24/4/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Diggers Cup day

Nine races have been set down for Ascot this Saturday where it is Sheila Gwynne Classic Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Fitter and up to 1500m, I’m in the corner of 2 Platinum Label (Bet Now: $4.00). This gelding resumed over 1300m at Pinjarra on what turned out to be quite a testing track. I thought he was very good from the back when third to Hinchinmose. Gets extra ground this time and the overall depth isn’t strong.

4 Crossed Swords (Bet Now: $2.40) is a son of City Place for Steele Casey that resumes. This four year old hasn’t raced since his debut on Boxing Day back in 2019 when leading and was run down late in the final few strides. Just one 1000m trial to get ready for his return, and resuming at 1500m I find interesting, so watch the market.

1 Astarba (Bet Now: $2.70) is a leading chance. Just steadily got better with each outing, his latest effort coming over 1400m at Bunbury when working home with real purpose when third to Scorpion Stormz. If he can use the inside gate to advantage, he’ll take a power of beating against these.

Tricky race so having somewhat of a throw at the stumps in the shape of 8 Zip Zam Zoom (Bet Now: $8.00). Was keen on his chances here on the Good Friday meeting but just took a little too long to wind up. Was much better last Wednesday over the mile here and surged hard, just missing out on the win. Hard fit now and up to 1800m, I think he runs well against this lot.

4 Blackwater Bay (Bet Now: $2.80) is a son of Blackfriars for Adam Durrant that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since October 28 where he resumed over the mile here. He had a suck run nearer the inside and tried hard. Just couldn’t get there when a close up third. Just one soft trial leading in but Pike booked is a decent lead.

3 Friar’s Fantasia (Bet Now: $5.00) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates, but is racing well and I think is nearing a win. Ran over the mile here last Wednesday where I thought CJP gave her a sweet steer near the speed and she was there to win. But, perhaps she got shy of the winning post, running a narrow second. She’s honest, does try hard…just doesn’t win, so a first four threat.

Looks to be good speed engaged here. I think that set up will suit 1 Ain’t No Other Man (Bet Now: $4.20) for the Casey team. Ran over 1100m here two weeks ago where he had the perfect sit behind the speed. Once he got the inside split, it looked race over, but Featherweight kicked back strongly and was able to get the win. Back to a fast run 1000m I do like and he’ll take beating.

9 Astrape (Bet Now: $5.50) is a daughter of Snitzel for Dan Morton that resumes. This girl had a two run prep in the early part of the Summer to start her career and placed on both occasions, including a debut Stakes effort when a close up second to Heavenly Waters. Closed off well in a recent trial, should do no work from the gate and be strong at the end.

3 Ultimate Command (Bet Now: $8.50) gets the blinkers back on, and comes back a fair back in grade/depth after racing in the Karrakatta where she was wide with cover and failed to come, but that was a bridge too far for her. Looks much better suited at this level and Blinkers go back on to sharpen her up.

Back up to 1400m, I’m pretty keen on 2 Watch Me Dance (Bet Now: $3.30). Hasn’t really done much wrong in three runs back from a spell, the latest coming over 1200m in the Marjorie Charleson two weeks ago when a strong third to quality mare Clairvoyance after getting a suck run in transit. Now back up to 1400m, I think she’s clearly the one to beat.

3 Tycoon Storm (Bet Now: $1.90) has done little wrong this time in, winning 2/2, both coming at this track/distance. Had the dream sit behind the speed three weeks back before getting the split, dashing through and holding on to beat Watch Me Dance. Actually meets that horse better off at the weights here despite beating it home, so she’s a key threat.

4 Zephyr Queen (Bet Now: $15.00) is a daughter of Universal Ruler for Jim Taylor that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since July 18 last year at Belmont when ending the prep on a high with an all the way triumph, albeit in a weak 0MW race. Trials leading in have been good and she is a two time first up winner.

I think 9 Stellar Vista (Bet Now: $4.40) is pretty smart and confident she can get back into the winners list. I’m not sure what Parnham was thinking on this girl last Wednesday. Just got a mile out of her ground and left the filly with far too much to do. Did a remarkable job to get as close as she did. If she’s within range on the turn, I think she beats this lot.

