The Autumn Carnival in Sydney heats right up this Saturday at Rosehill with a brilliant program, headlined by a crack field taking their place in the Hobartville Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:45) TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1100m
2 Camillo (Bet Now: $5.50) is the most interesting runner on the program. Very talented son of Shocking first up for the David Kelly team who are looking to get this horse ready for the Grafton qualifier of the country Championships. Showed really good promise last prep winning both races at Grafton and doing it superbly on speed in fast time. Certainly got the talent to beat these.
1 She Knows (Bet Now: $4.00) a definite threat. Danny Williams trains this filly, who did a good job for the stable in the Spring, contesting three Highway races. Narrow second first up behind Larlabrook before winning at Randwick. She then went to Rosehill and was a touch flat behind the talented Equal Balance. No trials, but stable is white hot with their Highway runners at the moment.
3 Golden Legacy (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Mark Mason trained gelding who defied a betting drift to bolt up fresh over 1000m at Tamworth, sitting off speed before getting clear air and dashing away. Probably needs to improve somewhat on the clock to beat these, but he does have a nice little record and stable should be respected when they come to town.
Race 2. (13:25) #slipperstyle Handicap 1500m
6 Pelethronius (Bet Now: $7.00) could be the knockout horse. David Pfieffer trained this bloke, who ran over this track/distance three weeks ago and for mine was ridden upside down when on speed. He is a horse best suited when ridden with cover and having last say. If that eventuates here, I think he’ll take some beating against this lot.
3 Cellarman (Bet Now: $3.50) is a Chris Waller trained galloper that is racing really well at the moment. He is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where I thought she was given a sweet ride from Blake Shinn, tucking in behind the speed before getting clear air and finishing best. His turn of foot is the key. If he is cuddled and saved, he can use that, which is very effective.
2 Alward (Bet Now: $13.00) is the watch horse for mine. Talented middle distance type that resumes for the Chris Waller yard after a pretty solid Spring prep, which ended with a game fourth in the Lexus behind Cismontane. Not sure what his ideal trip is, but we know he has class/quality. Two trials leading in have been quite good.
Race 3. (14:00) TAB Silver Slipper Stakes 1100m
4 Sunlight (Bet Now: $2.60) does look the obvious play but no good thing. She is back for the Slipper prep after completely dominating during her Queensland campaign, highlighted by her dominant win in the Magic Millions under a sweet ride from Luke Currie. She was devastating first up last prep, so fresh here no concern for me. Have to side with the filly with the runs on the board.
Terrified of 7 Estijaab (Bet Now: $2.40). She looks to have that real top class look about her. Debuted five weeks back over 1000m at Randwick and it was brilliant sustained speed that was just so evident to see, the sign of a really good youngster. Trialled up like a star last week at Warwick Farm, winning that in brilliant fashion. She’ll give this an almighty shake.
He’s having his first start and is the despised outsider but I think to add value to the first four, definitely include 3 Knieval (Bet Now: $41.00). Greg Hickman trains this colt, who is on debut, which isn’t easy against a crack bunch of youngsters like this lot are,ut gee he trialled up enormous last week at Warwick Farm. Doubt he wins, but an exotic contender.
Race 4. (14:35) Spark Of Life Handicap 1100m
4 Trekking (Bet Now: $4.00) is the big query. This time last year I was all over him to win the Golden Slipper but he didn’t live up to those expectations, and ever since he didn’t really put in 100%. He’s been gelded and looks to have returned a different horse. loved the way he attacked the line in the Randwick trial last Monday. If the real Trekking turns up, he wins.
I think from the gate, 6 Marsupial (Bet Now: $4.80) can only run well. Godolphin gelding that resumes after a pretty frustrating Spring prep where he loomed to win on several occasions but didn’t go on with it. Thought he trialled up nicely at Randwick last week and from the draw, he should get the run of the race.
11 Za Zi Ba (Bet Now: $11.00) is a well bred filly for Brad Widdup who resumed in the Inglis Sprint behind She Will Reign and yes, she was clearly outclassed, but I thought she stuck to the task really well in defeat. No horse of that class here, she draws a soft gate, has the run under the belt and her racing pattern will suit the 1100m starting point here.
Race 5. (15:10) Vinery Stud Millie Fox Stakes 1300m
Not well in at the weights, but I think each way, a 1×3 play, I’ll be backing 9 Girl Sunday (Bet Now: $13.00). Talented mare who resumes for Gerald Ryan off a pretty mixed Spring prep, which ended with a down the track effort in the Tibbie behind Zanbagh. She does tend to save her best for when she is produced fresh and her recent trial here was outstanding, bolting up in fast time.
Not sure how strong the Breeders Classic was, but the win of 4 Prompt Response (Bet Now: $3.30) was dominant and I’ll be surprised if anything from that race turns the table. Had the right run but she pounced when required and safely held her rivals at bay. Drawn the inside here, she can only improve off that and run well.
