25/7/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville, Lightning Stakes day

The smell of Spring in Adelaide is approaching this Saturday at Morphettville with some decent youngsters stepping out in the feature, the Lightning Stakes (1050m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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8 Ourkhani (Bet Now: $8.50) is knocking on the door to win one for the Jolly camp. Ran third to Hasta La Fiorente two back before coming back to 1800m where he was ridden stone cold before slicing his way through the field and surging hard late to just miss out on picking up Elusive Rose. Back up in trip, he’s likeable against these.

3 Bertwhistle (Bet Now: $2.90) is a Darryl Dodson trained mare that’s racing in career best form at the moment. Has won two of her past three, with a fifth in between. Latest win came at Gawler two weeks ago when near the speed under Crowther and her staying prowess came to the fore late when edging out Manzala. Going well this girl and can win again.

7 Classy Joe (Bet Now: $6.00) has to be respected because John Hickmott has him going super. He ran over 1700m at Gawler two weeks ago, which was his third run in as many weeks, and he bolted up in an impressive win. Did fail at this trip a couple of times towards the end of last year, but he looks a much better horse this time around.

Have to be with 4 Hasta La Fiorente (Bet Now: $4.00) for Sue Murphy. Impressive winner two back over 2000m at Murray Bridge before coming back to 1800m at that track three weeks ago and I think with clear air, he goes close to winning when a luckless sixth to Elusive Rose. Back up in trip I do like and with the rub of the green going his way, he can win here.

2 Turf Man (Bet Now: $5.50) is a John Hickmott trained gelding that’s been up a fair while but continues to race pretty well. Three weeks between runs since racing over 2500m at Murray Bridge when off the speed under Fawke before gradually creeping into the race and in a driving go to the line, he finished best to get there. He’ll be around the mark again against this lot.

5 Disco Rebel (Bet Now: $6.50) is a John Dunn trained mare that has been in work a long time but is holding her form. Comes through the Turf Man race from three weeks back at Murray Bridge when near the speed throughout under Krystal Bishop and tried hard, but couldn’t hold out Turf Man. Not sure she wins, but can fill a first four spot.

Looks a lovely race for 2 Calypso Reign (Bet Now: $3.20). Forget he went around last Saturday at Flemington. The speed was barrier trial like and considering the winner ran a tick over 33 for the final 600m, those near the back, including this guy, had no chance. Much better suited here, sits off a good speed and think he’ll finish over the top like he did two back at Murray Bridge.

3 Classy Jaybee (Bet Now: $3.40) is a son of Danerich for the John Hickmott camp that had put together a couple of really strong wins prior to racing at Gawler a fortnight back when chasing The Natural all the way and did try hard, but the McEvoy three year old was just too good on the day. Not sure what upside he’s got left, but is hard fit and racing well.

8 Renouf (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Matty Williams trained filly that can take this out. Ran at Gawler two weeks ago where she was probably a touch too close to the speed due to the inside gate, and I reckon it took something away from her finale when third to The Natural. Think with a more conservative steer, she’ll be far more effective.

2 Star Of Monsoon (Bet Now: $4.80) is bursting to win a race for Grant Young. He’s going really well this former Sydney galloper but just can’t quite crack it for a win. Loomed as a winning threat on the Parks track last time but couldn’t quite finish it off behind Irish Mint, eventually finishing third. Think the fast pace here will really suit.

9 Nasifa (Bet Now: $4.00) is an interesting runner for the Kylie Huxtable team. Ran over 1200m at Murray Bridge three weeks ago where she was second up. Near the speed throughout and battled away really well when bloused late by Silverhawk. Back to 1050m is interesting but I think with a more conservative steer, she’ll be more effective.

6 Schilldora (Bet Now: $4.80) finds a really winnable race here if she found anything near her old form. Ran in a strong race at Murray Bridge three weeks ago when near the speed throughout and battled away okay behind Winning Partner. That was a Benchmark 82. Now drops to 72 and remains well in at the weights. Hard to beat.

5 Octane (Bet Now: $1.70) is a very promising sprinter for Phillip Stokes that can clearly win again. Not much went his way here first up before going to Gawler a fortnight back where he was again near last in the run, but was within range on the turn and his turn of foot was just too much for his rivals in a fab win. He can go on with it now.

9 Rainmoth (Bet Now: $4.50) is a daughter of Barbados that resumes for Team Jolly. This mare hasn’t raced since the Greys Race during Cup Week at Flemington when near the speed and fighting on strongly when second to Bumper Blast, who looks a Stakes class horse, so that form reads well and the Balaklava trial was quite good.

