Saturday racing in Sydney remains at Randwick this weekend, with eight races to be run and won, including two $100,000 Listed events, the Australia Day Cup (2400m) and the Carrington Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (1:10pm) : TAB Place Multi Plate 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Got it down to two winning hopes, Sebring Sun and Haptic (Best Odds: $1.75). I am going with the latter, because he just looks a very smart youngster for Godolphin and John O’Shea who was impressive in leading all the way to win a recent barrier trial at Rosehill, beating home Holler, who came out and bolted in last Saturday. This bloke travelled much better in the trial than Holler, so I’ll go with him.
Big Danger: Sebring Sun (Best Odds: $2.90) has got the raceday experience and a preparation under his belt. He made his debut back in October when running second to Pierrette after doing plenty wrong in the straight and probably costing himself victory. Spelled immediately and it looks to have done him the world of good based on how well he trialled recently at Warwick Farm. Major player here.
Roughie: Bannatyne (Best Odds: $21.00) is another first starter for Chris Waller by first season sire Rothesay. She has had three barrier trials to prepare for her debut on the track, winning two and finishing second in the other. One of those wins came recently on her home track where she sat behind the leader, peeled out and lengthened nicely under no real pressure to win comfortably. Keep an eye on betting.
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Race Two (1:45pm) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap (72) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to give Meursault (Best Odds: $2.40) another chance here. His two trials leading up to the first up run were encouraging, but when in the mounting yard, he looked quite big in condition and would improve big time on what he did. He only got beat in the last couple of strides by an above average type in Kaepernick, and comfortably beat the rest. He has a stack of ability, and being second up now, he should be much fitter, and I think he will take a stack of beating.
Big Danger: Coolcraft (Best Odds: $5.00) has been highly talked up by the stable, and he hadn’t done it on raceday. That was until last time out at Canterbury when he sat off the speed and savaged the line over the concluding stages to break his maiden status against horses who had won previously. His two runs at Randwick have been excellent and now that he has won, he could go right on with it.
Roughie: Kipling (Best Odds: $11.00) put behind him a frustrating run of outs when narrowly winning his maiden here on New Years Day, beating home Coolcraft, a rival of his here, who franked the form by winning his next start. He has been given a few weeks to get over the run, he’s fresh and never runs a bad race.
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Race Three (2:20pm) : TAB Rewards Handicap (80) 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks a lovely race, again, for Centre Pivot (Best Odds: $2.10), who has been placed beautifully by Sam Kavanagh this time in. He was given the dream steer from Macca last time out at Rosehill and the Segenhoe owned galloper duly won, bolting in by four lengths against a field which looked a bit harder than what he faces here. He can sit handy, which is what may need to happen here given there is barely any early speed. Either way, I think he wins.
Big Danger: The big improver here IMO is clearly Sense Of Occasion (Best Odds: $6.00), who looks as though he’ll get a very soft lead. In saying that, he was ridden off the speed two weeks back here and really hit the line with purpose when third to Diametric and The Alfonso. He doesn’t have to lead, but I suspect Shinn will, and he has been the best jockey to ride this track for the past 12 months.
Roughie: Proper Madam (Best Odds: $26.00) hasn’t had much go her way in two runs following her Warwick Farm win. At Canterbury she wasn’t suited by the slow speed behind Peace Force, then she raced here last Saturday and had no luck from the wide gate yet was only beaten four lengths. Draws much better, up to a more ideal trip and will appreciate some cushion in the track.
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Race Four (2:55pm) : Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap (90) 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Putting Inside Job (Best Odds: $4.00) on top. All of his runs this time in have been outstanding, most notably two back at Rosehill behind Craftiness where he was stuck four and five wide no cover with 59.5kg yet ran third, then came here two weeks back, and duly saluted, albeit narrowly. Got to rise a bit in weights again, but he has proven that isn’t an issue for him and again strikes a very winnable race.
Big Danger: Straturbo (Best Odds: $7.00) was pretty good in two runs in Melbourne before being sent to the Gold Coast and thanks to a gun ride from James McDonald, the gelding won the Magic Millions Sprint. Another that rises in weight, but does drop big time in class, and the last time he ran at Randwick, he was three lengths off Target In Sight.
Roughie: Earnest Ernest (Best Odds: $12.00) was just fair first up at Canterbury behind Religify, then trainer Joe Pride stepped him up to stakes level in the Takeover Target where he was far from disgraced behind Ball Of Muscle. He also ran in that race here Target In Sight won and was only a length off Straturbo and now gets a 2kg weight pull on that horse.