8 Insensata (Bet Now: $9.00) is another that probably isn’t well in at the weights but she has had the two runs back from a break and has been quite good each time. Resumed with a close up third at Randwick behind subsequent Triscay winner Faraway Town before racing at this track/distance and placing behind boom horse Don’t Give A Damn. Great record here and she’ll be flashing late.
Race 6. (15:45) Parramatta Advertiser Cup 1900m
I think each way, possibly 1×3, you can back 7 Liapari (Bet Now: $16.00). He is three weeks between runs for Chris Waller since racing over 1500m here where they really set it up for those on speed due to the slow tempo but he toughed it out and his late splits were quite good. Tick over trial on Monday was good and up to 1900m looks ideal.
4 Singing (Bet Now: $2.90) hasn’t raced for near five weeks for Kris Lees since completing his Summer campaign with a dominant all the way win in the Gosford Cup under Glyn Schofield. The switch was flicked on when he went to Brisbaen and he is now a different horse. Is a good fresh horse, so the break between runs is no concern.
11 Lord KIngsley (Bet Now: $23.00) is a very interesting runner. Lauri Wray trains this gelding, who is first up at 1900m. Hasn’t raced since Boxing Day in the Summer Cup when down the track behind Montauk and perhaps racing like a tired horse. Been given a couple of 1200m trials to prepare for this. He does go well fresh and he has a turn of foot. A win wouldn’t surprise.
Race 7. (16:25) Chandon S Chic Easy Hobartville Stakes 1400m
This has the potential to be the race of the Autumn. For mine, I think that Eskimo Prince form is suspect so I’ll be going away from that and siding with 2 Trapeze Artist (Bet Now: $3.50). He could well be a special colt for the Gerald Ryan camp who was dominant in winning the Expressway Stakes over 1200m here first up, sitting on speed and bolting clear. That form held up well in the Apollo and last time he was at 1400m, he scored a win of pure dominance that was equal level of dominance to what Winx produces.
9 D’Argento (Bet Now: $5.00) has been very good to me throughout his career so I see no reason why he can’t run well. I really liked his win first up at Randwick a few weeks ago. He had to do a fair bit of chasing and given he was fresh, you’d be forgiven for thinking he’d run out of condition late but he kept finding and surged hard to win. Think he’ll omfortably measure up at the top level so I’m happy to include him.
Long Shot: If you are a trial perv, then 11 Luvaluva (Bet Now: $61.00) is the bet of the century. It’s hard to remember a horse who has trialled as well as her leading up to a resumption, and considering she is a filly best suited at 2000m+, that just adds more emphasis on how well she is going. I think the VRC Oaks in the Spring was too soon for her. The ATC Oaks and whatever she contests this Autumn…it’s perfect for her. Huge watch here.
Race 8. (17:05) Schweppes Handicap (95) 1100m
I think the safe play is 10 Fickle Folly (Bet Now: $5.00). She is a ripper for the Sue Grills team. Hardly runs a bad race and is always thereabouts. They landed some nice bets with her a fortnight back over the short course at Warwick Farm and it was aided by an absolute gem of a ride from Corey Brown. Had the horse parked off a hot speed, peeled out, and from there it was relatively painless. Likes racing at Rosehill, handles all conditions and can do work in the run.
Very interesting that 8 New Universe (Bet Now: $7.00) comes back in trip. They tried him out as a 1400m-miler but it just didn’t work out so he is back to the sprinting caper. Thought he trialled up really nicely last week at Warwick Farm and his carer best efforts have come when sprinting hard fresh. Look for him to be charging late.
4 My Favourite (Bet Now: $9.50) should do no work from the gate and is a knockout chance at odds. He resumed behind Fickle Folly at Warwick Farm and looked to travel sweetly but just ran out off puff late. That should bring him right on for this, and I think he could get the box seat sit, a dangerous spot for sure.
Race 9. (17:45) Triple M Marquee Handicap (89) 1350m
Going to side with 6 Dagny (Bet Now: $5.00) in the get out. Darci Brahma mare first up for the Chris Waller team after a pretty solid Spring prep, which ended with a win over 1800m here. Love horses that end a prep on a winning note, and her recent trial at Randwick was very good. Noted first up performer and maps super just off the pace.
James Cummings has done a really good job with 7 Bratislava (Bet Now: $3.80), placing it to win and perform well. This bloke is four weeks between runs since racing over the 1300m here where I thought Tye Angland gave the horse an absolute peach and he got the reward despite getting the staggers late. Given a quiet trial last week to tune up. Just has to stretch it out to 1350m now.
10 Up ‘N’ Rolling (Bet Now: $6.50) is a progressive stayer that resumes for the Chris Waller yard. He had a pretty solid Spring prep, but in the end, he let the punters down badly on several occasions. He’s a hard one to assess. Comes here off the back of just one soft 1000m trial, but he does go well fresh and has a touch of quality.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Trapeze Artist
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Camillo
VALUE: Race Five Number 9 Girl Sunday
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 7, 11
Leg Two: 2
Leg Three: 4, 8, 10, 13
Leg Four: 6, 7, 10, 11
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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