The Sydney Autumn Carnival wraps up this Saturday at Randwick where it is All Aged Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres from the 1000m-Winning Post; Out four metres for the remainder.
All Aged Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the All Aged Stakes
Champagne Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Champagne Stakes
Race 1. (11:55) Vale Neville Layt Highway (c3) 1200m
12 Ceasefire (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) is a very promising three year old for Paul Messara that looks a potential Country Championships horse for next year. He spanked them on debut at Tamworth, then proved that was no fluke with another dominant win, this time at Muswellbrook. Has run sharp time both runs/wins and the way he races, the 1200m should be fine.
Was a ripping steer from Nick Heywood to get 11 Ahead Start (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) to win fresh at Wellington. Got into a tricky spot from the gate but Heywood went to the best part of the track at Wellington – the inside. Saved ground throughout, cut corners and sliced his way through the field for a dominant. Keen to see how he goes.
14 Wave Maker (Bet Now: $41.00 TOP ODDS) is a son of Dissident for Ed O’Rourke that resumes. Handy three year old that hasn’t raced since October 27 when doing work in the run and just failing to finish it off when fourth. Interesting he resumes without a trial, but reckon he has the engine under the hood to be competitive.
Race 2. (12:35) J H B Carr Stakes 1400m
2 Kiku (Bet Now: $2.40 TOP ODDS) has really come of age this time in for Chris Waller and no reason why she can’t continue winning. Produced a strong sustained run from off the speed to win the Carbine Club two weeks ago, producing great late splits in winning. Back to her own age/sex I like and back to 1400m is no issue, provided they don’t turn this into a sit/sprint.
4 Geist (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) looks suited up in trip for James Cummings. This filly contested the PJ Bell and she ran an absolute beauty. There were a few punters that liked her at big odds, backing her into $27 from $67, and she worked home with real purpose when third to Matchmaker. Off that, the 1400m should be fine.
6 All Hallow’s Eve (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) should love the rise to 1400m for John O’Shea. Like most of the key chances here, they ran two weeks ago in the PJ Bell and she was excellent from near last in the run when beaten just over a length by Matchmaker. That was her first run in just under a month so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.
Race 3. (13:10) Frank Packer Plate 2000m
2 Khoekhoe (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) looks just about ready to win. Thought he was very good in defeat two back in the Rosehill Guineas before going to the Derby. On the turn, it was no betting. He looked the winner. Just couldn’t quite finish it off. I think firmer footing and back to 2000m with an eye towards the SA Derby should see him prove hard to beat.
1 Lion’s Roar (Bet Now: $2.10 TOP ODDS) is flying for John O’Shea and has pretty much been the most consistent three year old this Carnival. Hasn’t been far away in every run, winning the Randwick Guineas three back. Then far from disgraced in the Rosehill Guineas before being beaten a lip in the Derby by Explosive Jack. Hard to beat against these.
3 High Supremacy (Bet Now: $3.00 TOP ODDS) should love the rise to 2000m. You could spend a while discussing the ride from J Mac aboard this guy in the Carbine Club. He should have gone close to winning instead of a fourth to Kiku. He looks a progressive type and that was his first run in over a month so there should be room for improvement.
Race 4. (13:45) Jra Plate 2000m
5 Entente (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) should prove hard to beat here for the WaterBott camp. Three weeks between runs since racing in the Neville Sellwood at Rosehill and I thought the ride from Clark was poor. Just gifted the front to J Mac aboard Shared Ambition and it was race over. This horse races best when leading, so I hope that does eventuate here.
1 Zaaki (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) is a potential star of the upcoming Brisbane Carnival so will be interesting to see how he goes here. Made his Australian debut in the Doncaster and he was the run of the race in defeat behind Cascadian. Had he drawn a better gate, I think he wins the race. Any hint of improvement off that and he’ll take beating.
6 Grey Lion (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) won this race a couple of years ago at big odds and I reckon he’s sneaky flying the old boy. Beaten 6.5L in the Doncaster Prelude by Yao Dash, but he was back near last in the run and it was a meeting where on speed/fence was gold. He had a piece of work last Tuesday with Sir Dragonet and to my eye, he went clearly the better. I can easily have something on him at big odds.
Race 5. (14:20) Hall Mark Stakes 1200m
4 Roheryn (Bet Now: $5.50) is a hard horse to catch given his racing pattern but he does have a real love affair with Randwick. He ran in the Star Kingdom at Rosehill and closed off with real purpose late when third to Signore Fox. Back to his favourite track, better for the run, he’s a leading chance.
