A really good program has been assembled for Flemington on Saturday with good depth right across the board. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:40) : Gippsland Region Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Royal Symphony (Bet Now: $2.20) is an above average colt for the Tony McEvoy yard who debuted on the Pakenham Synthetic on May 25 where he was very confidently backed and he didn’t let his supporters down with a dominant display and ran good time for the meeting. Up to 1400m looks perfect and I’m confident he can measure up.
Big Danger: 10 Wired (Bet Now: $14.00) comes through the Wanted Diva race at the Valley three weeks ago where Rawiller had the filly parked behind the speed but wide/no cover in a tricky spot and just looked a little lost on the home turn. Got balanced up in the straight and was sound to the line. Got the form on the board and is right in the game.
Long Shot: 12 Kardashing (Bet Now: $17.00) wasn’t really fancied to beat the stablemate Miss Toorak Flyer when resuming on the Pakenham Synthetic but to her credit, she showed superb fight on speed after being clearly headed to get the job done. On that run, 1400m will be no issue and the stable does have an opinion of her.
Race Two (12:15) : Barwon South West Region Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 2 Ken’s Dream (Bet Now: $6.50) is a quality three year old for the Darren Weir who should appreciate the return to the Flemington straight. He ran three weeks back at the Valley where he did a bit of work with the weight and barrier when a close up fifth to Katsuro. He has the class factor and looks well placed here.
Big Danger: 1 Ashlor (Bet Now: $6.50) is a talented youngster for the Daniel McCarthy yard who ran a beauty two back in the Euclase behind Sweet Sherry before sitting on speed at Morphettville and toughing it out strongly to get the job done. Trial at Corowa last week was outstanding and he is spot on for this.
Long Shot: 8 Wilde Gem (Bet Now: $21.00) is two for two and despite rising sharply in grade, he can measure up here at odds. Debuted with a sharp win on the Pakenham Synthetic before going to Mornington last Monday where he looked in a nasty spot but he got clear and savaged the line to get the win. Looks an exciting prospect so I’m keen to see what he does here.
Race Three (12:50) : London Mallee Region Handicap (90) 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Step The Pedal (Bet Now: $10.00) is a quality Tassie mare who creates some interest here. She has simply been too classy for them back home, putting together a number of brilliant wins on the trot, but due to her rating, she has to come to the mainland, and we saw last week with Lord Da Vinci that you shouldn’t underestimate these Tassie raiders.
Big Danger: 7 Wine Tales (Bet Now: $9.50) looked to trial up really well prior to resuming in the Heavenly Anna race at Randwick two weeks back where I thought she closed off her race really well in a race where those near the speed/rail dominated affairs. She does have a pretty good second up record, and with improvement from the fresh return, she is a knockout hope.
Long Shot: 12 Don’tbabylon (Bet Now: $8.00) is a gutsy mare for the Jarrod McLean yard. Ran at Sandown last time out over 1300m where she showed superb fight in the straight to win. Clearly headed a couple of times but just kept coming back under Beau Mertens to get the win. If the rain was definitely coming, she’d be a major, major contender. But even without it, she should run well.
Race Four (13:28) : Grampions Region Handicap (78) 2000m:
Back Me: 5 Sayed (Bet Now: $6.50) is an import for Chris Waller who has been excellent this time in. Two for three this prep with a Wyong second in the middle. The second win came last Wednesday at Sandown where he sat on speed under Craig Williams and showed great fight in the straight when challenged to kick back and get the win. Maps superbly here and rates highly.
Big Danger: 13 Sir Van Dyke (Bet Now: $10.00) had to come to Saturday grade. He gave them an absolute spanking last Monday at Mornington, aided by a beaut steer by Nolen, and the horse reacted by showing a decent turn of foot and putting them away on the turn. Very confident he can measure up here.
Long Shot: 8 Lautaro (Bet Now: $11.00) surprised many with his win at Scone two back, beating home a potential Stakes horse in Intercoluter, before going to Warwick Farm where he raced flat behind Segenhoe. Recent trial at Corowa was quite encouraging and he represents value here for sure, especially with the claim.
Race Five (14:05) : North East Region Handicap 2500m:
Back Me: If we get the rain that is forecast for the afternoon, then they will have a tough time beating 1 Megablast (Bet Now: $5.50). I wasn’t really keen on him here to begin with because the forecast was iffy, but now that the rain is just about definite, he is one of the hardest to beat. Did a ripping job on a rock hard track last Saturday and with some cushion here, he’s the one to beat.
Big Danger: 10 Charlevoix (Bet Now: $5.50) was given a beaut steer by Craig Williams to win two back under the Cranbourne lights before racing at this track/distance where he sat off the pace and tried hard when fourth to Falago. Now that he has had the hard 2500m run under the belt, he’ll be more effective.
