The biggest stand alone Saturday meeting in Australia is here this weekend at Hawkesbury, with over $1 Million in prize money up for grabs, highlighted by the $150,000 Group lll Panthers Hawkesbury Gold Cup (1600m). The weather is overcast, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:15pm) : PFD Food Services Handicap (85) 1300m: Form Guide
Back Me: It was hard not to be impressed by the first up win of Impulsive Spirit (Best Odds: $3.40) at Warwick Farm given she was back near last on the turn before peeling the widest and just savaging the line late to win. She won second up last time in on a heavy track over 1400m, and she appears to be in much better form now. Drawn well, Collett sticks, hard to beat.
Big Danger: Aussies Love Sport (Best Odds: $6.00) had his first run for David Vandyke at Randwick a couple of weeks back and ran really well when second to Dublin Lass, beaten a half length. He did trial well prior to that, and he normally takes a run or two to find his best, so the fact he ran so well first up suggests to me he is appreciating life under Vandyke and should prove a tough one to get past.
Roughie: Great Esteem (Best Odds: $11.00) was sent to Team Snowden last prep and he won all four runs, all in great fashion. He has tuned up for his return to racing with one trial, while last time in he had two trials before his resumption, so perhaps he might need this run before we see his best, but it’s hard to ignore what he achieved last prep.
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Race Two (12:50pm) : Evergreen Turf Claret Stakes 1300m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with Serene Majesty (Best Odds: $2.50). Her debut run last week at Canterbury was full of merit when second to Sweet Redemption given she was forced to make ground near the inside, which wasn’t the place to be. She trialled really well prior to that, so with a possible firmer surface and distance increase, as well as the run under the belt, she should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: So Willie (Best Odds: $4.60) will benefit from the debut run at Canterbury when working home well late to run third to stablemate Counterattack, who would have just about started here, but is scratched and will be saved for Doomben next week. So Willie has shown that he handles a wet track, and he’ll be strong at the end of 1300m in these testing conditions.
Roughie: The runner that could surprise at odds is the local, Kev’s Babe (Best Odds: $34.00). She really caught my eye last time out at Wyong, making up significant ground despite being pretty much on one rein. The winner of the race is smart, so the form isn’t too bad IMO, and now the filly gets on to her home track, and that is a definite advantage, plus she just has enormous upside. I’ve seen worse rank outsiders.
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Race Three (1:25pm) : Richmond Club Provincial Stayers Final (76) 2100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between Loophole and Super Mover. Leaning towards the one that has upside and that lies with Super Mover (Best Odds: $4.80). He was tried to win last week at Canterbury, and thanks to a gun ride by Winona Costin, he duly saluted. He’ll have no issue running 2100m on a wet track and Costin sticks. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Loophole (Best Odds: $3.70) is a very one paced type that will stay all day, as we saw last time out at Canterbury over 1550m when third to Crown Moss. He came off the bit 700m out and was under niggling pressure all the way and while he never looked like winning, he just kept on, and this sort of horse will just suit Jim Cassidy perfectly, and he has won on the horse in the past.
Roughie: Felix Bay (Best Odds: $8.00) ran in a heat of this series over 2000m at this track and ran well when fifth to White Dove, beaten 2.6L, without a great deal of luck early on in the straight. He is a very hard horse to follow, but he is bred to swim and he has a pretty tidy record at Hawkesbury.
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Race Four (2:00pm) : XXXX Gold Rush 1100m: Form Guide
Back me: Diamond Oasis (Best Odds: $3.80) won first up at Canberra before going to a 55 Second Challenge Heat at the Valley and running a strong third to multiple Group l winner Platelet, beaten a half length. It’s hard to get a true guide on that form because Platelet has raced since, and though failed, it was on a heavy track, so that form is inconclusive IMO. Diamond Oasis flies fresh and looks suited at the weights.
Big Danger: Dothraki (Best Odds: $3.80) resumes after formerly being with Gerald Ryan, now with Team Snowden. He has a great overall record, and has some really handy formlines from last prep, with the likes of Barbed, Our Boy Malachi and Cradle Me.
Roughie: The value could well lie with Zaratone (Best Odds: $10.00).The old boy resumes for Bjorn Baker after just one run in the Spring, where he ran second to Our Boy Malachi. That is excellent form obviously, and Zaratone has tuned up for this with a couple of solid trial wins. He does run well fresh and will be out of trouble on speed.
