25/4/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Hawkesbury Cup day

Eight races will be run and won at Rosehill on Saturday, with the track hosting the standalone Hawkesbury program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Hawkesbury Guineas 🏆: View the Field for the Hawkesbury Guineas

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I think he only runs well here 5 Saffiano (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS). Debuted on the Kenso track last Wednesday where he didn’t show much early toe and was back near last, was wide and looked very raw, but loved the way he hit the line when balanced up. On his home track, up to 1400m, and if he can use gate one to advantage, he goes close to winning.

1 Formentera (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS) is a son of I Am Invincible for the WaterBott that should love the rise to 1400m after breaking the maiden tag over 1200m at Warwick Farm last start. Sat on speed throughout under Tim Clark before taking the front upon straightening and he was strong to the line and through it. Should land near the front here and prove hard to get past.

6 Cordyceps Miracle (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) is a Richard Litt trained colt that comes through the Spokesman race from Easter Monday at Warwick Farm. He had the good run just behind the speed and presented to win the race but couldn’t let down properly on the testing track. Think 1400m is no issue for him and getting back on top of the ground is a tick.

2 High Opinion (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) is definitely worth a throw at the stumps here for Kris Lees. Both runs this time in have come over the mile at Warwick Farm, resuming with a fourth to Royal Celebration before having no luck behind Kaapfever. Saves his best for 2000m, has enormous upside and the big ticks are getting onto a bigger track and up in distance.

13 Loves To Rock (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) is a mare that is flying at the moment for Anthony Cummings, winning her past two. First of which came over 1850m at Newcastle before going to 2100m at Wyong and she beat up an average bunch, but she spanked them and was impressive. Deserves a crack in town and gets Bossy to steer.

5 Travancore (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is knocking on the door to take one out. Thought he was good two back in the Muswellbrook Cup before going to the Wellington Cup where really, it was a bob of the head being the difference between winning and losing. Yet to be proven at 2000m, but is racing as if it will suit and finds a winnable race.

13 Word For Word (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) hasn’t been the most reliable mare for punters but her resumption at Warwick Farm on Easter Monday was encouraging. Was a pretty truly run 1400m and she came off the bit early. Given she was first up, was entitled to perhaps fade away but she kept chipping away and wasn’t too bad in defeat. Up to 1500m, firmer footing and fitter, she’s hard to beat.

I think the break between runs and back to 1500m should suit the John Thompson three year old 10 Grand Piano (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS), who put together a couple of sharp wins on the Kenso track before going to the Carbine Club where he seemed to get every chance when fourth to Entente and IMO, he just didn’t run out 1600m, so back on top of the ground, back to 1500m, he’s likeable for sure.

12 Mangione (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Fiorente for Chris Waller that resumes. This four year old gelding hasn’t raced since December 7 over 2000m here when down the track behind Guise but the start prior was given a really strong hitout and next start, was a tired horse. Been given a good break and thought his trial here on Monday was pretty good. One for exotics.

9 Sweet Scandal (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) just can’t draw a barrier, but the big ticks for her here are that on the map, she gets over comfortably to sit outside Irithea, and is back on a dry track. Wet tracks/wide gates have been her downfall this Autumn, but has been given a freshen up with this and the Dark Jewel in mind, and the tick over trial on Monday was good.

6 Bangkok (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is flying for Allan Denham. Group placings at her past two has sealed her career post racing with a strong third two weeks ago in the Sapphire against the slow tempo, but in saying that, she does love wet ground, something she won’t get here, so that’s the query with her here, but her dry track form isn’t too bad.

If a drop of rain was to hit, could easily make a case each way at big odds for 10 Nicci’s Gold (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS). Had nope given the slow tempo first up in the Sapphire but her late splits weren’t too bad behind White Moss in an encouraging return. She is a dynamite second up horse and loves Rosehill, so she does have a few things going for her.

1 Tactical Advantage (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Kris Lees trained sprinter that had trialled up pretty well prior to resuming in the Maurice McCarten where he struggled on the bottomless track behind Star Of The Seas. Then went to the Star Kingdom and was better behind Vegadaze, getting onto somewhat firmer footing. Track should be much firmer this time around and third up, is hard fit.

