Blacktype racing continues at Ascot this Saturday where it is Melvista Stakes Day, an important lead up to the WA Derby. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out half nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (16:18) : Tabtouch Plate 1000m:
Back Me: 5 Countess Natasha (Bet Now: $8.50) on top for me here. She debuted here a tick over two weeks back where she got back in the run and despite giving away a big start, she finished off with real purpose to run third to Royal Strata. Suited up in trip here and despite the sticky gate, she rates highly.
Big Danger: 3 Royal Strata (Bet Now: $4.20) won that race mentioned above and did a really good job in getting the win on the board. She had the dream sit behind the speed before getting the split and bursting through to win impressively. Meets a similar field here and ticks a lot of boxes. Hard to beat.
Long Shot: 2 Athlete (Bet Now: $8.50) debuted in the Royal Strata race where he was hard in the market despite being a slight drifter but he was quite disappointing in the run despite a soft trip just behind the speed. Trial efforts prior were very good, and if he brought that here, he will go close for sure.
Race Two: Amelia Park Handicap (72+) 1500m:
Back Me: 5 Settlers Creek (Bet Now: $5.00) has been up longer than Ron Jeremy but continues to race quite well. He ran over 1400m here a fortnight back where he had the nice sit just off the speed and tried hard but just couldn’t quite the job done when fourth to Kensington Abbey. Up to 1500m suits and gets a great chance to break into the winners list again.
Big Danger: 2 Infathuated (Bet Now: $2.00) is on the seven day back up for the Warwick camp after bolting up over the mile here last Saturday where he had a charmed run outside the speed and dashed right away. Is only better placed back to the 1500m, maps well and is in ripping form. The one to beat.
Long Shot: 8 The Blue Nipper (Bet Now: $51.00) ran over the mile here a tick over two weeks back where he did a stack of work near the speed, sitting wide no cover throughout and tiring late. He gets weight relief here and only has to get cover and a drag up into the race to be an outside winning chance here.
Race Three: Fifth Leg Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Blackline (Bet Now: $1.90) looks the clear horse to beat here. Resumed in a Pinjarra maiden and admittedly she didn’t beat much, she won by nine lengths and drew right away. Clearly more depth here, but she looks to be well above average and only has yo naturally improve off that to go close.
Big Danger: 1 More Aces (Bet Now: $6.00) is a talented sprinter for the Jim Taylor yard who is three from three at Ascot. Ran over 1100m here last time out where he sat on speed throughout and toughed it out quite strongly for a narrow but impressive win. Up to 1200m is a different kettle of fish, but he draws well and gets the claim.
Long Shot: 8 Dusty Storm (Bet Now: $81.00) took on the older horses when resuming here a fortnight back where he got a mile back in the run and did make ground but was never likely behind the in form Presentatie. Draws to sit much closer in the run here and if that can eventuate, he can go close at huge odds.
Race Four: Marjorie Charleson Classic 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Conseated (Bet Now: $2.30) is a horse in ripping form at the moment for the Simon Miller yard. Both runs this prep have been very good, the latest coming over 1000m here where she tried hard but was no match for the above average Three Votes. Looks well placed here and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 7 Forever Diamonds (Bet Now: $6.00) is a very talented mare that resumes for Team Williams. Performed quite well last time in without cracking some blacktype but she gets her chance here. Trial leading in was very good, and she is a very good runner when performed fresh. Big watch here.
Long Shot: 4 Dendee (Bet Now: $9.00) is a quality mare that is first up here for the Dan Morton yard. Early on in the prep last time in she produced some high quality performances, but lost her way towards the end. Comes here with no trials, but she is a very good fresh performer that should be respected.
Race Five: Karrakatta Plate Day Next Saturday Handicap (78+) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Gigante (Bet Now: $4.80) for me here. He is a very honest galloper for Jim Taylor who ran over this track/distance three weeks ago where he sat on speed and gave a really good kick but had to settle for a close up second to Shady Grey. Maps well, draws a lovely gate and the claim is a big tick.
Big Danger: 7 Three Votes (Bet Now: $1.65) is a very promising sprinter for the Gangemi yard who comes here with a picket fence next to his name. He ran over 1000m here two weeks back and absolutely trotted up after leading most of the way. 1200m is a different pain barrier, and draws awkwardly, but he is very promising.
Long Shot: 9 Dueton (Bet Now: $81.00) can be a very hard horse to trust but when he brings his best, he’s right in this. Ran down the track in the Shady Grey race and just couldn’t get involved from the back. He draws a nice gate here to stalk the speed and perhaps get the drag up. If he gets that, he can ambush late.
Race Six: Melvista Stakes 2200m:
Back Me: 2 Final Salute (Bet Now: $3.00) is a high class animal for Team Williams that got Pike aboard last time out in the JC Roberts and got the win on the board, albeit narrowly but impressively. The rise in trip is the issue but I just have to go with him here. The one to beat for mine despite some nice gallopers.
Big Danger: 1 Gangbuster (Bet Now: $5.50) was the real eye catcher in the JC Roberts. He got a long way back in the run and finished off with real purpose to run fourth to Final Salute. He is the horse who will love the rise in trip, and if he is within striking range on the turn, he will take some beating.
Long Shot: 6 Trap For Fools (Bet Now: $20.00) led at a strong tempo late Friday over 2100m here and despite not appearing to take on much, I thought he was quite impressive in getting the job done. Clearly more depth here, but he won’t get much pressure on speed and is proven at the trip.
Race Seven: Auto Classic BMW Handicap (1MW) 1600m:
Back Me: 9 By Decree (Bet Now: $21.00) for me here but with not much confidence given the lack of depth. She ran over 2000m at Pinjarra last time out and closed off strongly behind At The Ready. Blinkers go on now, so that should sharpen her right up, and with the 2000m run under the belt, she should take some beating.
Big Danger: 1 Politics (Bet Now: $2.60) is the class runner engaged here hence why he is topweight. He ran over the mile here two weeks ago where he got a long way back in the run yet finished off the quite strongly for a dominant win. On that run, the 2000m should be no issue and he rates highly.
Long Shot: 5 Confusing (Bet Now: $26.00) was an outsider in the market when running over 1800m here two weeks back where he had a suck run behind the speed and couldn’t quite come on behind Eleven Seconds. Perhaps up in trip will help his cause, and overall, this isn’t a strong contest. One for multiples.
Race Eight: JJ Richards & Sons Handicap (66+) 1100m:
Back Me: Taking the chance on 9 Hostwin Pegasus (Bet Now: $17.00). This former Gary Moore galloper is loving life in WA and deserves a crack in town off the back of some really good efforts at the Provincials. Ran last time out at Albany and fought on strongly to get the win on the board. Draws a lovely gate here and happy to have him each way.
Big Danger: 7 Presentatie (Bet Now: $2.70) took an absolute eternity to break her drought in Australia but she finally did it two weeks back over 1200m here when ridden an absolute treat by Pike. Back to 1100m should suit her perfectly and now she has the win on the board, she can go right on with it.
Long Shot: 12 Cool Image (Bet Now: $15.00) had been out of form for a long time but that all changed last time out at Bunbury when sitting off the speed and producing a lovely turn of foot to get the job done. Back in town, but now his confidence is up. He can go right on with it.
BEST BET: Race Four Number 5 Conseated
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Final Salute
VALUE: Race Eight Number 9 Hostwin Pegasus
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6
Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
Leg Four: 1, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12
$50 Investment= 13.88% of the dividend if successful
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