10 Extreme Thrill (Bet Now: $9.00) can bounce back. Francis/Kent trained gelding that was luckless at Murray Bridge before backing up a week later here and he failed to fire on the wet track behind Arkham Knight. Has had a five week freshen up and been kept to the mark with a trial last Tuesday at Balaklava. Can run a much improved race at odds.

Not that well treated at the weights is 11 The Ant’s Pants (Bet Now: $9.50) but I think this Sue Jaensch trained mare is flying. Was one of the runs of the meeting two back behind Task And Purpose on the Parks track before racing there again last Saturday, but it was more like a barrier trial. Ugly watch if you were on. Better luck this time around up in trip on the course proper, she’ll take some beating.

1 Analytica (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Travis Doudle trained gelding that looks to be enjoying life under the care of his new trainer. Forget he went around behind Alsvior two back before going to Gawler two weeks ago when wide no cover throughout, and he was there to be beaten, but gee he showed good ticker to fend them off and win. Up to the mile, bigger track, hard to beat.

6 So We Are (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Phillip Stokes trained mare that’s teasing to win a race. Far from disgraced two back at the Valley behind Holbein before racing over 1800m at Murray Bridge where she was ridden quiet from the wide gate and worked home strongly behind Elusive Rose. She can sit much closer in the run and if that eventuates, think she’ll be dangerous.

4 Knowles (Bet Now: $11.00) looks ready to win for Jason Warren. Had a freshen up after a Sandown failure prior to her return at the Valley a few weeks ago where the track pattern was against her, but she was still very good in defeat and loved the way she found the line behind Kalkarni Royale. Knocking on the door and fitter, plus a sparkling jumpout a couple of weeks back at Mornington, she’ll do me.

10 Euphoric Summer (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Price/Kent trained filly that comes here four weeks between runs since racing over 1100m at Caulfield when wide throughout and battled away really well in defeat when fourth to Saltpeter. Tick over jumpout was impressive and she has the 2YO weight here, so easily likeable.

5 The Natural (Bet Now: $9.50) was the subject of one of the more bizarre betting drifts at Gawler two weeks ago. Opened around $3 and ended up starting near $7. The market said she had no legs, but she led throughout and produced one of the wins of the meeting, spanking them from the front. If she does that again here, she goes close to winning again.

10 The Difference (Bet Now: $2.50) finds a very winnable race here for Team McEvoy. Was a notable drifter in betting when resuming three weeks ago at Murray Bridge when back near last in the run before presenting into clear air in the straight and surging hard late to just miss out on picking up the in form Beermint. Up to 1200m, fitter, hard to beat.

9 Call Me Dexter (Bet Now: $10.00) was the subject of one of the remarkable wins of the season when winning at Gawler two weeks ago. Was tucked in behind the speed under Sairyn Fawke, but seemed to clip heels on the turn and did everything possible to dump Fawke, but he remained on, balanced up and the horse savaged the line to get up and win. He’s a nice horse this and can measure up again.

8 I’m A Legend (Bet Now: $6.00) is racing really well for Kristi Evans but just can’t quite crack it for a win. Ran at Gawler a fortnight back when back near last in the run before Vorster eased him wider and he let down hard out wide, just missing out on picking up Call Me Dexter. Just has to hold his form to go close to winning here.

Interesting to see how 5 Air Marshal (Bet Now: $3.20) goes for Will Clarken. Was very good in defeat two back at Murray Bridge before backing up a week later at Gawler and didn’t really fire a shot in a disappointing effort from the back behind The Natural. He’s better than that, so perhaps he didn’t handle the back up. Best is clearly good enough to beat these.

Fitter and up in trip I do like for the Bill Bogarts trained gelding 8 French Rock (Bet Now: $5.50). He was heavily backed when resuming over 1000m at Murray Bridge three weeks back where he was given a sweet ride by Tourneur and I thought was there to win. Just couldn’t quite get there when third to Beermint. He normally saves his best for first up, so interesting to see how he goes second up.

12 Wonder If (Bet Now: $16.00) will be strong late. Team Jolly trained gelding that ran over 1100m last Wednesday at Gawler when back near last in the run and finishing off with purpose late to run third. Riding him cold seems to be the most effective way of steering him, so if that can eventuate here and get to the outside, he’ll be launching late.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 2 Calypso Reign

NEXT BEST: Rave Five Number 5 Octane

LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 4 Knowles

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 6, 7, 11

Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 10, 11

Leg Three: 1, 8, 9, 10

Leg Four: 5, 8, 10, 12

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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