Eight races will be run and won at Belmont this Saturday where the feature race is the $100,000 Peninsula Mile (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (13:58) Kirin Megumi Maiden 1200m
These maidens on the Saturday meeting are tough to sort out but I think 10 Miss Mandy (Bet Now: $6.50) can run well here. This mare ran over 1100m at Northam last Thursday where she got well back off the pace but worked home well late to grab third behind impressive debut winner Dance Music. Up to 1200m on the bigger track, she’ll be strong late.
4 Gessato (Bet Now: $3.70) is a son of Dick Turpin resuming for the Sean Casey yard. This bloke hasn’t raced since mid April at Pinjarra where he ran a narrow second to Master Pearl. Been given a decent break and has been tuned up for his return with a couple of impressive trials. Just has to overcome the gate.
1 Reaction (Bet Now: $15.00) lacks the turn of foot of some of these but one thing we do know is that he’ll be strong at the end. Was 1500m-1300m last time at Northam where he had the beaut sit off the pace and tried hard to win but couldn’t produce the turn of foot to get the win when second to Monsoon. Back to 1200m now, but hard fit and will be strong.
Race 2. (14:33) Marina East Waterfront Apartments By Blackburne Handicap (78+) 2100m
Continually creeping up in the weights but the obvious option is 2 Red Army (Bet Now: $1.55). Ran over 2000m here a fortnight back where Smith had the gelding in the right spot all the way and despite being challenged late, he was always holding them. Back up to 2100m looks ideal and Pike does seem to get the best out of him.
1 At The Ready (Bet Now: $4.20) can certainly turn the tables on Red Army. This pair clashed in the race mentioned above where Jordan Turner steered. He had the back of Red Army throughout and presented to win the race but the fav just packed too many punches. Gets a weight pull and Tayla Stone on, a win wouldn’t surprise.
6 First Affair (Bet Now: $34.00) could run a place with the right run in transit. Adam Durrant trains this mare who comes through the Red Army race here from a fortnight back where she had a nice sit throughout and tried hard but lacked the class to go with them late. Think something similar will eventuate here, but senior jock back on, she can run well.
Race 3. (15:13) Tabtouch Handicap (1MW) 1000m
8 Lady Le Jean (Bet Now: $5.00) for me. Justin Warwick trains this mare, who resumed in the Dia de La Raza race at this track/distance a fortnight ago where she got well off the pace in the run and for mine just looked in need of the run but closed off well enough to my eye. 1/1 second up, should be much fitter and gets a beaut draw.
5 Mantime (Bet Now: $3.90) is gradually getting back to peak fitness for the Lindsey Smith team. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he was up near the speed throughout, having the suck run before angling clear and trying hard but was no match for the leader/winner Dia de La Raza. Tricky draw, but third up, should be ready fitness wise.
2 Khan (Bet Now: $5.00) is the clear watch horse. Former Snowden galloper making his WA debut for the Chris Gangemi and the stable has a fab record at improving tried horses. Looked to trial up very well a couple of weeks back here over 1000m, so he’s had a good grounding for the resumption. Wet track the only query.
Race 4. (15:53) Crown Perth Plate 1300m
1 Double Bubble (Bet Now: $1.80) should be putting this field away. Looks a very good filly for the Simon Miller team who is 2/2 to start her career, both wins coming here. Debuted with a sharp win over 1000m before stepping up to 1200m in a Class One and being even more impressive. Looks an exciting prospect and quite keen on her making it 3/3.
I think the weather will be vital to the chances of 2 Rebel Knight (Bet Now: $6.50). If the track remains to have give in it, he’s a place chance because he’s not as effective compared to what he is on top of the ground, and that was evident to see over 1400m here two weeks back behind Snowchino. Winkers FT to sharpen him up too, hopefully.
4 Pagan Image (Bet Now: $15.00) looks the only threat. Adam Durrant trains this filly, who didn’t have much luck on debut at Northam before racing over 1400m here last Wednesday where Pike had her on speed and once he clicked her up, away she went and she bolted in. Not sure she beats Double Bubble but runs well regardless.
