go on with it when the prep continued. 1400m fresh is ideal for him, as is Eagle Farm given he is a big strider who needs galloping room. Happy to be in his corner if stablemate Too Good To Refuse is any indicator.
Big Danger: 2 Rudy (Bet Now: $5.00) is another class animal, this one trained by Helen Page. He resumed over 1400m at the unny Coast last Wednesday and was a real eye catcher, warming to the task late to run a close up fifth to Frespaonol. Meets that horse 1.5kg better off here and has more upside, so I think he is the horse to follow from that form reference.
Long Shot: 17 Craiglea Wandoo (Bet Now: $81.00) is a talented gelding that trialled well at the Sunny Coast before resuming at Mackay where he lumped topweight and that probably was the steadier for him when running fifth, beaten a tick over two lengths. He ran some really good races last time in, including a fourth during the Randwick Autumn Carnival. Any inkling of that here and he comes into play as a knockout chance at odds.
Race Eight (18:15) : G.H. Mumm Handicap (80) 1200m:
Back Me: 14 Oberland (Bet Now: $2.60) is a talented gelding that resumes for the Heathcoate yard. He ran some quality races during the latter part of the Winter, highlighted by dominant wins at Doomben and Sunshine Coast, the latter being the end of the prep. No trials, so fitness is unknown, but he is lethal when produced fresh and looks to draw quite well.
Long Shot: 17 Dream Of Slips (Bet Now: $10.00) ran over this track/distance four weeks ago where he sat back near last in the run and worked home strongly late in the piece when fifth to stablemate Bidii Babe. He is a gelding who likes to have his races spaced, so don’t be worried by the break between runs. Just needs speed up in front to be a threat here.
Long Shot: 11 Denarius (Bet Now: $9.00) resumed over 1100m at Doomben three weeks back where he sat back off speed and chased hard all the way behind the impressive winner My Girl Hayley. Found to have jarred up post race, so there was an excuse for him. The form out of that race looked to hold up well last week, and this horse does have enormous upside.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 14 Oberland
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Flitero
VALUE: Race Six Number 6 Butterboom
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 10, 11, 13, 15
Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 8, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 12, 17
Leg Four: 3, 11, 14, 15, 17, 19
$50 Investment= 6.66% of the dividend if successful
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