Feature racing in Melbourne heads to Moonee Valley this Saturday for a nine race card, highlighted by the $200,000 Group ll Jeep Australia Stakes (1200m), where we see the return of multiple Group l winner Dissident.
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Race One (12:55pm) : Schweppes Handicap (70) 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: First race and best bet on the card IMO in the shape of Royal Snitzel (Best Odds: $2.10). She showed very good promise during the Winter in her first prep, winning her first two runs before beating all but subsequent Group l placegetter Sabatini in the Quezette. Dodged the Spring, and it looks to have paid off for Mick Price judging by how well she looked in a recent jump out at Sportingbet Park. Draws wide, but she has the early speed to get across and gets in so well at the weights after the claim for kiwi apprentice Mick Dee.
Big Danger: Shaf (Best Odds: $9.00) was first up since his Eureka Stockade fourth on Ballarat Cup Day when attempting to lead all the way here, and on the turn he looked the clear horse to beat, but he got the staggers up late and tired badly to run fourth. He is much better ridden off the speed, but given he is drawn immediately inside Royal Snitzel, Williams may look to jump quick, give the favourite a drag across and look to outgun him late.
Roughie: Just Magical (Best Odds: $16.00) won his first two runs this time in impressively before having not much luck at Mornington against the older horses when fourth to Maasai Justice after sitting wide with no cover throughout. Should get a much softer trip here and has won at the track.
Race Two (1:30pm) : TCL 4K UHD TV Handicap (84) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: It’s One (Best Odds: $3.60) did a bit of work last week at Sportingbet Park, sitting wide throughout yet was very strong through the line and did the job well enough to win impressively. Rises in class, but tumbles in weight, draws well and gets Chris Parnham in the saddle. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Arena Rock (Best Odds: $3.70) is absolutely flying for Luke Oliver, winning her last two, starting off here before going to Flemington and beating a class mare in Every Faith. Rises significantly in weight now, but draws to get another sweet trip and she really seems to run for Jacob Rule.
Roughie: Chiquada (Best Odds: $4.80) sat on the speed in that Flemington race Arena Rock won, and just looked to travel a touch too keenly in the run, leaving her with nothing left for the straight. That was her first run since late November, so I’d expect improvement, plus she seems to race best here.
Race Three (2:05pm) : Chandler Macelod Handicap (78) 2040m: Form Guide
Back Me: Baja Moon (Best Odds: $6.50) has been quite impressive in two runs back from a spell, starting off with an unlucky second to Onedaysoon at Kyneton before starting at short odds and bolting in at Sale. Patrick Payne isn’t one to throw a horse straight in the deep end from a maiden, so the fact he has here with this filly is a pretty good indication.
Big Danger: Lucques (Best Odds: $4.80) fought them off strongly to win two back at Geelong before going to Sportingbet Park where she got a mile back, and looked gone 600m out, but picked up the bit and really surged late to run second. That sort of racing pattern isn’t suited here, but he looks very progressive and draws well for an in form yard.
Roughie: Zahspeed (Best Odds: $6.50) won that Sportingbet Park race Lucques ran second in after rolling along at a good tempo in front and just kept finding under the surges of boom UK apprentice Kieran Shoemark. Should roll forward again from the wide barrier, and in terms of facts and figures, he is just about level with Lucques here.
Race Four (2:40pm) : 1PRINT Handicap (78) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Relentless (Best Odds: $6.50) worked to the front last time out at Sportingbet Park and just kept finding to win narrowly, but impressively. Third up now, so he should be near peak fitness and does race well at the Valley. Hard to beat provided he doesn’t cop too much pressure in front.
Big Danger: Priority Road (Best Odds: $6.00) did a stack of work under the lights here three weeks back yet still savaged the line and got the job done narrowly ahead of Coronation Shallan. Might have to do some work here also, but he does drop a fair bit in class and has an excellent record at the track.
Roughie: Daybreak (Best Odds: $10.00) finished fifth in that race here Priority Road saluted in, and he was game here also given he also sat wide throughout outside a strong speed. Provided he can get cover from a tricky draw, he will be in the finish. Hasn’t won for a while is the worry, but gets Chris Parnham and is a two time winner here.
Race Five (3:15pm) : City Jeep Handicap (78) 2040m: Form Guide
Back Me: Pretty keen here on Valediciton (Best Odds: $4.80), who bounced back to winning form with a dominant on speed win last week at Sportingbet Park over 2100m, beating home a slightly easier field to what he faces here. His lone run here was in March last year, and he led all the way, and that’s what may eventuate here now he is third up from a break and Ollie sticks.
Big Danger: Vintage Lad (Best Odds: $6.50) just looked run off his legs last time out at the Bool in the Koroit Cup, but he got balanced up and really savaged the line late when a nose second to Upbeat. His first up run was excellent when fifth to Tonopah, and that form has been franked. Tough draw, but a definite contender.
