Group l racing continues at Doomben this Saturday where we will see the Kingsford Smith Cup and the Queensland Oaks. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out 4.5 metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:10) Wilpak Wholesale Meats Handicap (95) 1200m
Hard to get away from 3 Havasay (Bet Now: $3.90). Yes, he had the right run when winning here a fortnight back but it was dominant and it had confirmed he has come back in super order. Draws to sit much closer in the run and he actually drops a kilo. Quite keen on him to win despite the relative weight swings.
10 Tango Rain (Bet Now: $5.75) is a Gerald Ryan trained gelding who was a touch disappointing first up in the Gold Rush at Hawkesbury before racing in the race mentioned above where he had no luck in the straight. I hope Corey takes no prisoners and goes forward. That is when he races best; leading and dominating.
1 Coolring (Bet Now: $10.00) is getting on in years but gee Joe Cleary seems to have rejuvenated him. Yes, he was big odds in the Town Plate at Wagga but he was dominant. Had three wide cover and once Kathy pulled him out, it was game over. Has class and that will carry him a long way towards a victory here.
Race 2. (11:46) Grand Prix Stakes 2200m
You’d like to think 2 Dark Dream (Bet Now: $1.65) puts them away. The Rough Habit win was outstanding, winning by an ever widening four lengths, and he did it despite doing plenty wrong in the straight. He should eat up 2200m and really, you’d think only bad luck beats him. $2 or thereabouts is his right mark.
12 Omineca (Bet Now: $12.00), outside Dark Dream, was the best run of the race in the Rough Habit. He bombed the start by six lengths and lost all chance but he did a good job to get as close as he did. On that effort, the eleven furlongs should have no issue and is in the right stable. Looks the one at odds.
10 Time Lord (Bet Now: $15.00) is the very interesting runner. Kiwi trained by Richard Collett who ran last Wednesday over the mile and he produced a lovely finale from the back to get the win over a promising type in Kay Kay Boy. Draws a sweet gate and Browne rides. Big watch, especially up to this trip where he has been affective.
Race 3. (12:21) Premiers Cup 2200m
7 Sedanzer (Bet Now: $3.80), with luck in running from the gate, should just about be beating this lot. Her win in the Scone Cup last time was enormous. She was wide no cover throughout yet kept finding and on the line she was getting away. Should love the step up in trip, has upside and a turn of foot. Happy to be with her.
3 Kiwia (Bet Now: $5.25) will love getting back on top of the ground. Was keen on him in the Warrnambool Cup last start but he just got a touch too far back in the run and couldn’t pick his feet up. He should do no work from the good draw and back on firmer footing, he will be very effective. A clear danger for mine.
5 Morendi (Bet Now: $41.00) will love the step up in trip. He ran over the mile here a fortnight back and just got a mile back off them and really had no chance behind Sheiswhatsheis. He is a stayer and is a proven track/distance horse. Doubt he wins, but don’t underestimate him for exotics, especially if the tempo is solid.
Race 4. (13:00) Lord Mayors Cup 1630m
1 It’s Somewhat (Bet Now: $3.50) is the class and I think third up at the mile, he should be right. Hollindale run was just fair without being great behind Oregon’s Day but we know he is better than that. Had an injury which forced him to miss the Doomben Cup but he looks very well placed here at WFA against this lot.
3 Duca Valentinois (Bet Now: $4.10) wasn’t suited by the slow tempo two back in the Hawkesbury Cup but appreciated a genuine speed last time out in the Scone Cup and he looked the winner but Sedanzer packed too many punches. Draws a sweet gate and is suited at WFA. Just need that win for the confidence boost.
Lloyd could well pull their pants down here on 13 Sheiswhatsheis (Bet Now: $8.00). She loves to dominate things from the front and the map says she’ll get every chance. Though fell in to win the Members last time, she was only third up there and is a mare who gets better deeper into a prep. Think she leads and gives a bold sight.
Race 5. (13:40) BRC Sires Produce Stakes 1350m
It was hard not to be impressed by the win of 3 Zousain (Bet Now: $3.30) in the Champagne a fortnight back here. Once McEvoy got him into clear, he careered away and won as he pleased in quite a dominant display. The extra 150m should only help his cause and with normal luck he does look the one.
I’m very wary of 7 Lean Mean Machine (Bet Now: $8.00). Chris Waller trains this colt, who is three weeks between runs since contesting the Ken Russell at the Gold Coast where I thought he was a total forgive run. Just got too far back and wide but his finale was mor than acceptable, screaming out of a horse wanting further, which he gets here.
