The South Australian racing carnival continues this Saturday with another strong blacktype filled card. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out three metres for the remainder.
Race One (12:58) : Rex Thompson’s 60th Birthday Handicap (90) 2020m:
Back Me: 2 Flying Casino (Best Odds: $6.50) was a very impressive winner two back at Oakbank before running over this track/distance and working home strongly when a close up second to River’s Lane. He will do no work from the inside gate and for mine, looks tremendous value at the $9 mark.
Big Danger: 4 Killarney Kid (Best Odds: $1.75) is loving life under Darren Weir and comes here off a 27 day freshen up after winning the Stawell Cup (2000m) in impressive fashion. Has been kept up to the mark with a handy trial over the sticks and will take some beating.
Roughie: 1 Survived (Best Odds: $4.00) is the best horse in the race but has really struggled to find his from his three year old days. Still, there was a bit of merit in his effort behind Nevis at Sandown. He will eat up the 2020m here and Craig Williams rides.
Race Two (13:33) : RSL Anzac Appeal Handicap 1050m:
Back Me: 1 Blue Tycoon (Best Odds: $2.70) resumes here for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. He debuted over this track/distance back in the Spring and ran well when second to Samara Dancer, who went on to win the Blue Diamond Prelude. He has since been gelded, jump outs have been pleasing and the stable is just flying at the moment.
Big Danger: 4 Hard Promise (Best Odds: $3.80) is a well bred first starter for Phillip Stokes who comes here off the back of a handy trial placing here last week. Williams booked, draws well and is bred to be a beauty.
Roughie: 5 Oak Door (Best Odds: $3.60) was a heavily backed fav on debut at Bendigo but he just took forever to get going, but once he did, he lengthened out nicely behind Throssell. Blinkers go immediately on now and looks a touch overs at $6.
Race Three (14:08) : UBET Adelaide’s Festival Of Racing Handicap (70) 1100m:
Back Me: 11 War Thunder (Best Odds: $8.00) has been given a 49 day freshen up since running a game third to Call Me Curtis over 1200m at this track, beaten 2.5L. Looked sharp in a recent trial, draws a soft gate and looms as a pretty safe way to go in a tough race.
Big Danger: 2 Herenoa (Best Odds: $3.80) is probably the best horse in the race who comes here after just one run last time in, resulting in a solid third to the Stakes performer gelding Tenere. Didn’t look too bad in a recent trial on the Parks track and he flies fresh.
Roughie: 8 Cash Is Coming (Best Odds: $16.00) ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and wasn’t too bad I thought when fifth to in form galloper Shaf considering she was back in the run and the pace wasn’t ideal. Draws a soft gate and at $16, she is worth an each-way ticket.
Race Four (14:43) : Camp Quality Handicap (80) 1200m:
Back Me: 9 Lady Andress (Best Odds: $8.50) has a mind of her own, but there is no denying she is talented. She ran during the Oakbank Carnival and had to settle for second to the very impressive winner Shaf, who won at his next start to frank the form. With better manners, she will take some beating.
Big Danger: 6 Rationality (Best Odds: $3.60) has been the best backed runner with Sportsbet for the weekend, but I think that was only due to the fact that her $12 opening price was just crazy. Trial leading in was very good, and despite drawing wide, she has to be a leading contender.
Roughie: 2 Our Harmony (Best Odds: $4.80) hasn’t raced for three weeks since racing over this distance at Mornington when running third to Mefnooda in what looked a handy race. She is a Stakes class mare who does look well placed here, especially with the claim for Jess Payne.
Race Five (15:23) : MAC Drink Driving? GROW UP Dequetteville Stakes 1050m:
Back Me: 8 Motown Lil (Best Odds: $8.50) was backed as if unbeatable when resuming at Sandown but was just simply no match for Ariaz, who ran well here in a Stakes race last Saturday to frank the form. Has since trialled at Cranbourne and went very well I thought, and the stable should always be respected when they travel.
Big Danger: 4 Areti (Best Odds: $9.00) was very impressive on debut at Moonee Valley before going to the Blue Diamond where she was wide no cover on speed and faded out of it behind Extreme Choice. She has been freshened up and looked sharp in an April 11 trial placing at Cranbourne. Stable are going well with their youngsters so I’ll respect her here first up.
Roughie: 3 Neapolitan (Best Odds: $11.00) was given a 12/10 to win on the Parks track five weeks back, saving ground near the inside and bursting through to win in very impressive fashion. Has been given a good freshen up and is winning form, so I’ll go with her in what looks a very good two year old race.
Race Six (16:03) : Hughes Chauffeured Limousines R N Irwin Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 9 Tuscan Sling (Best Odds: $1.90) just looks very well placed here. This quality mare for Darren Weir hasn’t raced since running a game second to Azkadellia on February 27 at Caulfield. That mare is a star and we know how good she is, so the form just reads so well and this mare is unbeaten in three first up runs.
Big Danger: 10 Runway Star (Best Odds: $6.00) has been given a slight freshen up since showing a sharp turn of foot to win the Matrice (1200m) on Adelaide Cup Day here. Now with Phillip Stokes and hasn’t trialled publicly, so I’d closely watch the market on her and see if there is a push.
Roughie: 2 Nostradamus (Best Odds: $12.00) had his first run for Phillip Stokes in the Manihi (1100m) here and wasn’t far off them when sixth to Daytona Grey, beaten 2.5L in a pleasing first up effort. Should take good benefit from that and though his second up record is terrible, he is a quality horse.
Race Seven (16:43) : Schweppervescence Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: I am going for some value in the shape of 18 Dashebo (Best Odds: $51.00). She should have bolted up on the Parks track two back before going to Gawler last Wednesday where she was well backed and looked home but was bloused late by Almahstique. Looks a ready made Oaks contender and with a more cold ride, she’ll eat up the 1800m comfortably.
Big Danger: 3 Silent Sedition (Best Odds: $4.20) won the Bendigo Guinea (1400m) impressively two back before running over the mile at Sandown and ran well but was no match for Bengal Cat, who won impressively last weekend to frank the form. Not sure she is a genuine 1800m filly, but she just might have the class and brilliance to overcome it.
Roughie: 13 Alittle Loose (Best Odds: $15.00) represents good value in the race. She comes here off the back off an unplaced run in the Adrian Knox (2000m) where she just didn’t look happy on the puggy track. Back on a firmer surface here, and the stable knows when to travel them.
Race Eight (17:23) : Projection Graphics Redelva Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: At the weights, you have to go with 2 Don’t Doubt Mamma (Best Odds: $3.80). This classy filly for Tony McEvoy had two runs during the Flemington Carnival, winning the Vanity first up before running a game second to subsequent Group l performer Badawiya in the Kewney. Back to 1100m is some slight query, but her record is so good and just looks thrown in at the weights.
Big Danger: 1 Miss Gunpowder (Best Odds: $4.40) was smashed in betting when resuming here and she was very good in defeat when running a close up second to Viddora. She has a stack of class and should relish the added fitness under the belt, and though not well weighted, she should take a stack of beating.
Roughie: The race falls away outside this pair, but for value, include 6 Americna Star (Best Odds: $71.00). He resumed over 1050m here a fortnight back and was terrible behind Viddora, but a recent trial was very impressive and his form from the first prep was very good.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 2 Don't Doubt Mamma
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 9 Tuscan Sling
VALUE: Race Seven Number 18 Dashebo
Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8
Leg Two: 9, 10
Leg Three: 3, 5, 9, 13, 16, 18
Leg Four: 1, 2
$50 Investment= 29.76% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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