Racing returns to Flemington this Saturday, with the feature race being the $120,000 Listed Straight Six (1200m), where Lumosty could book her ticket to Brisbane with a win here. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (11:45) : Victorian Carbine Club Plate 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Kryptonian (Best Odds: $2.80) made his debut in the VOBIS Gold Ingot at Caulfield and worked home strongly when running fifth, then went back in grade to Ballarat in a maiden and charged home from the back to win impressively. He has the race fitness on his side and is trained on the track, which is an advantage.
Big Danger: Freedoms (Best Odds: $6.00) made his debut during the Warrnambool Carnival and was unwanted in betting, and the drift in the market looked ride when he was out the back and struggling, but he picked up late and was very strong when finishing third. He is bred to be a wet tracker, so the firmer surface here and class increase is the query, but there is a bit to like about him.
Roughie: Sun Thunder (Best Odds: $34.00) is trained by the Ellerton/Zahra stable who debuted at Echuca in a pretty strong race and stuck on okay behind an impressive winner in the shape of Alkaashef from the Hayes/Dabernig yard. Trained on the track, up to 1400m suits and senior rider is aboard now.
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Race Two (12:15) : Trevor Clarke Handicap 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: She keeps getting underrated, but Face Forward (Best Odds: $3.30) just keeps getting the job done. She swooped home from near last to win over 1000m here, then sat on speed over 1200m here and proved too good for a similar field she faces here. Looks well suited at the weights and is just a filly that is low flying.
Big Danger: Northroza (Best Odds: $4.40) is the intriguing runner here. She resumes for Mick Price after a very promising first prep, which saw her win twice impressively, with the second coming at Sandown in a hot form race. Recent trial was slick and she looks ready to go fresh.
Roughie: Bella Capri (Best Odds: $19.00) finished fourth to Face Forward in the 1200m race where she got back to near last in the run before peeling out and working home strongly to finish fourth, beaten two lengths. No reason why she can’t perform well again.
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Race Three (12:50) : Henry Bolte Handicap 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Duibio (Best Odds: $3.80) came down the outside fence to win over 1400m here two back in a strong race, then was a warm hot pot in the Adelaide Guineas (1600m) when given a strange ride by Steve Arnold, sitting on the speed. He eventually tired late to run fifth. He is much better ridden with a sit, so I think that should eventuate here, and if it does, he will prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Warrior King (Best Odds: $4.60) is unbeaten in two career runs for Robert Smerdon, starting off with a strong win against the bias at Geelong, then went to the Warrnambool Carnival and defied a betting drift to savage the line and get the job done. Looks suited by the rise to the mile and has plenty of upside.
Roughie: Quedoutes (Best Odds: $31.00) was a very strong winner in a maiden at Ballarat before contesting the Adelaide Guineas and working home strongly to finish sixth to Magic Boy, beaten just under five lengths. Meets that horse 6.5kg better at the weights here, and has alot more upside. Definite contender.
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Race Four (13:25) : Pancare Handicap (78) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Arctic Song (Best Odds: $10.00) on top for me here in a tricky race. He resumed at Sandown and stuck on well when second to Charmed Harmony before going the VOBIS Gold Sprint (1200m) and sticking on well when wide no cover to finish midfield behind in form galloper Red Bomber and multiple Group l winner Trust In A Gust. This looks more to his liking, especially on his home track, so I’m happy to be in his corner here.
Big Danger: Wild Fire (Best Odds: $6.50) finished eighth in that Charmed Harmony race and was completely luckless before going to the VOBIS Gold Bullion on Pakenham Cup Day and storming home from the back to win. He is suited on big tracks, so this looks ideal for him, and Nolen is in good form from a winning day out at Mornington on Wednesday.
Roughie: Relentless (Best Odds: $31.00) is a talented galloper that resumes here for Geelong trainer Anthony Alder. He ran pretty well during the Summer, winning at Sandown before a couple of strong fifth placings at the Valley. First up last time in he ran fourth to Reldas, and at the time that was hot form, so I am tipping this bloke to run a cheeky race.
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Race Five (14:05) : Banjo Paterson Series Heat 1 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Despite the weight rise, it’s hard to go against Kenjorwood (Best Odds: $2.20) here. He was smashed in betting last time out over 1800m here, and thanks to a lovely ride from Regan Bayliss, the galloper proved much too good for his rivals, spanking them by five lengths. He will only be suited by the rise to 2000m, draws well and generally saves his best for Flemington.
Big Danger: I’m a bit surprised to see $9 offered for Trade Commissioner (Best Odds: $9.00) here. He should have won but just couldn’t get a decent crack at them in the straight. He has found form now and the last time he raced here, he ran behind subsequent Melbourne Cup place getter in Who Shot Thebarman. Looks a definite threat and deserves to be much shorter in betting.