Another horse I’ll be keeping tabs on is 10 Plumaro (Bet Now: $9.00), a very good filly who resumes for Kevin Kemp. Her Summer/Autumn efforts were very good and they could have been tempted to head down the Slipper path, but they have kept her on ice for this Carnival. No public trials, but you’d assume she’s had a few jump outs for her to resume at 1350m.
Race 6. (14:20) Glenlogan Park Stakes 1350m
I’ll take a chance on 2 Shillelagh (Bet Now: $13.00). This mare had a mixed Autumn prep, which ended in the Matron behind Spanish Reef. Targeted this Carnival and looks well if the two trials are any indicator. Can sprint well fresh and is a bomb on firm ground, which she gets here. I think she’s set up to run a beauty.
7 Pedrena (Bet Now: $8.00) looks the X factor. Mick Price trains this mare, who resumed in the Robert Sangster and just got too far back in the run but her late splits were quite good. She draws to get a lovely run just off the pace and she has a very good second up record. Should get a lovely run from the gate and is a knockout chance.
If they go silly in front, look for 5 Spright (Bet Now: $21.00) to sit back and launch late. She hasn’t raced since the Godolphin Crown where she got too far back in a slowly run affair in a luckless run. The quality is definitely there and she can rattle off an unbelievable split with conditions to suit. Look for her to be launching.
Race 7. (14:59) Kingsford-Smith Cup 1350m
Siding with 1 Impending (Bet Now: $5.25 FAT ODDS). Scored a fab first up win in the Victory Stakes before going to the Doomben 10,000 where he had cover throughout and though took a little while to get going, his last 150m was excellent I thought. He’ll eat up the 1350m and third up should be ready fitness wise. The one to beat.
Well everyone said that 11 Champagne Cuddles (Bet Now: $6.00 FAT ODDS) would go to the Fred Best but here she is in the Kingsford Smith against the older horses. It’ll be an ask, but gee you had to be impressed by the way she won the Gold Coast Guineas first up. It was outstanding and she broke the track record in doing so. Great test, but her turn of foot is a big factor.
10 Volpe Veloce (Bet Now: $21.00 FAT ODDS) is a gun for the Richardson/Parker team. She resumed four weeks back on a bog at Te Rapa where she started odds on and got rolled at the hands of Love Affair. She is a swimmer but is lethal on firm ground too. Her form is substandard compared to these, but they bring her over, so you have to respect that, and she is a winner.
Race 8. (15:37) Queensland Oaks 2200m
3 Youngstar (Bet Now: $3.40) looks the obvious. Chris Waller trains this filly, who produced one of the wins of the day when winning the Roses a fortnight back. The win we dominant and it had a touch of class about it also despite doing it in rather slow time. She’ll eat up 2200m and is a deserving favourite.
I think the forgotten horse in this race is clearly 4 Savacool (Bet Now: $6.50). Outstanding win at Caulfield before going to the SA Oaks where she was a total forgive for mine, sitting wide no cover throughout and in the end, I thought she battled away well behind Sopressa. If she gets better luck here, with the fresh legs, convinced she’ll run well.
10 Coral Coast (Bet Now: $23.00) could be the big improver at odds for Anthony Freedman. She just got too far back in the Roses behind Youngstar but I liked the way she finished off her race, closing well to run fourth. She has always had that wrap on her and she gets out to an ideal trip so I’ll be keen to see what she does.
Race 9. (16:16) Fred Best Classic 1350m
Going with 4 Assimilate (Bet Now: $8.00) in a solid ending to the day. He just gave them too much start in the Scone Guineas last time but worked home quite strongly behind dominant winner Moss Trip. Hopefully can take advantage of the gate and if so, he’s the one to beat. Hoping for a J Mac special in the last.
2 Whypeeo (Bet Now: $3.80) looks the obvious. Ran blistering time in the Gold Coast Guineas last time out and looked home but Champagne Cuddles and her brilliance kicked in. Draw is tricky but he should comfortably get over and lead. Probably needs a cheap sectional to see out a hard 1350m. I think he can.
Giving 13 Femme Fireball (Bet Now: $27.00) one last look. Thought she was plain in the Queensland Day behind Marsupial after seemingly having every chance but she finally draws a decent gate, can park off a hot speed, gets Glyn and the interesting, potentially, big tick is blinkers first time. $31+ for her is crazy.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 4 Assimilate
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Dark Dream
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 2 Shillelagh
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 10, 11
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10
Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 13
$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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