26/2/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

Eight races will be run and won at Moonee Valley this Friday night, headlined by the Finals of the Sprint and Stayers Series. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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Not an overly strong juvenile race to kick off the meeting but the one to beat does appear to be 1 Treporti (Bet Now: $2.00) for Danny O’Brien. Resumed in the Talindert down the straight at Flemington and worked to the line pretty well without threatening behind Ingratiating, who went very close to winning a Blue Diamond, so the form reads well and Blinkers on first time.

4 Micro (Bet Now: $4.60) looks a potential VRC Sires horse so 1300m back to 1200m I’m not sure for him, but do feel he has the talent under the hood to run well here. Ran at Sandown last time and against the race shape, he was good in defeat I thought behind a genuine Sires horse in Lightsaber. Small field helps his cause.

2 Cheerful Legend (Bet Now: $6.00) has had early specking and not surprised given how kind the map looks for him. Comes through the Lightsaber race mentioned above where he led and tried hard. Just found the 1300m a bridge too far. Back to 1200m with Blinkers off, leads for fun and will give a sight.

The bookies haven’t missed 7 Marabi (Bet Now: $1.26), with the close relation to Jameka being $1.40 in markets. She just has to handle the Valley and she makes it 2/2. It was an enormous debut win at Pakenham. Led throughout and won by a space, running some of the best late splits of the meeting from in front and gave the track record a nudge. She’s Stakes class for sure and should win here.

6 Frisson (Bet Now: $8.50) is suited back to 1200m. Hard fit and racing well for the Ellerton/Zahra camp. Ran over 1300m at Sandown last time and was there to win when he got the split. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when a close up fourth to Ellis Park in a race that rated well for the meeting. Doubt he wins, but fills a place.

A rise to 1200m should suit 1 O’Reilly McLuke (Bet Now: $7.50). Former Kiwi that spanked them at his Australian debut at Warrnambool before going to Kyneton where he remained at 1100m and just found them a bit sharp late. Think a rise in trip helps his cause and should be around the mark.

Happy to speck 6 Surreal Image (Bet Now: $10.00) each way, provided there are eight runners that go around. Hasn’t really set the world on fire in two runs back from a spell, but wasn’t too bad at Sandown last start behind an in form Moeen. Has a strong third up record and Lachie King has ridden the gelding well previously. Leads for fun and will give a sight.

2 Cassius (Bet Now: $2.15) looks hard to beat, but odds on is rather short for a horse who doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates. He got the job done here last time out, and I was on his back, but, he was potentially lucky to win because the runner up Suretoshine was luckless and drove hard late. He can win, but I’d want $3+ before betting on him.

7 Tea Tales (Bet Now: $9.00) can bounce back here. Strong winner two back over 1500m at Geelong before going to Colac where the official rating was a Soft5, but really, it was more a Soft6/7, and she’s a mare who hates getting her feet wet, so back on top of the ground I like and if she can hold a forward spot, she’ll run a cheeky race at odds.

4 China Affair (Bet Now: $9.50) for me. He hasn’t really run a bad race this time in and looks well suited with fresh legs back to this sort of set up. Several weeks between runs since racing at Caulfield when outside the speed, a slow speed, and was just outsprinted when fourth to Ginger Jones. He’ll sit off a red hot pace here and be strong late.

1 Sartorial Splendor (Bet Now: $3.90) is the class runner of the field and should lead them up. Resumes for John Sadler, having not raced since finishing down the track here in the Carlyon behind Grandview Avenue. Looked sharp in a recent Caulfield jumpout and Blinkers on fresh says to me he’s here to win.

3 Rock Tycoon (Bet Now: $23.00) is already a two time winner of this Series this season, albeit in a couple of moderate 70 races, so not sure he wins, but the way the race shapes up, he’ll do no work from the inside draw and if the breaks do go his way late, he could well sneak a first four position.

Bit surprised 2 Ice Ice Baby (Bet Now: $5.50) is $7+. Heavily backed when resuming over 955m here and just found the race shape not his go, but was good late when second to Heavenly Bridges. Better for that run and stepping up to 1200m, he should park in a lovely spot off the speed and Jamie Kah sticks.

3 Savannah Cloud (Bet Now: $2.35) is hard to beat, but he is starting to become a tad costly from a betting perspective. Just wobbled on the turn when racing at this track/distance last time but balanced up and tried hard when second to Entrapped. He’s a leading contender, but he is short enough.

10 Zelify (Bet Now: $7.50) should be suited up to 1200m. This filly resumed over 1000m here and couldn’t sprint with them in a fast run race, sticking on okay late in the piece behind Cut It Out. Lone win did come at 1200m and has upside to come, so she can easily bounce back against this lot.

Hard to get away from 9 Comanche Brave (Bet Now: $3.50). Progressive three year old that is putting together a tidy little record. Got control last time out over 1800m at Sandown but he was still impressive to the line I thought, suggesting 2040m here is no issue, and potentially gets a soft lead once again.

I’m a bit surprised 10 Holster (Bet Now: $3.40) is favourite and I dare he and Comanche Brave will switch come jump time. In saying that, he is racing well for the Yargi team. Ran over 1800m at Sandown and I thought Jamie Kah gave him a peach. Just couldn’t finish it off when fourth to Larrikin, who was wide no cover throughout. He can win, but I’d want $5-$6+ before diving in.

I really want to make a case for 3 The Statesman (Bet Now: $26.00), but just not sure he has the sprint in the legs to win. His winning chances will depend on where he lands from the gate. He’ll be on the fence, but can he hold leaders back? If that is the case, I think he’ll run a big race and is definitely going in the quaddie.

Going with 10 Eaton (Bet Now: $18.00) each way and I am hoping for an aggressive from Group l winning hoop Teo Nugent. He ran over 2040m here last time out when outside the speed and took the front on the turn. Just whacked away late but stayed on for third. Gets to a more ideal trip, down in the weights…think if he leads, he’ll give a bold sight.

3 Outlandos (Bet Now: $4.20) has really turned the corner for the McEvoy camp. Potentially could be a sneaky Adelaide Cup horse if he wins here, so keen to see how he goes. Dominant win at Wangaratta two back then backed it up with a sharp effort to win over 2040m here. 2500m should be fine and is hard to beat.

7 Perfect Illusion (Bet Now: $7.00) is a one batter that will be suited if this becomes a true staying contest. The sit/sprint at Sandown last Wednesday wasn’t his go but he kept on and was a definite pass mark in defeat behind Shepard. Run prior behind Outlandos here was sound so he’s a knockout chance.

6 Zoushack (Bet Now: $2.50) is generally around the mark for the Hayes/Dabernig team and is a leading contender. Been kept on ice since getting the job done down the straight at Flemington, proving too good for a handy type in Japery. Should get a lovely run from the gate and Lane is getting on well with him.

The Freedman camp have 1 Open Minded (Bet Now: $3.40) going well. Did defeat Zoushack two back at Caulfield, narrowly, before going to the Sale Sprint where he took on a moderate field and was too good, but did run very sharp time. Creeping up in weights, but hard to knock way he’s going.

If you want one for wider multiples, I can entertain 11 Ping Ping (Bet Now: $81.00) despite rising a fair bit in grade/depth. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago and was luckless behind Foxy Lady, getting badly held up at a vital stage when seemingly having something to offer. Not sure he wins, but a sneaky first four chance.

BEST BET: Race Two Number 7 Marabi

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 6 Zoushack

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 10 Eaton

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 10

Leg Two: 3, 7, 9, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 7, 10

Leg Four: 1, 6

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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