Race 5. (16:33) Magic Millions Handicap (1MW) 1400m
I think the race evolves around 11 Rogan Scent (Bet Now: $7.50) and her fitness levels because I think if she’s right, she should be beating this lot. She hasn’t raced since April when racing like a tired horse behind Broker. Been given a good break and looked very good in a recent Lark Hill trial. Good fresh record…just has to overcome the gate to be winning IMO.
8 Bold Success (Bet Now: $4.00) can win but I’ve had enough of putting him on top. Given the ability he has, he has to go in the numbers because one day he’ll put it all together and win, otherwise why would the stable persist. Ran over 1300m here a fortnight back and was solid enough behind Turbo Power but couldn’t quite dash. Hopefully on firmer footing, he can.
Expect an improved showing from 1 Russian River (Bet Now: $13.00). He resumed in the Turbo Power race mentioned above where he was eased back to last in the run and couldn’t run on at all but his late splits weren’t too bad. Has a much better second up record and if he can sit closer in the run, perhaps he can fill a place.
Race 6. (17:08) Mrs Mac's Handicap (72+) 1200m
5 Battle Brewing (Bet Now: $16.00) will do me here. Former SA galloper who had his first run for Fred Kersley down the straight at Pinjarra where he didn’t look comfortable at all but once he balanced up, he was pretty good late behind Sharpbob. Will be much better suited up to 1200m and back to a bending track. Great each way gamble.
12 Turbo Power (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Neville Parnham trained gelding who is racing very well at the moment. Solid placing behind Pym’s Royale two back before bolting up over 1300m here two weeks ago, leading throughout and showing a nice turn of foot when asked for the big effort in the straight. Back 100m in trip no issue.
The horse who should get a lovely run off the speed is 4 Settlers Creek (Bet Now: $23.00). Controversial tactics on the horse first up before having a touch of the second up syndrome last time out behind Atlanta Blue. Third up back to 1200m off a good speed, perhaps on firmer footing, he can bounce back hard.
Race 7. (17:45) Peninsula Mile (78+) 1600m
Toughest test to date but I love the way 11 Battle Torque (Bet Now: $5.50) is going about his business. He is looking for five on end, with his last two wins coming at this track/distance and gee he has been impressive each time he has stepped out, the latest being two weeks ago. If he handles the class rise, he should take beating.
9 State Prosecutor (Bet Now: $3.50) is the class of the field but back to the mile fresh is the little query. He hasn’t raced for five weeks since running second to Come Play With Me in the Belmont Classic. if this was 2000m, he’d be a moral, but wide gate, back to the mile, there are a few risks and I couldn’t back him to win with confidence.
4 Dark Musket (Bet Now: $41.00) is likely on the Perth Cup path but I didn’t mind his resumption over 1400m here a fortnight back, getting well off the pace in the run but wound up quite well late in the piece behind Atlanta Blue. Will need another run or two I suspect, but he’s got the quality to fill a first four spot.
Race 8. (18:25) Lavazza Handicap (66+) 1600m
4 Luke’s Gold (Bet Now: $7.50) looks another solid gamble, and hopefully he’s an each way price. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he got well back before presenting wide in the straight and finishing off quite well to run fourth to Atlanta Blue. Blinkers FT to sharpen him up, hopefully he can sit closer in the run.
10 Midnight Sky (Bet Now: $2.80) is an Adam Durrant trained mare who is racing so well at the moment but just can’t quite crack it for a win. He ran over 1400m here a fortnight back where it looked as if it was going to be another Pike masterclass but just found Prize Catch too good. Up to the mile, she’ll take beating.
12 Scooner (Bet Now: $41.00) is a Stephen Miller trained gelding who was okay first up behind Tellem We’re Comin before racing in the Broome Cup where he didn’t handle the surface at all and finished tailed off. Been given a few weeks to get over that and ability wise, he can certainly beat these. Hopefully gets three wide cover and launches late.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Double Bubble
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Red Army
LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 5 Battle Brewing
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 7, 8, 11
Leg Two: 1, 4, 5, 8, 12
Leg Three: 4, 5, 9, 11
Leg Four: 3, 4, 10, 11, 12
$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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