The Perth Summer Carnival continues on Wednesday at Ascot with an eight race card, where the feature race is the $100,000 Listed A.T.A. Stakes (2200m), the final lead up to the Perth Cup (2400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (15:55) : Perth Cup At Ascot- January 2 Plate 1100m:
Back Me: Next Generation (Best Odds: $7.00) debuted over this track/distance a tick under two weeks back and fought on well when second to impressive type Swedish Memories. Much easier here, draws well and should take some beating.
Big Danger: Speeding Comet (Best Odds: $2.00) debuts here off the back of a seven length trial win at Belmont recently, and ran pretty good time in comparison to other trials that morning. Watch for market moves with her.
Roughie: Savoy Queen (Best Odds: $21.00) debuted behind Swedish Memories in the race mentioned above, and she just looked like she needed the experience, racing a touch greenly and not really knowing what to do. Should be better off from that and the trial prior was impressive.
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Race Two (16:35) : Perth Racing Instagram Plate 1800m:
Back Me: Keen on Juicing Carrots (Best Odds: $14.00). He resumed over 1400m at Bunbury a couple of weeks back and was given a peach from Pike to get the job done. Steps up to 1800m second up, which isn’t easy, but go back to his debut run, he ran second to Kia Ora Koutou, who is potentially the best three year old stayer in Australia.
Big Danger: Royal Supreme (Best Odds: $10.00) sprouted wings from nowhere to win his maiden at Bunbury over 1400m, with Pike producing another masterclass to get the son of Domesday home. He remains on ahead of Juicing Carrots, which is a good lead IMO.
Roughie: Saxaphonist (Best Odds: $4.80) attempted to lead all the way over this track/distance in the Aquanita, and while he kicked on strongly, he couldn’t quite finish it off and had to settle for third. Easier here, and if similar tactics are adopted here, he could take some running down.
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Race Three (17:15) : Mash’D N Kutcher At Perth Cup Handicap (68) 1600m:
Back Me: Fizza Ma Wizza (Best Odds: $6.00) ran over 1400m here last time out and worked home hard late when running third to Dendee, beaten 1.5L. Steps up to the mile, which should suit, gate one and gets the claim for in form apprentice Jake Casey.
Big Danger: Crystal Gardens (Best Odds: $5.00) ran over 1500m here last start and was a touch disappointing I thought when running sixth to Lunar Eclipse, beaten three lengths. Massive drop in depth here and is beautifully placed after the claim.
Roughie: Frangipani Monster (Best Odds: $3.80) resumed over this distance at Pinjarra and was ridden to perfection by Pike to get the job done, which was a super effort because it’s not easy to win over that distance. Should have upside left and Pike remains on.
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Race Four (17:55) : Stafford Brothers At Perth Cup Handicap (72) 1200m:
Back Me: Illusion Of Light (Best Odds: $12.00) ran over this track/distance a couple of weeks back and worked home with real purpose late when running a close up fourth to Wicked Hunter. Draws gate one, so she shouldn’t be as far back. Looks a great bet.
Big Danger: Main Instigator (Best Odds: $3.30) attempted to lead all the way in that race mentioned above, and he kicked on strongly, but was bloused late in the race. Senior rider, and the best, in Pike takes over, should carve over and lead and take some running down.
Roughie: Terror Force (Best Odds: $13.00) has been given a six week freshen up since running a close up fourth to Paddy’s Flat after getting a long way back in the run. He should get back again here, but he races well fresh and if the speed is on, he’ll charge late.
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Race Five (18:35) : Perth Racing Young Membership Plate 1100m:
Back Me: Scales Of Justice (Best Odds: $1.60) looks close to a good thing here. Hasn’t raced since October 7 at Belmont when running a half length second to Perfect Reflection, the Kingston Town winner. Draws well, Harvey on, runs well fresh…just wins I think.
Big Danger: Rhi’s Rocket toughed it out very strongly to win over 1000m here last time out, leading most of the way to win comfortably despite wanting to lay out a touch under pressure. Drawn terribly here, so he will have to do some work to lead, but if he can, he’ll be hard to beat.
Roughie: The month freshen up should suit Glitterbell (Best Odds: $51.00), who last raced over 1400m here when fourth to Fremond, which is a pretty good form reference for a race of this quality. Draws to get a nice sit off the speed and will be strong late.
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Race Six (19:10) : Perth Racing- Sponsor A Race Handicap (66+) 1000m:
Back Me: Looks a good race for Express Dancer (Best Odds: $2.60). Just forget he went around behind Wicked Hunter last time out given he got badly blocked at a crucial stage and really should have won. Gate one, Pike on…similar to Scales Of Justice, just wins here.
Big Danger: Travellin’ (Best Odds: $15.00) resumes here for Jim Taylor after a pretty solid Winter prep, which yielded a couple of wins over the Belmont 1000m. Recent trial behind Detection was pleasing and he does run nicely when produced fresh.
Roughie: Tre Amici (Best Odds: $21.00) ran over this track/distance last Wednesday and wasn’t far off when fourth to Volkoff, beaten a length after doing some work outside the speed. Senior rider is back on and the last that happened, this horse was three lengths off Silverstream.
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Race Seven (19:45) : A.T.A Stakes 2200m:
Back Me: Grant Williams will win the race with either Respondent (Best Odds: $7.50) or Neverland. The best horse is Neverland, but the best stayer is Respondent, and he has more upside, so I’ll lean towards Respondent. He stuck to the task very well when fourth to Waterman’s Bay in the Scahill Stakes (1400m). That was just under a month break, and quickly steps up to 2200m, which is a difficult task, but he is a brilliant stayer who should take some beating.
Big Danger: Neverland (Best Odds: $1.90) toughed it out very strongly last time out in the Kingston Town Classic (1800m) when fourth to stablemate Perfect Reflection, beaten five lengths. Query on him running 2200m, but in terms of natural brilliance, he has lengths on these.
Roughie: Next best is probably Rebelson (Best Odds: $21.00), who attempted to lead all the way in the Towton Cup (2200m) but couldn’t sprint when required and had to settle for third. The firmer track will help him here and he can definitely improve.
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Race Eight (20:25) : Merry Christmas From Perth Racing Handicap (72) 1400m:
Back Me: Hopetoun (Best Odds: $5.00) ran at Bunbury last time out and just missed out on winning again, with the bob of the head on the post not going his way. His first up win here was super, so he looks to have come back in excellent order.
Big Danger: Card Knight ran over this distance at Bunbury last time out where he sat on speed and proved well too good for his rivals, winning quite comfortably and spreading the field out, which is always a good sign. Much harder here, but there is a bit to like about him.
Roughie: Zero To Sixty (Best Odds: $21.00) is a veteran for Neville Parnham who has come this preparation in pretty good order. His last start came over this track/distance when a two length fifth to Flying Image. Draws well here and is well weighted after the claim.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 11 Express Dancer
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 6 Scales Of Justice
VALUE: Race Eight Number 13 Zero To Sixty
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 6
Leg Two: 11
Leg Three: 1, 10
Leg Four: 2, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 15
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful.
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