Roughie: Magicool (Best Odds: $13.00) is the interesting runner here for Kav. He comes back home after contesting the SA Derby and sticking on strongly to run fourth to star filly Delicacy. His form at this distance range is very good, on the minimum and is rock hard fit. A chance.
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Race Six (14:45) : The Straight Six 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Really hard here to drop off Lumosty (Best Odds: $1.75). Her win over 1100m here first up was just simply devastating, sitting off the speed before shoving into the clear and winning with absolute ease, and that is exactly what she did second up last time in, albeit in a maiden race, but she ran many lengths quicker than the older horses over the same distance on the day. Looks the winner.
Big Danger: Aeronauitcal (Best Odds: $10.00) is a handy Sydney galloper for Lionel Cohen who hasn’t raced since the Victoria Handicap (1400m), but he looked pretty sharp in winning a Werribee jump out, sitting off the speed before peeling wide on the turn and letting down strongly under the urgings of Ollie to win the jump out. Doubt he can win, but he saves his best for Flemington and isn’t badly weighted.
Roughie: Sino Eagle (Best Odds: 13.00) has an excellent record down the Flemington straight and will welcome the return to it after failing last time out at Caulfield when sixth to Miss Promiscuity after being an alarming drifter in betting. Loves the 1200m here and draws well, as well as getting down in the weights.
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Race Seven (15:25) : Andrew Ramsden Stakes 3200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Absolutely no idea what to do here. The consistent galloper is Crafty Cruiser (Best Odds: $8.50), so he goes on top in a very even race. He sat off the speed and worked home strongly over 2800m here when just failing to pick up Sonntag, but I think the result could have been reversed had a senior rider been aboard Crafty Cruiser. Now that eventuates, he looks suited up to 3200m…looks the one.
Big Danger: Sonntag (Best Odds: $8.00) had done bugger all since winning the Queensland Derby (2400m), but he dropped significantly in grade and got the job done narrowly over Crafty Cruiser, with Mick Dee lifting the Group l winner over the line. Two miles should be no issue because he was strong last time out and this is a very thin race.
Roughie: Sabor A Triunpho (Best Odds: $8.50) took an absolute eternity to wind up behind Sonntag, and despite never looking likely, the mare did pick up late and she was strong through the line. She’s racing as if the two miles will suit and the stable is just flying at the moment.
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Race Eight (16:05) : VRC-CRV Winter Championship Heat 1 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going to stick solid with Mr Utopia (Best Odds: $7.50). He sprouted wings to win first up for the new stable over 1200m here before going to the Wangoom at the Bool and working home well from an impossible position behind Royal Island. Up to 1400m looks ideal, Zahra sticks and despite drawing wide he should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Gracious Prospect (Best Odds: $10.00) returns to Flemington after three strong efforts at Caulfield, with the latest effort resulting in a second to Red Bomber, who has the inform galloper in recent times in Melbourne. He loves Flemington and his last two runs here have resulted in stakes placings behind Amorino. Hard to beat.
Roughie: Bippo No Bungus (Best Odds: $10.00) has been an absolute nightmare to follow for punters since coming over from Perth, but she has raced well without winning, the latest coming in the Queen of the South at Morohettville when seventh to Atlantis Dream. The bigger track here and back to 1400m should suit.
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Race Nine (16:40) : K.A. Morrison Handicap (90) 1700m: Form Guide
Back Me: Pyrrolic (Best Odds: $2.50) bounced back to winning form in emphatic fashion at Caulfield, sitting off the speed and pouncing quickly to win with a fair bit of ease. He hadn’t won for a while prior to that, so now that he has won, he could well go on with it. Looks the way to go in the opener.
Big Danger: Longeron (Best Odds: $6.50) is a very consistent galloper for Team Hawkes who is racing well, but just can’t quite crack it for a win. He ran over 1800m last time out here and ran strongly but was no match for tearaway winner Kenjorwood. No Kenjorwood now, but another inform Moody galloper is against him here now, so I am not sure if he can win, but he’ll definitely run well again, even from the draw.
Roughie: Siegestor (Best Odds: $6.50) ran last time out at Sale and worked home strongly from near last to run third to King’s Dance, beaten just over two lengths. He has a very good turn of foot on him with the right sit, and the last time he ran here he just failed in beating quality three year old Lucky Liberty. Up to 1700m is no issue and given he is on the limit, he should prove hard to beat.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 9 Lumosty
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 2 Kenjorwood
VALUE: Race Seven Number 3 Crafty Cruiser
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 9
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 8
Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6, 10, 13, 16, 17
Leg Four: 5, 6, 8, 12
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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