Long Shot: 4 Cougar Express (Bet Now: $10.00) was unwanted in betting when racing over 2040m at the Valley three weeks back but to his credit, he ran an absolute beauty to my eye when fourth to Gallic Chieftain. He has since trialled over the jumps at the Bool and went very nicely to my eye there. Not sure he can win, but a must for multiples.
Race Six (14:45) : 2017 Country Achiever Gerald Egan Handicap 1100m:
Back Me: 15 Ability (Bet Now: $3.60) for me in a quality sprint race. The gelding operation could well be the making of this horse. Resumed over 1000m at the Valley where he sat back in a fast run race and he just rounded them up with absolute ease to score a high quality win. If he handles the straight, he’ll go close here.
Big Danger: 8 Rough Justice (Bet Now: $10.00) was kept quite safe in betting when resuming down the straight here two weeks back and he produced a ripping effort. Looked the winner for a few strides but proved no match for the hard fit Lake Como. Saves his best for the straight course and is a two time second up winner.
Long Shot: 4 Mighty Like (Bet Now: $19.00) is the big watch here. Very good sprinter that resumes for the Mick Price yard. He performed pretty well during the Winter/Spring, including an outstanding fresh win down the straight here when beating a quality field. Jump outs leading in have been quite encouraging and he is lethal when produced fresh.
Race Seven (15:25) : David Bourke Provincial Plate (90) 1600m:
Back Me: 6 Rewarding Effort (Bet Now: $2.80) was five weeks between runs when racing over 1400m here a fortnight back where he got back in a leader dominated affair and was never really a winning threat but I didn’t mind the way he found the line late in the piece. Third up now so he should be about ready fitness wise.
Big Danger: 7 Hot Ruby (Bet Now: $5.00) gave them a spanking over 2000m here two back before going to the 1500m at the Valley where I thought she was very good late when fourth to Violent Snow. 1600m here looks ideal and she did look sharp in a Pakenham trial win on Monday. Leading contender here.
Long Shot: 2 Lucky Paddy (Bet Now: $12.00) is the class of the field for Darren Weir who was unwanted in betting when resuming over 1400m here a fortnight back but he closed off okay against the tempo behind the Tassie ripper Tshahitsi. Horror record at Flemington but he goes well second up and in fact bolted in second up last prep off a similar fresh run.
Race Eight (16:05) : Brian Beattie Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Royal Rapture (Bet Now: $9.50) looks just about ready to show his best third up from a break. He was second up when racing at this track/distance a fortnight back and he loomed to win but his condition just gave out late behind Tshahitsi. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise and looms as a contender.
Big Danger: 10 Invinzabeel (Bet Now: $7.50) is the very interesting runner here. Chris Waller trained gelding who makes his Melbourne debut, and we know that with older horses, the trip away can spark them into action. Beaut ride from Tye Angland got him the win two back before being a flop behind Royal Tudor. Big watch.
Long Shot: 12 Typhoon Jolie (Bet Now: $34.00) was sharply in grade when contesting the Proud Miss at Morphettville during the Carnival over there where she sat on speed and looked to travel well throughout under Meech. Fought hard to be only beaten two lengths by the high class filly Fuhryk. Flemington 1400m should suit her, maps well and is a threat for sure.
Race Nine (16:38) : Bay And Ranges Region Handicap 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Widgee Turf (Bet Now: $5.50) is a very good three year old the Patrick Payne yard who will take some beating here. Was three weeks between runs when racing over 1400m at Sandown where he was ridden a treat by Ben Allen and the horse bolted in, and I liked the way he found the line and ran through it, suggesting the mile will be ideal and his trial at Avoca was very good.
Big Danger: 1 Urban Ruler (Bet Now: $10.00) bounced back to his best form two back on the Pakenham Synthetic and that done his confidence the world of good when he came here a fortnight back against the older horses and he was dominant. On that effort, he’ll eat up the mile here and rates highly for sure.
Long Shot: 11 Captain Rhett (Bet Now: $41.00) could be one to include in exotics. He is an out and out stayer but I loved his return over 1400m at Sandown, getting back off the speed in a slowly run affair but he closed off really nicely and I liked the way he ran through the line. Flemington mile looks ideal, he draws a good marble and he will be strong late, plus he has Group l form via Hardham/Ruthven.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 15 Ability
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 2 Widgee Turf
VALUE: Race Three Number 4 Step The Pedal
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Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 4, 6, 8, 15
Leg Two: 2, 6, 7, 11
Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 10, 12
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 11
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