The final major of the season is the Tatts Tiara (1400m), and it will be the focal point on a bumper ten race card this Saturday at Eagle Farm. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (11.00) : Singapore Airlines Plate 1200m:
Back Me: 13 Snow Fields (Bet Now: $4.60) resumed in the Lancaster here a fortnight back and closed off okay between runners behind My Country. Big drop in depth here, and with the run under the belt now, she should be better off and take some beating.
Big Danger: 15 Savanna Amour (Bet Now: $5.50) debuted at the Sunny Coast a couple of weeks ago and tried hard but couldn’t quite reel in Reward For Riches. There looks to be good upside with this well bred filly, and now she races on her home track, and that’s always an advantage with the youngsters.
Roughie: 3 Fallen For You (Bet Now: $9.00) was an alarming drifting favourite when resuming over 900m at the Gold Coast last Saturday where she got a fair way back in the ruck and made up ground late behind Divine Dice. Her form from previous efforts reads okay for a race like this, and the step up to 1200m on a big track is a tick.
Race Two (11:32) : Carlton Draught Plate (Class 6) 1400m:
Back Me: 16 I Am The Sculptor (Bet Now: $4.80) ran at the midweeks at Doomben a tick over two weeks back and looked to be dipping and diving on the soft track, but once balanced up, he really attacked the line to only go down narrowly. He has raced very well this time in, draws well and gets really good weight relief.
Big Danger: 3 Flamboyer (Bet Now: $7.00) has been given a seven week freshen up since running a game third to Beckham at Doomben in a race where the form out of it has really held up nicely. Shinn jumps on from a good draw, and he does race well fresh, so he is a threat for sure IMO.
Roughie: 13 Best Case (Bet Now: $7.00) is a clear watch horse. Former Sydneysider who had one run for Bryan Guy in the Goldmarket and failed behind Bachman. Now with Steve O’Dea and a couple of Deagon trials have bee quite encouraging. Major player if he brings his best form.
Race Three (12:07) : FKG Group Spear Chief Handicap 1500m:
Back Me: 6 Beckham (Bet Now: $8.00) looks the way to go for me at a price. He was freshened up after winning at Doomben before contesting the Eye Liner last weekend where he tried hard but was no match for the impressive winner Ninth Legion. Looks as though he’ll get a cosy lead here, and he should be better off fitness wise.
Big Danger: 2 Amovatio (Bet Now: $3.80) comes through the Wayne Wilson mile here a fortnight back where he worked home strongly without threatening the impressive winner Hopfgarten. Does get a slight weight pull on that horse here, but the better point is that I think the small field will suit him more so.
Roughie: 3 Tales Of Grimm (Bet Now: $6.00) ran over 1800m at Rosehill three weeks back and couldn’t really lift his feet up on the heavy track behind Foreign Prince, who franked the form by winning last weekend. He is a bit of a money muncher, but on his best form, he is a contender.
Race Four (12:42) : A M Giles & Co Chartered Accountants Handicap 1830m:
Back Me: 4 Feltre (Bet Now: $18.00) looks real value IMO. Just forget he went around last time out in the Wayne Wilson Mile given he was four and five wide no cover for the entire trip. His runs prior were pretty good and he draws much better now.
Big Danger: 1 Pajaro (Bet Now: $3.10) is the form horse racing at the moment after winning the Scone Cup and then running a couple of ripping seconds, the latest in the Wayne Wilson Mile behind Hopfgarten. He is steadily creeping up in the weights, which is the worry, but it’s hard to knock the way he is racing at the moment.
Roughie: 2 Adirondack (Bet Now: $9.00) has been given a five week freshen up since running fifth in the Port Adelaide Cup behind Zanteca, beaten five lengths after sitting off speed, which isn’t his go. He is much better when ridden on top of the pace and the map does say he’ll get over comfortably.
Race Five (13:20) : Winning Edge Presentations Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 8 Aimalac Millie (Bet Now: $26.00) looks the big overs here at around the $26 mark. I think she was huge despite getting beat last start at Grafton given she overraced a touch in the run and had to carry 60kg. Tumbles in weight here and she has run well in town before.
Big Danger: 4 Madotti (Bet Now: $6.50) is a classy filly that resumes for Matty Dunn. She ran really well during the Summer, highlighted by a win in the Vo Rogue followed up by a fifth to Mahuta in the Magic Millions Guineas. Recent trial was sharp, she draws well and will be charging late.
Roughie: 7 Miri Miri (Bet Now: $21.00) resumed on her home track at the Sunny Coast a couple of weeks back and was a bit disappointing I thought behind Banda Spice. She is better than that, and she’s a filly that will appreciate give in the track. Must for exotics.