5 Signore Fox (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Team Snowden trained sprinter who can mix his form but one thing that is clear is the horse loves to run for J Mac, with the two combining for five wins from as many runs. That latest of those wins came three weeks ago when winning the Star Kingdom at Rosehill. He was fence in run, which was gold, and he finished best. Harder here, but this looks a suitable race for him in the sense they’re not aiming too high.
I think 3 Deprive (Bet Now: $7.00) is back on track. There was enough in his Star Kingdom effort to suggest he’s back. Against the track pattern, he made up good ground and clocked some of the better late splits of the race. He loves Randwick and Rachel King does get on well with this horse.
Race 6. (14:55) Champagne Stakes 1600m
1 Captivant (Bet Now: $3.80) looks on track and the big key to him is getting a firmer track…and hopefully we get that despite fine weather forecast for the entire week. He was very good in the Slipper and much the same in the Sires behind Anamoe. He’s racing as if the mile will suit and has upside compared to some here, who have been up a while.
2 Hilal (Bet Now: $3.80) is the other key hope from the Sires. He got back and made up good ground I thought without troubling the winner Anamoe. Still, he ran a closing second and interesting that the stable have spelled Saif and are going chips in for Group l glory in this race via this colt. Hard to beat.
14 Gin Martini (Bet Now: $8.00) should appreciate the rise to the mile. John Sargent trained filly that ran over 1400m three weeks ago at Rosehill and admittedly was nearer the inside, which was gold, but she still found the line with purpose and was good in defeat. Always have to respect this stable when they step up a younger horse in trip.
Race 7. (15:35) All Aged Stakes 1400m
1 Kolding (Bet Now: $7.50) can run a much improved race, hopefully on firmer footing. He ran in the George Ryder where he didn’t get much luck from the wide gate and just didn’t get involved at all, so forget he went around. His overall form…gee it just reads so well for a race like this and the double figures is more than acceptable.
2 Masked Crusader (Bet Now: $3.00) does look the most obvious. The negative with him is this habit of not being clean away from the gates. It’s going to cost him in these big races. This isn’t an Everest class field so missing the start isn’t that big of a negative but it was the case in the TJ Smith and he was huge in defeat behind Nature Strip. He has the right form to be winning this.
9 I Am Superman (Bet Now: $19.00) has been kept on ice in search of a dry deck and he should get that here. Hasn’t raced since securing a Doncaster berth in the Ajax when finishing best on firm footing. Was scratched from the Doncaster due to a wet track so stable have been patient. Could they be rewarded here?
Race 8. (16:15) Yarraman Park (bm100) 1400m
4 Bottega (Bet Now: $7.00) is flying. Just around a year between wins though is the knock but to be fair, he has contested some very strong races throughout his career during that time, including last start when a good third from off the pace in the Doncaster Prelude behind Yao Dash. Has a liking for Randwick and will be charging late.
9 Starspangled Rodeo (Bet Now: $5.00) has been up a while, but he is holding his form superbly for Bjorn Baker. He was there to be run down three weeks back at Rosehill but he fought so hard. Great News had him beaten but he dug in when required and was too good. Harder here, but lands on speed and will give a sight.
14 Nudge (Bet Now: $5.00) is bursting to win a race and I think she gets a golden chance here. Was hard to miss her finale fresh behind Yao Dash and you can double down on that comment three weeks ago. She was one of the runs of the meeting behind Starspangled Rodeo. If she’s within range 400m out, she’ll take beating.
Race 9. (16:55) Fujitsu General Sprint (bm88) 1200m
10 Lucicello (Bet Now: $20.00) has come back really well for Chris Waller and I think is hard to beat here. Just needed the run fresh behind Liberty Sun in what was more or less a barrier trial. Then raced on the Kenso track and for a couple of strides looked like she was going to beat Lost And Running but that horse had race fitness and class, and was too good. Third up, hard fit now, leading contender.
It’ll be interesting with 2 Lost And Running (Bet Now: $3.00) and how he sees out 1200m. The indications are there that he should be fine, but those indicators have come at midweek metro level, and it’s always dangerous charging into midweek form when it comes to Saturday company, so watch the market and see what it does.
3 True Detective (Bet Now: $23.00) is a son of Shamus Award for Chris Waller that resumes. This guy had a four run Summer prep, but didn’t really fire a shot for the most part, but at the same time, he did race near some talented types. He usually sprints well fresh, so will be interesting to see what the market does.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Four Number 5 Entente
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 2 Kiku
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 1 Kolding
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 5, 14
Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 9, 11
Leg Three: 4, 9, 12, 14
Leg Four: 2, 10
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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