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Race Five (2:40pm) : The 2015 Darley Crown 1300m: Form Guide
Back Me: Classy race and the one I’m most looking forward to. I singled out Fine Bubbles (Best Odds: $11.00) for this race before her run in the Sapphire (1200m), and her effort there has enhanced my confidence. She worked home very strongly from the back to run third to a Group l performer in Avoid Lightning. Fourth up last prep she was only 1.8L off Arabian Gold and Catkins in the Golden Pendant. That formline reads so well for a race like this and the Hawkesbury layout should suit her perfectly.
Big Danger: Really keen to see the return run of Rose Of Choice (Best Odds: $4.40). She performed well in Melbourne during the Spring before failing in two Sydney runs during the Summer. I’ve been quite taken by her two trial efforts, and I have no doubt she is ready to go first up for Team Snowden, who have a wonderful record in this race when they were training for Darley.
Roughie: My Sabeel (Best Odds: $4.60) is an absolute swimmer who has overcome injury troubles according to trainer Kevin Moses, which would explain her below par efforts recently. She loves the wet, small field suits and looks well weighted here given her great overall record.
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Race Six (3:20pm) : Panthers Hawkesbury Gold Cup 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really strong edition of the Cup. Going to lean towards some value in the shape of the Chris Waller trained Danchai (Best Odds: $31.00). The grey is first up here after what was a fairly ordinary Spring, with his best effort being an eighth to Lucia Valentina in the Tramway, which was his first up run. He was only 4.7L off the winner and a star studded field which had the likes of Rising Romance, Tiger Tees and Toydini. That field had far more depth than what he faces here, and I loved his recent trial win at Warwick Farm. Keen to have something on him each-way at the value.
Big Danger: Strawberry Boy (Best Odds: $8.50) ran pretty well first up at Randwick over 1400m when attempting to lead all the way but just got grabbed late and ran fifth, beaten less than a length. Cassidy back on is a big tick because he rides the horse better than anyone, the horse handles wet ground and will be up on speed, which could well be the place to be.
Roughie: Ecuador (Best Odds: $4.80) was/is regarded as a potential Group l horse, and he looks on track for a really good prep after his first up second to Rugged Cross over 1400m at Randwick, sitting on speed and fighting on so well. He won second up last time in as a short priced favourite then went on to run fourth to Messene in the Ajax. This looks a nice race for him.
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Race Seven (4:00pm) : Blacktown Workers Hawkesbury Guineas 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Pretty keen here on Rekindled Power (Best Odds: $3.80). I loved the way he trialled at Randwick, then won a trial on his home track at Scone before resuming in the Arrowfield Sprint (1200m) where he worked home very strongly to run third to a couple of Group l horses in Delectation and Bring Me The Maid. He should improve significantly off that, up to 1400m suits and second up last time he was four lengths off Kuro.
Big Danger: Federal (Best Odds: $4.00) showed a lovely turn of foot off a slow speed to score a dominant win in the South Pacific Classic (1400m), beating home an inferior field to what he faces here, but the win was still highly impressive. The stable loves to target this race day and they don’t leave without winning a feature race or two. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Anyaas (Best Odds: $8.50) trialled well behind an above average type in Skylimit before resuming in the J H B Carr (1400m) where she ran really well when second to a multiple Stakes winner in Slightly Sweet. She did look to have improvement fitness wise before that run, so I am tipping her to run a beauty here.
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Race Eight (4:40pm) : Blakes Marine Handicap (80) 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Keen here on Hollywood Bound (Best Odds: $6.00) again. He was well tried to win last weekend at Randwick and he looked home, but couldn’t quite fend off the best wet track horse in Australia, Dowdstown Charlie. As I have said many times, Chris Waller has a remarkable winning strike rate when putting his horses through the seven day back up. Looks a lovely race for him.
Big Danger: The Song Of Tara’s are just absolute swimmers, so I’ll clearly put Song And Laughter (Best Odds: $4.80) in as the threat. She plowed through the mud to win two back at Warwick Farm before repeating the same result on a firmer surface. Gets back on a wet track and looks suited by the rise to 1500m and getting in on the limit weight. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Wings (Best Odds: $16.00) worked home nicely over the Warwick Farm mile a couple of weeks back when second to Royal Advennture, beaten over two lengths. Back to 1500m looks ideal and the last time she ran on wet ground, she was beaten a neck by a Stakes performed mare, Villa Splendido. Hard to beat here.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 3 Rekindled Power
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 3 Hollywood Bound
VALUE: Race Six Number 16 Danchai
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7
Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 7, 12, 16
Leg Three: 2, 3, 9, 10
Leg Four: 3, 5, 10, 12, 13
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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