Roughie: Gingerboy (Best Odds: $6.50) is a tough stayer who rarely runs a bad race, and has really found some consistency this time in, winning his past two, starting off here, then at Flemington in what looked a pretty handy race. Gets in well here after the claim for Jordan Childs and he loves the Valley.
Race Six (3:55pm) : Antler Luggage VOBIS Gold Star 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: I am going with Profit Share (Best Odds: $3.60) to bounce back. Through no fault of jockey Brad Rawiller, the horse was ridden a pair or two too close to the speed in the Gold Carat here and was left with nothing left for the straight when third to the highly impressive Fast Cash. Go back to the start prior and he ran second to in form mare Madam Gangster at Flemington. Repeat that and he goes very close here.
Big Danger: Anfitriona (Best Odds: $8.00) worked home very strongly two weeks back at Flemington when fourth to Specter, getting a long way back from the wide barrier. First up she was ridden too aggressively and folded up, but the key to her is definitely get cover and save her for the last bit. Draws wide again, but senior rider takes over now and this mare should have some upside.
Roughie: Turf Crusher (Best Odds: $8.00) put them away smartly on speed on debut at Bairnsdale, then went to city level at Adelaide and again did something similar to the debut win, sitting on speed and kicking again in the straight to win comfortably. Biggest test to date here, but given his racing pattern, he is really likeable.
Race Seven (4:35pm) : Jeep Australia Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Dissident (Best Odds: $1.85) looks the one to beat here. His Spring and Cox Plate dreams were finished after he bled in the Caulfield Stakes when sixth to Fawkner. Before then he ran three cracking races at Group l level, including a stunning first up win in the Memsie. Recent jump out was nothing spectacular, and this is only a $200,000 Group ll, so I am certain he isn’t wound up for this, but his class will carry him a hell of a long way.
Big Danger: It Is Written (Best Odds: $8.00) is an absolute beauty around here and he improved his record to six wins from 17 starts here with a good win last time out in a pretty handy race. Bit like most here, WFA isn’t his go, but he loves the track, and is rock hard fit, so that brings him into the mix.
Roughie: Smokin’ Joey (Best Odds: $19.00) is the other multiple Group l winner kicking off his Autumn here. He was very good at the end of the Spring and then when going over to Perth for the Railway where he was outstanding behind Elite Belle. Comes here similar to that of Moment Of Change. No jump outs, just resumes here. Draws well and gun Perth apprentice Chris Parnham takes the mount.
Race Eight (5:15pm) : Alternate Railway Handicap (90) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Scarlet Billows (Best Odds: $5.00) was given a beaut ride by Michelle Payne to win first up at Mornington before racing down the straight at Flemington and running a narrow fourth to Convincible, beaten less than a half length. Back to a turning track and should get a hot speed to sit off.
Big Danger: Soosa Rama (Best Odds: $7.50) loomed to win first up at Sportingbet Park, but just looked to peak on her run late when fifth to Relentless, who I like earlier on in the day, so you’ll get a guide on how strong the form is by the time they jump here. Ollie sticks, drawn well, down in the weights and is unbeaten here in two runs.
Roughie: Nadeem Lass (Best Odds: $15.00) is first up since the Spring Carnival, where she contested blacktype company and was far from disgraced, racing beside the likes of Suavito, Star Fashion and Politenes. 1200m is short of her best, but she gets barrier one, handles the track and is a good fresh horse.
Race Nine (5:50pm) : Sportingbet Powered By William Hill Handicap (78) 1000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in Beckon (Best Odds: $21.00). He had a prep in Sydney during the Winter and wasn’t too bad, winning at Rosehill two back before looking like a tired horse at the end. Has been given a good spell, and his jump outs have been encouraging. Races well first up and does appear well suited given he is drawn outside Neat Feat, a noted speedster. Solid each way bet IMO.
Big Danger: Gallant Harmony (Best Odds: $7.00) has been excellent in two runs back from a break, starting off with closing third to Sweet Emily in a 55 second challenge here. He then went to Flemington and again stormed home when second to Play Master, who is a potential stakes horse, so the form around him is very good. Was due to run at Geelong on Wednesday, but instead runs here in the harder race, a sign of confidence from the stable.
Roughie: Pink Perfection (Best Odds: $8.50) was a touch tardy to begin with here last time out, and pretty much lost all hope when fourth to Override. Expect her to ping the lids and look for a nice sit off the back of a very hot tempo with the likes of Fab Fevola and The Monstar engaged.
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BEST BET: Race One Number 4 Royal Snitzel
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 4 Valediction
VALUE: Race Nine Number 4 Fab Fevola
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 8, 9, 10, 12
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 11
Leg Four: 2, 4, 8, 11, 15
$50 Investment= 7.81% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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