2 Kaptain Kaos (Bet Now: $2.60) has done little wrong in three runs back from a spell, winning each time. All three runs/wins have come at 1200m, the latest two being here, and what has impressed me is how versatile he has been re racing pattern. Can settle handy, can be ridden quiet. Michael Grantham has done a fab job with him and no reason why he can’t win again.

Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 1 Kallaroo (Bet Now: $11.00). Quality filly for Dan Morton that resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago. Just found them a bit sharp over the shorter trip but liked the way she closed her race off, looking like a filly that wants further, which is what she gets here. Hard to beat.

Tricky race but leaning towards 3 City Circle (Bet Now: $6.00) for the Parnham camp. Thought it was a lovely ride from Parnham that saw her win over 1100m here two weeks ago, admittedly in a much weaker race than what she faces here, but once again, maps to do no work in the run and will be strong at the end.

7 Panzdown (Bet Now: $2.60) is the most progressive of this lot. Three year old for Simon Miller that resumed at Bunbury over 1100m where he had a suck run behind the speed before getting the inside split and showing really good change up speed to put them away. Think he can measure up against this lot.

Not sure what the thought process is with 5 Dark Mission (Bet Now: $13.00), whether this is a prep for something in a few weeks? Seems odd bringing her back to 1000m from 1400m within two weeks but, who am I to judge Adam Durrant and his thought process. Her best is good enough and she should be strong late.

Back up in trip, good draw, in the corner of 10 Cockyjoy (Bet Now: $5.50). She ran in the Marjorie Charleson two weeks ago and while she was outclassed, I didn’t mind the way she finished her race off behind Clairvoyance. If she can use the inside gate to advantage, I think she’ll only run well.

A massive tick for 1 Not To Be Mist (Bet Now: $4.50) is the jockey change and upgrade, with Pike back aboard. This horse has won six and placed in a further five. Pike has ridden this horse for five wins and three placings, so he knows the horse and this is the first time he jumps on this prep. Definite winning chance.

11 Magic Will Reign (Bet Now: $21.00) is a talented animal for Adam Durrant that resumes. He made a name for himself this horse during the Kalgoorlie Carnival where he won several races for Peter Fernie. He’s now with Durrant, and I dare say will have eyes on Kalgoorlie again, so keen to see how he goes.

I’ll take a chance with 1 Come Play With Me (Bet Now: $10.00), who resumes for Adam Durrant. Had a two run Spring prep during the Kalgoorlie Carnival. Was good late in the Coolgardie before going to the Kalgoorlie Cup and was eased down late, clearly something amiss. Trials leading in suggest there is intent to run well fresh, and we know he has class.

2 Trap For Fools (Bet Now: $3.80) is clearly the class runner of the field and that will carry him a long way here. Heavily supported last time out in the Pinjarra Cup. Looked to get a comfortable lead and was there to put the race to bed on the turn. Just couldn’t quite finish it off and had to settle for third. Blinkers back on to sharpen him up, should land on speed and prove hard to run down.

10 Mosseratti (Bet Now: $27.00) lacks the class of some of these, but is racing well and could sneak a first four spot at big odds. Ran over this track/distance three weeks ago and was a real eye catcher late when third to Black Shadow. That form is clearly inferior to others engaged here, but he was only second up, so should be room for improvement.

4 Tinsnip (Bet Now: $2.70) in the get out. Durrant/Pike combine with this four year old, who steps back up in trip after coming back to 1400m from 1500m two weeks ago here. He sat behind the speed and battled on pretty well behind Billy Ain’t Silly. Pike on, soft draw, up in trip, he’ll do me in a tricky race.

5 Notorious One (Bet Now: $8.00) is a progressive animal for the Gangemi team but it just seems like he doesn’t know how to properly put them away. He looked like he would win quite comfortably in that race mentioned above but had a struggle and only got the better of them late. He can win, but his $3.30 SP last time, I would want closer to $5 before diving in.

Fitter and up in trip should suit 3 Gunnago (Bet Now: $18.00). He resumed over 1500m here three weeks ago. He had a suck run nearer the inside and battled on pretty well without threatening behind Majinika. Has a good second up record, fitter…might be waiting for Belmont, but is capable.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 2 Watch Me Dance

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 10 Cockyjoy

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 1 Come Play With Me

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 6, 7

Leg Two: 1, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 10

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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