Race Six (13:57) : Carlton Mid Tatts Cup 2200m:
Back Me: I think there is real value in the shape of 5 Brave Ali (Bet Now: $19.00). I thought he was very good two back before racing in the Wayne Wilson Mile where he had no luck in the straight. Leap to 2200m from the mile is a query, but he has enormous upside, he can roll forward and he loves a wet track.
Big Danger: 2 Benzini (Bet Now: $3.60) could not have been ridden any better by Rosie Myers to take out the Brisbane Cup a fortnight back, sprinting hard in the straight and holding off the gallant Sir John Hawkwood. Creeps up in the weights now, but has class and should take some beating.
Roughie: 3 Index Linked (Bet Now: $7.50) also comes through the Brisbane Cup where he just got shuffled back in the ruck and that really sealed his fate behind Benzini. Draws to sit much closer in the run and gets a really good weight pull on Benzini.
Race Seven (14:37) : Wintergarden Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Emphatically (Bet Now: $17.00) comes through the Hampden where she had a nice run off the speed before seemingly not handling the home turn at all before being balanced up and working home okay late. Up to 1400m looks perfect for her, and if the track remains to have give in it, her chances will be enhanced more.
Big Danger: 3 Cellarman (Bet Now: $6.00) ran at Canterbury a tick under two weeks ago and tried hard but had to settle for a close up second to Piping Hot. Looks to have some upside and has the Waller polish, plus Bowman sticks.
Roughie: 9 Sugarparma (Bet Now: $9.00) comes through the Lancaster where she was wide no cover throughout. Loomed to win the race 300m out but the hard run just told late. Again draws awkwardly, but if she can get cover from the gate, she is a live threat.
Race Eight (15:17) : Sky Racing Tatts Tiara 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Azkadellia (Bet Now: $2.45) let the punters down badly in the Stradbroke where she was heavily backed and didn’t really do a great deal. The stars can be forgiven for one bad run, and really, on her best form…she laps these. You just need to block out the Stradbroke run to butter up.
Big Danger: 7 Sultry Feeling (Bet Now: $31.00) was sent to Adelaide to tackle the Robert Sangster first up and she just found it too tough when down the track behind Precious Gem. She has since trialled at Randwick and went very well behind stablemate Shamalia. She has class and looks ready to run a beauty fresh.
Roughie: 14 Beatniks (Bet Now: $71.00) is on the back up after racing in the Dane Ripper a fortnight back where she got back and found the line strongly when running sixth to Cradle Me, beaten just over three lengths in what was a solid effort. The likely fast tempo here will really suit this mare, and she is knocking on the door. Great outside chance.
Race Nine (15:57) : W.J. Healy Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Tina Melina (Bet Now: $7.50) ran in the Bright Shadow (1200m) five weeks back and worked home alright over the final 200m behind impressive Palazzo Publico. She is generally a mare that needs a couple of runs to find her feet, so being third up here, she should be ready fitness wise and take some holding out here.
Big Danger: 11 Mogador (Bet Now: $3.80) comes through the Queensland Day where he tried very hard but couldn’t quite reel in Kamacite, who had it too good on speed on a day where leaders were advantaged. Draws gate one, on the limit…this is his chance.
Roughie: 3 Saluter (Bet Now: $8.50) was a slight drifter when resuming at the Sunny Coast but his class was too much and he got the job done impressively. Only has upside, and he has class, and he is a horse who does race best when spaced between runs.
Race Ten (16:32) : Landfill Logistics Daybreak Lover 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Tsaritsa (Bet Now: $2.05) at even money, IMO, looks a steal. I am sure if she ran in the Tatts Tiara, she would have given it a shake, but this’ll be a nice consolation. She was huge in winning the Queensland Guineas, aided by a peach from the Magic Man. Loses nothing with Bowman aboard, mile is no issue…just wins IMO.
Big Danger: 9 Sold For Song (Bet Now: $3.90) was huge behind Tsaritsa in the Guineas given she was back near last in the run and made up a stack of ground. She gets the weight pull on Tsaritsa; The query is how big of a start she’ll give Tsaritsa.
Roughie: 10 Indarra (Bet Now: $34.00) also comes through the Guineas and simply just forget she went around given she was wide no cover and pressed on to sit outside the speed and she dropped out of it. With better luck here, she can be a place contender.
BEST BET: Race Ten Number 1 Tsaritsa
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Azkadellia
VALUE: Race Six Number 5 Brave Ali
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 8, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 14
Leg Three: 3, 4, 6, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1
$50 Investment= 33.33% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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