26/2/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Blue Diamond Stakes day

A ripping program has been assembled for Caulfield on Saturday, highlighted of course by the Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m), which shapes up to be a fascinating contest. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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5 Mars Mission (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) looks to be a really smart colt for Team Hawkes. 2/2 this time in, resuming with a maiden win at Warwick Farm before going to this trip at The Valley where he made an absolute mess of them. To the eye he made a mess of them and the clock said he did as well. Keen on him here.

2 Generation (Bet Now: $1.95 TOP ODDS) is hard to beat. Maher/Eustace trained colt that resumed in the Manfred where he was up on speed and was always looking the winner. Briefly challenged in the straight but class kicked in and he drew clear late to win nicely. Good depth to this race, but he is promising.

3 Chartres (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) will be better suited over a touch longer but I think he has talent. Resumes for Matt Laurie after a pretty solid Spring. Bolted up on Cranbourne Cup Day before being far from disgraced in the Sandown Guineas after getting a fair way back in the run. He’s trialled up nicely leading in, should do no work from the draw…first four contender.

It’s hard to get away from 2 Flying Mascot (Bet Now: $1.85 TOP ODDS). Resumed in the Bellmaine two weeks ago here and I loved the way she dug in late when challenged. It took a gun mare in Probabeel to get past her. Such a good return from her and now she gets to a more suitable trip with the run under the belt, she’ll take beating.

4 Bonvicini (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is nearly running out of chances but I think she can run well fresh. Ran in the Lord Stakes on Boxing Day and I think you could make a case to say she fights the finish out had she got clear air in the straight, instead of a luckless fourth to Holbein. Given a mini break and looks to have trialled up nicely.

3 Kahma Lass (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) looks to be in for a good prep. She was first up in the Bellmaine where the race shape wasn’t exactly to her liking but I thought she stuck on pretty well in defeat behind Probabeel. Unbeaten second up and she is a winner at the track. Knockout chance.

3 Castlereagh Kid (Bet Now: $3.60 TOP ODDS) will just stay all day. That was clearly evident when he won last Wednesday at Sandown. Led throughout under Ollie and despite being off the bit around 600m out, he just kept going and was far too good, beating the older horses. He has no turn of foot, but he’s strong from the front and will be hard to get past.

14 El Patroness (Bet Now: $3.90 TOP ODDS) looks to have returned in pretty good order. Resumed three weeks ago over 1400m here and though left flat footed in a farcically run race, her finale was quite good when third to Minouche. Fitter and up in trip, with upside to come, she’ll take beating.

11 Savileo (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) is heading in the right direction for Peter Moody. It was a low maiden he won at Kyneton last time but it was the manner in which he won and how strong he was late that impressed me, really drawing clear over the final few strides. Just think staying at 1800m is a knock, but a soft gate should ensure he won’t be far away and strong late.

I will say that 10 Forbidden City (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) beat up camels at Sandown fresh, but the two factors that offset the opposition she beat that day. First, she won by weight lengths without being fully extended and second, she ran really good time. Clearly different gravy here to what she faced fresh, but she could well have come back a much better horse this time.

The Kevin Hayes looks to be strong form. It’ll just be a query of how much did it take out of them. 4 Argentia (Bet Now: $1.95 TOP ODDS) won the race and I think she potentially improves big time off it. She paraded like a mess, was big in condition so for her to let down like she did, it was a massive effort. If that hasn’t busted her, she likely wins again. Gate one looks potentially nasty.

3 Mokulua (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) comes through the Light Fingers at Randwick, which on paper looks a stronger race than the Kevin Hayes. I thought her effort from the back was pretty and far from disgraced in defeat behind Fangirl. That is A1 form. Just needs luck from the gate but gets J Kah.

I’m treating the Carlyon Cup form as rubbish and looking elsewhere. 1 Cascadian (Bet Now: $1.95) looks to be ticking along beautifully. Market said he was there to run well first up in the CF Orr and he ran up to that market push with a closing third to Tofane. He generally gets better as the prep goes on so after such an encouraging resumption, he has to be hard to beat here.

7 Delphi (Bet Now: $3.70) looks a key chance fresh. Mixed Spring from this guy after promising so much after the Herbert Power, he didn’t quite go on with it. Two jumpouts and a trial suggest fitness won’t be an issue, but I thought his recent trial and then subsequent jumpout were very plain. Market will be interesting.

