A guaranteed start in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) is on offer for the winner of the Mornington Cup (2400m) this Saturday and that highlights a strong stand alone program at the provincial track. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:40) : Windows Warehouse Handicap (78) 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Aunty Mo (Bet Now: $6.00) looks ready to win now third up from a break. This mare has had two runs back from a break now, the latest coming over 955m at the Valley when a close up third to Punt Club. Looks ideally suited up to 1000m and should be cherry ripe fitness wise. One to beat.
Big Danger: 5 Schism (Bet Now: $6.50) was completely unwanted in betting when resuming in a four horse field at Ballarat where she was an alarming drifter in the market but despite that she trotted up after getting a very comfy lead. Maps well here and should only improve off that. Definite threat.
Long Shot: 7 Certain Ellie (Bet Now: $12.00) strung together a couple of impressive efforts at the Valley before going to the Parks track two weeks back where she looked to struggle carrying the decent weight on her back when finishing fifth to Oamaru Owl. Gets really good weight relief here and is on her home track.
Race Two (13:15) : No Fuss Event Hire Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 12 El Rada (Bet Now: $6.00) is a mare in really good form at the moment for the in form Archie Alexander yard. She ran over 1200m at Moonee Valley under the lights last time out where she was given a peach of a ride in transit and it deserved the win, but she had to settle for a close up second. She can go one better here.
Big Danger: 3 Typhoon Jolie (Bet Now: $14.00) is the very interesting runner here. Formerly with Team Snowden but is now with John Sadler. Very hot and cold mare but when she is right, she is blacktype quality. Jump outs have been encouraging and she does have a very good fresh record. Respect any market moves.
Long Shot: 6 Weather The Storm (Bet Now: $16.00) is a talented mare when she is right, so she is definitely one to watch here. Hasn’t raced for a tick over three weeks since finishing down the track behind Bassett at Sandown, and that horse has since gone on to win at Stakes level. Draws to get a lovely run off a genuine speed, and perhaps stalk Sullivan Bay, and she has a fab record at Mornington.
Race Three (13:55) : Progress Signs Handicap (90) 2000m:
Back Me: 4 Try Four (Bet Now: $3.10) for me here in a very open contest with a host of winning chances. He had a trial over the sticks at Ballarat prior to racing over 1800m at Flemington where the bias was against him but he still ran well in defeat behind Aloft. Up to 2000m is a big tick and rates highly. The one to beat.
Big Danger: 5 Golden Mane (Bet Now: $5.50) can be a hard horse to trust but I think he finds a very winnable race here. He comes through the Aloft race at Flemington two weeks back where he sat back in the run, and as we know, it was quite difficult to make ground. Hopefully we get an even playing field here, and if so, he is a key threat.
Long Shot: 3 Lucques (Bet Now: $11.00) could be a big improver here. He has had two runs back from a break this time in, the latest coming in the Wangaratta Cup where he got back in the ruck and couldn’t really get involved behind Our Century, who ran a beauty last weekend. He is the one with upside here, and some really strong form behind him from last prep.
Race Four (14:30) : Martin Collins Fibretrack Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: 2 Toga Picta (Bet Now: $2.70) surged hard late to win on debut at Wyong before the stable sent him to Flemington for the Sires where he was given a sweet ride by Melham but the bias was against him as he couldn’t show the necessary dash to overhaul those in front of him. Provided we get an even playing field here, he’ll take some holding out third up.
Big Danger: 1 Eshtiraak (Bet Now: $2.90) should be forgiven for his failure in the Sires Produce given he bungled the start and then settled back off the speed on a day where it was very difficult to make ground. I think with a cleaner jump, the 1500m will suit him and on his prior form, he’s one of the hardest to beat.
Long Shot: 3 Fully Maxed (Bet Now: $6.00) ran a game fourth to Garrard two back at Bendigo before stamping himself as a talented youngster with a dominant maiden win at Seymour in what looked a pretty solid maiden with good depth engaged. On that effort, he should eat up the 1500m here and stable is going very well.
Race Five (15:10) : Mitavite Challenge Final (78) 1600m:
Back Me: 7 Fife (Bet Now: $5.00) is a talented mare for Robert Smerdon and Qatar Bloodstock. Resumed at the Valley under the lights and really, just forget she went around. Doubt she would have won, but she had no room nearer the inside and couldn’t really build up any momentum. Looks better placed here and should take some holding out.
Big Danger: 1 Strike Force (Bet Now: $3.10) is on the seven day back up for the Michael Moroney yard. He ran over the Flemington mile last Saturday where was given a lovely ride in transit by Patrick Moloney and the horse rightfully kicked on to get the job done. I don’t think the quick turnaround will do him any harm, and this is a very winnable race.