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Race Five (3:35pm) : James Boag’s Premium Handicap (80) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in Fiftyshadesofgrey (Best Odds: $8.00), who is absolutely flying this prep. She charged home to win three back at Rosehill, then worked to the line strongly here behind Jimmy Says Yes before getting too far back and savaging the line late when second to Supreme Effort on Gosford Cup Day. Looks suited here IMO given there are several speed runners engaged, plus she is down in the weights and will relish a softish track.
Big Danger: Role Model (Best Odds: $6.50) hasn’t been seen since finishing last in the Oaks behind Rising Romance. She was brought over from NZ in the hope of shaping up as a Cups horse, but injury foiled those plans. She’s back now, and has looked pretty impressive at the trials, most notably her latest trial when second to stablemate Countryman, who came out and bolted in on Wednesday. Class will take her a fair way towards victory.
Roughie: Rare Fragrance (Best Odds: $12.00) is back on the track after a little freshen up. The last time she ran was back November behind Hera at Rosehill, running third. First up last time in, she was three lengths off Fine Bubbles in the Tibbie. Good enough to be competitive here with Shinn booked to ride.
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Race Six (4:15pm) : Australia Day Cup 2400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Bunch of pluggers, but it should be an intriguing contest. I think there is a great each-way bet here and it comes courtesy of Ghost Protocol (Best Odds: $9.00). Should have beaten Multilateral two back here in the Tatts Cup, then went to the Gosford Cup and again got badly held up by Multilateral and went to the line under a hold when ninth to Midsummer Sun, beaten two lengths. Bigger track and back to 2400m looks ideal, as does the likelihood of a genuine tempo.
Big Danger: Danas Best (Best Odds: $4.20) resumed with an eye catching fourth to Vashka at Rosehill before being sent out as the best backed runner in the Stayers Cup on Magic Millions Day. He ran well, running fourth to Group l winner Tinto beaten two lengths, but I think the rain affected track probably didn’t suit him. He is a much better horse on top of the ground, so the weather will be imperative to his chances, but other elements including racing on his home track and up to 2000m should pose no worries.
Roughie: Off The Rails (Best Odds: $10.00) steps up to 2400m for the first time, but the son of Snitzel has had a fabulous prep, winning a couple of races and finishing in the placings in the remainder of the runs this time in, including a third in the race mentioned above in which Danas Best ran fourth in. A cold ride should allow him to get 2400m. Rock hard fit and unbeaten at Randwick.
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Race Seven (4:55pm) : Carrington Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: She’s Clean (Best Odds: $3.90) clearly on top for me. She had been performing well without winning in Melbourne during the Spring/Summer before Chris Waller sent her back to Sydney, and it paid off with the mare spanking her rivals here two weeks back, winning by a space despite not being fully extended by Blake Shinn. It had been a while since she greeted the judge, so it was a timely confidence boost. Looks one of the better bets on the card.
Big Danger: That’s A Good Idea (Best Odds: $4.20) was ridden an absolute treat by Bowman in the Takeover Target on Gosford Cup Day and it almost got the win, but the horse was nailed right on the line by a beauty in Ball of Muscle. No Ball Of Muscle here, returns to Randwick and steps up to 1400m for the first time under the care of Team Snowden. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Heart Testa (Best Odds: $10.00) was freshened after running last in the Festival and the horse came back in the Canterbury Classic, and I thought he was fantastic there at huge odds when fourth to Barbed, beaten just over a length. Randwick record is pretty poor, but it was hard to ignore that effort last start.
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Race Eight (5:35pm) : TAB.com.au Handicap (80) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for Harrier Jet (Best Odds: $3.20). He started odds on last time out at Rosehill and ended up getting rolled by Shiraz, but Harrier Jet isn’t a leader, so I can forgive him for that failure. He won’t lead here, and will sit off a good speed, perhaps a strong one if the emergencies gain a start. Keen on him bouncing back.
Big Danger: Shiraz (Best Odds: $5.00) seems to race best when kept on the fresh side, and this’ll be his first run since nabbing Harrier Jet at Rosehill three weeks ago, sitting outside that horse and just wearing him down close to home. He does meet that horse a kilo worse off at the weights, but is in a similar boat to Harriet Jet in the sense that he doesn’t have to go forward. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Expecting a much better run from Chestnut Road (Best Odds: $15.00) here. His two runs this time in have both been here and both times he has run well, running third behind Montiro on Boxing Day and then third again to Timeless Prince, beaten just over a length. The key to this horse is getting the blinkers back on and a more genuine tempo.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 6 She's Clean
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Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 5, 6, 9, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 7, 9
Leg Three: 1, 2, 5, 6
Leg Four: 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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