2 Steel Prince (Bet Now: $10.00) is a huge market watch. Talented stayer for the Freedman team that resumes after nearly 12 months off. Hasn’t raced since the 2021 Australian Cup when down the track behind Homesman in a blanket finish. Three jumpouts, the last two over the mile, tells me he’s forward enough to run well and his best is good enough to be around the mark.

3 Mo’Unga (Bet Now: $4.80) is here to rock and roll first up. High class animal for Annabel Neasham that resumes after a fabulous Spring, highlighted by a first up win in the Winx Stakes, beating Verry Elleegant. Placed behind Incentivise, close up in an Epsom/Cox Plate, third to Zaaki…that’s just the best form lines you can have for Australian racing. I am amazed he isn’t nearly favourite.

1 I’m Thunderstruck (Bet Now: $4.00) looks the one from the CF Orr. The stable said numerous times leading in that the horse wasn’t fit but despite that, the market kept him very safe and he was very good from the back in a slowly run race. Bodes really for the All Star Mile but he’ll take a power of beating here as well.

5 Sierra Sue (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Busutin/Young mare that is very consistent at this level at this trip. Resumed in the CF Orr and she stuck to the task quite well in defeat from just off the speed when fourth to Tofane. Good second up record and has the runs on the board at this track/distance over I’m Thunderstruck.

The Preludes were won by different form, away from the Previews, and I think the big one will be won by different form, away from the Preludes. I know it was only a Bendigo maiden, but there was something about the win of 10 Hafey (Bet Now: $19.00) that makes me think he’s pretty good. He won with such arrogance, he ran good time relative to the meeting, he had plenty in hand and has the Maher/Eustace polish, plus Williams sticks. The draw means he’ll be three/four wide with cover and he’ll be strong at the end.

After 4 Sebonack (Bet Now: $6.50) won on debut here three weeks ago in the Chairmans, I was thinking it was just an okay win against an okay bunch, but after the Blue Diamond Preludes seven days later, I think he has to be rated highly. There has been nothing stand up and stand out, and always have to respect Team Hawkes when it comes to stallion making races.

5 Counttheheadlights (Bet Now: $21.00) is the one at silly odds from the Prelude. That was just a prep run for this given the debut run came over 1200m at The Valley and he was strong to the line there, so a testing six furlongs should be no issue for him IMO and I think he’s the one that is clear value from the Preludes.

9 Minhaaj (Bet Now: $8.00) is prepped up big time for this. There aren’t many options for her to win a Group l but this is certainly one, and she has drawn a perfect gate. Two runs for the O’Shea camp in the Spring, resulting in a couple of dominant wins. Trials in Sydney have been outstanding, she stalks a hot speed and gets last look.

5 Marabi (Bet Now: $2.25) does look the one to beat. She puts herself on speed, she relaxes, she can sprint sitting on a good speed and she runes time. Spanked them in the Australia Stakes at The Valley. It was said prior to that run, but has she beaten a great deal? The form behind her from that race, as a whole, stinks. But every time the bar is raised, she passes with flying colours. Not sure I could dive into her short odds, but she’s the one to beat.

7 Away Game (Bet Now: $8.50) is a quality mare for the Maher/Eustace camp that has been kept on ice since contesting the Magic Millions Sprint where she ran a gallant race on speed but was no match for a Group l winner in waiting, Isotope. Far from disgraced behind Marabi here the start prior, so she’s in the mix.

5 Desert Icon (Bet Now: $1.95) should be winning again I feel. Very progressive import for Chris Waller that was ridden a peach in front by Thornton at Caulfield three weeks ago and the end result was a dominant win over 1800m after coming back from 2000m. Back up to the ten furlongs, he’ll take a power of beating.

6 Criminal Code (Bet Now: $8.00) is bursting for more ground and he gets that here. Just lacked the change up speed at Caulfield last time but he really warmed to the task late in a good effort when third to Desert Icon. He will appreciate 2000m and has upside to come. He appeals.

4 Pancho (Bet Now: $9.00) is fourth up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. He comes through the Desert Icon race mentioned above where he had his chance but stuck on and was game in defeat in fourth. Not sure he’s going well enough to turn the tables, but runs well all the same.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Cascadian

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 5 Desert Icon

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 10 Hafey

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 10, 11

Leg Three: 1, 5, 7, 9

Leg Four: 5

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