The best version of 2 Graff (Bet Now: $4.60) is certainly capable of spanking these. Quality four year old who is resuming for Kris Lees and with Aquis/Australian Bloodstock in the ownership now, his future post racing is sealed…now just needs a big race win next to his name to top off that CV. Thought the trials have been solid enough and I hope he is being trained purely as an 1100m-1200m sprinter.

6 Handle The Truth (Bet Now: $8.50) is an absolute beauty for Keith Dryden. Loved the way he knuckled down to win first up during the Canberra Carnival before going to the Star Kingdom where he couldn’t pick his feet up on the wet track in a total forgive behind Vegadaze. He is a dry track specialist, so if that can eventuate here, he can easily bounce back.

I’ll take a punt on 4 Bandersnatch (Bet Now: $6.50), a Gerald Ryan trained three year old that resumes. Had a really good Summer prep, winning three of four and finishing second in the other outing. Been given a good break and I’ve really liked the way he has trialled leading in. From the inside gate, hopefully holds up and leads, box seat at worst, and is hard to beat.

14 Icebath (Bet Now: $5.00) looks very well set up to take this out. Far from disgraced in the Kembla Grange Classic before being freshened up and contesting the South Pacific two weeks ago where if you were on, you could easily make a case that she should have won. Got badly held up while the winner Indy Car had all the momentum and that was the difference. Clear air for Icebath this time around and she can win.

It’s been an odd prep for 6 Spend (Bet Now: $8.50). Went to the George Ryder two back when running last to Dreamforce, then backed up a week later and contesting the Bendigo Guineas when on speed and tiring late when fourth to Riddle Me That. Has had the little break between runs and I think he maps super here if J Mac presses forward.

16 Live And Free (Bet Now: $6.50) is the big watch here. Does he need this run before going second up into the Scone Cup? Not sure. But think he’s in for a good prep. Teased to win one during the Spring, notably the second up run, the Festival, where he beat all bar Ranier. Trials leading in have been quite good. 1500m first up tells me he’s ready to go and shouldn’t be far away from the gate.

There is the theory that 8 Amangiri (Bet Now: $4.60) is a wet tracker. Yes, she handles it, but I think when it comes to proper blacktype company, she’s more effective on dry ground so with that in mind, I think she’s very dangerous here. Far from disgraced behind Positive Peace in the Emancipation before being down the track in the Coolmore Legacy. Rosehill 1500m, third up, hard fit, lands on speed and is hard to run down.

15 Aliferous (Bet Now: $15.00) is racing really well this time in but just can’t quite crack it for a win. Looked to have everything fall into place for her a few weeks ago in the Neville Sellwood and looked the winner, but was bloused late near the peg by Night’s Watch. She finds a winnable race…could you back her to win with confidence though?

2 Tricky Gal (Bet Now: $6.00) is a ripping mare for Matty Smith that really hasn’t done much wrong in her seven start career. Resumed in what looked a decent enough race at Warwick Farm and loved the way she knuckled down late to get up and score a big fresh win. Deserves a crack at Saturday grade and she’s a winner compared to some of these who are struggling to greet the judge first.

6 True Detective (Bet Now: $3.60) doesn’t have the greatest of winning strike rates, but the form around him does read well. Comes through the Arrowfield Sprint at Randwick where not much went right for him but late, thought he closed off well behind Splintex. Gets J Mac on from a good gate…looks a lovely assignment for him. Just whether he has that winning killer instinct.

5 Oakfield Missile (Bet Now: $17.00) is flying this time in. Two runs back from a break has seen her win a Qualifier for the Provincial Championship in impressive fashion at Newcastle before going to the Final and was very good without much luck in the straight behind Through The Cracks. Sits off a good speed here and is strong late. Knockout chance.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 13 Word For Word

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 5 Saffiano

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 9 Sweet Scandal

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg Two: 3, 4, 6, 14

Leg Three: 1, 6, 8, 15, 16

Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 6, 11

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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