The Golden Slipper Carnival at Rosehill wraps up this Saturday with a cracking program, headlined by a Group l double header, the BMW (2400m) and the Vinery Stud (2000m). The weather is overcast, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:20) : The Schweppervescene 1400m:
Back Me: 3 Astoria (Bet Now: $2.80) clearly on top for me here. There was a lot to like about his win on debut on a bog Warwick Farm surface. Settled just off the pace and when Angland pushed the button, he sprinted and absolutely spanked them. Looks well above average and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 10 Villa Carlotta (Bet Now: $7.50) has the right form behind her name given she ran third to Frolic and She Will Reign, who ran the quinella in the Slipper last week. Well held there, but that is the strongest two year old form going. Looks suited up to 1400m and is trained on the track. Rates highly.
Long Shot: 5 All To Huiying (Bet Now: $10.00) had market support at a price when resuming in the Pago Pago (1200m) here two weeks back and I thought he was quite good in defeat behind Single Bullet, reeling off some nice closing splits late in the piece. Looking for further which he gets here, draws
Race Two (13:00) : E-Group Security Star Kingdom Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Jungle Edge (Bet Now: $3.50) was a despised outsider last Saturday in the Galaxy but despite his long price, I thought he ran an absolute ripper on speed when running third to Russian Revolution, and was coming again on the line. Clearly not as much depth here, and if he repeats last week, he will take some beating.
Big Danger: 3 Impending (Bet Now: $4.60) was a big flop first up in the Southern Cross behind Le Romain before going to the Canterbury Stakes where he ran a beauty behind three high class gallopers, all of which ran well in the George Ryder. Back to 1200m is a big tick and isn’t badly treated at the weights.
Long Shot: 6 Sort After (Bet Now: $6.50) is a quality mare that is first up here for the Waterhouse/Bott yard. Really came of age in the Spring, progressing from a benchmark mare to Blacktype quality. Trials have been solid leading in, and she should jump well and perhaps lead early before handing up to Jungle Edge and stalk. She’s the value.
Race Three (13:35) : Daily Telegraph Neville Selwood Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: 3 Astronomos (Bet Now: $2.20) on top for me here. He lapped up the bog track last time out in the Randwick City Stakes (2000m), sitting behind the speed before getting the splits at the right time and going on to spank his rivals. Wet tracks are his go and being only third up here, he should have some upside left.
Big Danger: 9 Zasorceress (Bet Now: $6.50) is the very interesting runner here. She has really grown a leg since joining the Weir camp, and her last start effort indicates that. She defied the bias when racing over the Flemington mile last time out and just missed out on picking up Circular. Now that Weir has broken the Sydney drought, he can go right on with it, especially with this in form mare.
Long Shot: 8 Ambience (Bet Now: $9.00) is on the seven day back up after racing in the Epona last Saturday where she was given a lovely time of it on speed and kicked strongly but was just no match late for the progressive mare Consommateur. Always respect horses on the turnaround off a wet track onto another, she has upside, and maps well again.
Race Four (14:15) : Rydges Parramatta Doncaster Prelude 1500m:
Back Me: 7 Spectroscope (Bet Now: $3.20) clearly on top for me here. This Godolphin import made quite the impression at his Australian debut here a couple of weeks back when sitting off the speed and producing a lovely turn of foot to get the job done. Showing really good promise and I think he can get the job done here.
Big Danger: 4 Rudy (Bet Now: $5.00) is a class animal from Queensland who resumed over 1350m at Doomben two weeks ago and really, it was just a nightmare watch if you backed him. Hopelessly held up when appearing to have plenty to offer. He is a swimmer, so the rain affected track is a big tick, runs well second up, and has class.
Long Shot: 5 Marenostro (Bet Now: $8.50) is a quality galloper that is first up here for Chris Waller. He was set down to resume in the Newcastle Newmarket, but has been kept for this, and looks a leading contender off the back of a couple of very sharp efforts at the trials. If there was a horse to be a contender for the Prelude/Doncaster double, this could be it.
Race Five (14:50) : Power Distribution Australia Tulloch Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: Waddle your finger and hope for the best. I didn’t think 12 Hollywood Mo (Bet Now: $12.00) wasn’t too bad last week in the Rosehill Guineas. Yes he was beaten nine lengths, but he stuck on alright I thought. This is a brutal race to do the form for, because there are just so many unknowns. With this bloke, he’s hard fit on a wet track at the track/distance and for mine represents value.
Big Danger: 6 Honeywine (Bet Now: $10.00) is the intriguing runner here. Hasn’t really done a great deal in two runs back from a break, the latest coming on Feb 15 at Randwick behind Obsidian, but I thought he trialled really well recently there behind First Seal. You only have to go back to the Spring to see the quality this horse has. Not writing him off.