Long Shot: 3 Hell On Earth (Bet Now: $9.50) should be forgiven for his last start failure at Ballarat where he just pulled too hard in the first half of the race and that left him gassed in the run home. Looks to be more of a genuine tempo here, so with better racing manners, he can bounce back in a big way here with Jackie Berriman back aboard.
Race Six (15:50) : Ladbrokes Hareeba Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Bassett (Bet Now: $3.60) has been a revelation this time in. He was a non winner for a long period of time but that has well and truly changed this time in. Bolted up at Sandown fresh before going to the Abel at the Valley last Friday night where he sat outside the speed and then when asked for the effort, he drew right away. No reason why he can’t do it again.
Big Danger: 1 Fast ‘N’ Rocking (Bet Now: $14.00) could be the knockout hope here at odds. Class runner of the field who comes through the Abel behind Bassett where he didn’t much room in the straight nearer the inside when appearing to have plenty to offer. Draws to get clear running here and if he can blend in at the right time, he will be a serious player.
Long Shot: 6 Dan Zephyr (Bet Now: $19.00) comes through the Apache Cat where he was first up there. Sat outside a very slow speed, so he really had every right to kick on and he did when second to Stellar Collision. Trained on the track and has a very good record here. Tidy second up record and will be out of trouble on speed.
Race Seven (16:30) : Ladbrokes Mornington Cup 2400m:
Big Danger: 3 The Gold Trail (Bet Now: $2.20) is the obvious watch horse here. Charlie Appleby trained stayer that has some really good stats/form next to his name from racing in Europe, similar to that of Scottish, who of course finished second to Jameka in the Caulfield Cup. He has class, from all reports has settled in well and we know what the stable did in the Spring.
Big Danger: 6 Boom Time (Bet Now: $8.50) drops big time in grade after contesting the Australian Cup (2000m), where he was unsuited at WFA and against that class of horse but he did a really good job in defeat behind Humidor. Just lacks the WFA turn of foot. Back up to 2400m is a big tick, he draws well and is hard fit.
Long Shot: Going to give 10 Vengeur Masque (Bet Now: $21.00) another look here. I was very keen on him in the Stony Creek Cup but he let me down badly despite appearing to travel sweetly near the speed. Didn’t finish off at all and was most disappointing. He did run midfield in the Caulfield Cup and second in the Queens Cup, so he has class on his side, as well as upside.
Race Eight (17:10) : Mornington Jeep & Nissan Guineas 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Lord Macau (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Waterhouse/Bott trained three year old who has the toughness and versatility to win this. He ran over the Warwick Farm mile last time out where he led all the way on a bottomless surface and toughed it out very strongly to win. Should lead these, and with the rail in the true position, on pace runners won’t be disadvantaged.
Big Danger: 13 Red Is The Rose (Bet Now: $3.90) is a very good filly who showed that last time out in the Kewney (1400m) where she attempted to lead all the way and gave a really good kick but just felt the pinch late and was beaten by a couple of rippers in I Am A Star and Ellicazoom. No horse of that class here and maps really well.
Long Shot: 10 Florida Keys (Bet Now: $6.50) is a local filly who is showing good promise at the moment for the Pat Carey yard. She drops a fair bit in depth after racing in the Kewney where she ran quite well behind Group l winner I Am A Star. If she can get a good drag into the race and blend in at the right time, she will take some beating.
Race Nine (17:45) : Cleanaway Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 10 Maternal (Bet Now: $3.90) is a regally bred mare that resumes here for the Godolphin camp. Comes here after a couple of nice trial efforts in Sydney, with the idea to perhaps avoiding the wet tracks. Goes well first up, and last time in she had form around Zara Bay, Rewarding Effort and co. That reads well for this.
Big Danger: 1 Just Magical (Bet Now: $6.00) also comes through the Apache Cat at Cranbourne and I thought she was quite disappointing after receiving a nice sit just off the tempo. Couldn’t really quicken and just whacked away to the line. Perhaps flat after a ripping first up run? Time will tell, but I am prepared to give her another chance here.
Long Shot: 8 Sahara Chill (Bet Now: $26.00) is a mare formerly trained by Greg Bennett who had her first run for Kane Harris at Ballarat on March 8 where she sat on the speed and just faded late behind Euston Road. Her NSW form saw her at her best when ridden with cover and launching late, so if that eventuates here, she’s right in this.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 10 Maternal
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 2 Toga Picta
VALUE: Race Eight Number 2 Lord Macau
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Leg Two: 3
Leg Three: 1, 2, 10, 13
Leg Four: 1, 8, 9, 10
$50 Investment= 44.64% of the dividend if successful
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