Long Shot: 7 Wine Bush (Bet Now: $9.50) is a real one batter who looks ideally suited in a 2000m slog, which is what this will be. Took on the older horses over 1900m here a fortnight back and he just lacked a real turn of foot, and just whacked away when fifth to stablemate Hogmanay. Should be hard fit now an ready to go. Big watch.
Race Six (15:30) : The BMW 2400m:
Back Me: 2 Exospheric (Bet Now: $7.50) would clearly be on top had this track been firm. His two runs this time in have been outstanding. The latest came in the Australian Cup when making up really good ground nearer the inside to run third to Humidor. The wet track is the query, but on current form, he has to be rated highly.
Big Danger: This notion that 8 Jameka (Bet Now: $2.90) is a dud on wet ground is utter nonsense. She spanked them in the Crown Oaks on a bottomless/chopped out surface, so don’t pay attention to those saying that. Her effort in the Australian Cup was outstanding, doing all the work on speed and was only caught late by Humidor. As much as I love Humidor, I can’t see him holding the margin on Jameka here. She’s a key contender.
Long Shot: 4 Grand Marshal (Bet Now: $61.00) could be the big improver here. Hasn’t done a great deal in two runs this time in, but that is to be expected of this 2400m+ horse. Ran a beauty in this race last year and I think 12 months ago, he is certainly not out of it, especially with the wet track. Great knockout hope.
Race Seven (16:10) : Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: The $9 all in for 3 Harlow Gold (Bet Now: $5.00) was just too good to pass up. Star filly who has been excellent in two runs back from a spell. Closed off strongly fresh in the Vanity before again working home with purpose to run fourth to Hey Doc in the Australian Guineas. Two runs on soft ground have been good, none on heavy. But I think she will get through it and she is the Crown Oaks runner up.
Big Danger: 1 La Bella Diosa (Bet Now: $7.00) was a very impressive first up winner of the Surround, then was a big flop in the Coolmore against the older mares despite being well in the market and well liked by most. Prepared to put a line through that run because she does have a few credits in the bank and she was second up off that brutal run on the bottomless Randwick track.
Long Shot: 9 Moqueen (Bet Now: $101.00) could be one to watch at massive odds here. Didn’t mind her first up effort in the Light Fingers behind Global Glamour before struggling in the Aspiration behind Elle Lou on a day where hard fit runners came to the fore. Suited by the rise to 2000m and last time she was there, she ran a closing fourth behind Group l performer Eleonora.
Race Eight (16:50) : Ascend Sales Trophies Emancipation Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: 2 Dixie Blossoms (Bet Now: $3.80) for me here to bounce back. Just forget she went around in the Coolmore given she had a horror run from the wide gate and really couldn’t come on when finishing down the track behind Heavens Above. She just needs a better run here to go close to bouncing back into the winners list.
Big Danger: 3 Zanbagh (Bet Now: $6.50) ran a beauty in the Coolmore I thought given it was a tad difficult to make ground where she was in the run. Closed off with real purpose when running sixth to Heavens Above. She is a swimmer, so she gets conditions to suit here once again, and being third up, she should be ready fitness wise.
Long Shot: 8 Happy Hannah (Bet Now: $13.00) comes through the Tressady (1400m) at Flemington first up where she was up against the bias towards those near the rail and to her credit, I thought she did a very good job to get as close as she did to Turbo Miss. Was going to be1400m quickly to 1900m last week off one run and a soft trial, so 1500m here…no idea really, but who am I to doubt the Snowden camp.
Race Nine (17:30) : EFM Logistics Handicap (90) 1400m:
Back Me: 10 Ancient History (Bet Now: $5.50) made his Australian debut over 1400m at Kembla Grange in a pretty strong class three and did a really good job in defeat after doing some work in the run near the speed. He should come right on from that and has enormous upside. Ticks a few boxes here.
Big Danger: 1 Handfast (Bet Now: $4.40) faces his D-Day here. Has placed at his past couple of outings, the latest coming in the National Sprint at Canberra where he tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off. This field doesn’t carry as much depth, and the wet track is a big tick. The only negative is the weight.
Long Shot: 8 Bring Luck (Bet Now: $7.50) resumed over 1350m here two weeks ago and despite being a near rank outsider, he ran a beauty I thought when running third to the high class Godolphin import Spectroscope. On a firm track, he’d be $101 here but the heavy surface brings him right into contention.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Dixie Blossoms
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Astoria
VALUE: Race Seven Number 3 Harlow Gold
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9
Leg Three: 2, 3
Leg Four: 1, 8, 10
$50 Investment= 19.84% of the dividend if successful
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