The two day Cox Plate Carnival kicks off on Friday night with a cracking program, highlighted of course by the $1 Million Group l William Hill Manikato Stakes (1200m), where Chautauqua is all the rage. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
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Race One (18:45) : LF Sign Group Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: Petite’s Reward (Best Odds: $5.50) was a drifter in betting when resuming over this distance at Bendigo a couple of weeks back but she led all the way for quite an impressive win in what was a pleasing return to the track. She ran well here on debut back in March and despite carrying topweight, she should prove hard to run down.
Big Danger: Viceroy (Best Odds: $2.60) proved far too good for his rivals when winning first up on Balaklava Cup Day. He has since raced twice at Pakenham. The first run resulted in a disappointing seventh before bouncing back with a dominant win. He looks ready to tackle city grade now and this is a very winnable race for mine.
Roughie: Miss Idyllic (Best Odds: $4.80) bolted up when resuming on the Geelong Synthetic before running sixth to Petits Filous at Flemington. She then went to Caulfield and was just fair when sixth to Invincible Heart. Easier here, back to 1000m suits and she loves racing at the Valley.
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Race Two (19:15) : Subzero Greys Challenge Heat 2 (90) 1500m:
Back Me: Secret Toy Bizness (Best Odds: $4.60) pretty much struggles away from this series, where she dominated last year. Her two runs this time in were just okay, but she went into the first heat of this series at Caulfield and she was just dominant from the back in a slowly run race. Normal luck here and I think she wins again.
Big Danger: Slate On Edge (Best Odds: $4.80) could not have been ridden any better by Dwayne Dunn in that race mentioned above and did everything bar throw it over the line. Does get a 2kg weight pull on the winner here, so there is a strong chance he can turn the tables, especially if he gets a cheap sectional here, and we have seen lately that leaders at the Valley have proven hard to get past.
Roughie: Exodus (Best Odds: $14.00) is now under the care of Dan O’Sullivan after formerly being with Phillip Stokes. The son of Bernadini ran in that Caulfield race and just plugged to the line behind Secret Toy Bizness. He loves racing at this distance, and I think a bit of cushion in the track will really suit him. I think he is a knockout chance.
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Race Three (19:45) : City Jeep Handicap 2040m:
Back Me: Akzar (Best Odds: $4.60) for me in a thin race. He ran in the Cranbourne Cup and was one of only a couple of make up ground in a race dominated by the leader and eventual winner Digitalism. He is starting to find his best form, Rawiller back on, three time winner at the track, and given his record, he looks beautifully weighted.
Big Danger: Sysmo (Best Odds: $9.00) is on the quick back up after racing in the Seymour Cup on Sunday where he was a little bit flat I thought when racing behind the impressive on speed winner Turn Me Loose. I like the fact he is on the quick back up, he has upside and the stable is in form.
Roughie: If there is on speed bias again at this track, then a horse like Lord Durante (Best Odds: $5.00) comes into the mix. He hasn’t raced since late September when finishing worse than midfield in the Harry White Classic behind Black Tomahawk. He races quite well at the Valley and will be up on speed provided he jumps away cleanly.
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Race Four (20:15) : Johnnie Walker Country Cup 1600m:
Back Me: Lucky Paddy (Best Odds: $3.40) was a dominant winner two back at Pakenham before heading to Cranbourne during their Carnival and loomed to win over the mile but just couldn’t quite finish it off when third to General James, who charged home from the back out wide. With that tough run under the belt now, he should be suited here, and given the wide barrier, I suspect he will get back and be saved for the straight, which is when he is at his best.
Big Danger: Baron Archer (Best Odds: $7.50) ran over this distance at Caulfield last start and battled away ok I thought behind He Or She. That track was rock hard firm, so with the cushion in the track now, he should improve and he will be hard to hold out.
Roughie: Leveraction (Best Odds: $7.00) is an on speed runner who stuck to the task pretty gamely last start in the Deniliquin Cup when third to Defenceman. He always runs a cheeky race at this track, and with Newitt on board, he’ll ping the horse to the front and give them something to chase.
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Race Five (20:45) : Jeep 55 Second Challenge Heat 3 (84) 955m:
Back Me: Berlutti (Best Odds: $6.00) copped a bit of heat on speed when resuming at Cranbourne a couple of weeks back, but Newitt kicked him clear in the straight and the horse clung on to beat Prince Rahy, who franked the form by winning impressively last Friday night. His two runs at the Valley have been at 1200m, both times running second to Nicoscene, so no qualms here for mine.
Big Danger: Grane (Best Odds: $7.50) closed off very well when resuming at Seymour to run a close up fourth before racing in a heat of this series a few weeks back and again storming home to finish second to Reldas. He has a booming finish on him, and from gate three, he won’t be far away.
Roughie: Emerenta (Best Odds: $13.00) resumes here for Alicia Macpherson who hasn’t raced since early August behind Stakes winner Double Dee. She can run well fresh, she draws well, has raced well here in the past and Yendall is on, so she should be around the mark somewhere.
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Race Six (21:15) : Bertocchi Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Keen here on Tudor (Best Odds: $8.50). He trialled really well on a couple of occasions prior to resuming in the Apache Cat on Cranbourne Cup Day, and if you backed him, it was just a nightmare to watch. He was bolting behind the leader and eventual winner, General Jackson, and he just could not get a clear crack at them at all and went to the line under a hold. He runs well here at the Valley and with normal luck, he will take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Cashed (Best Odds: $3.80) ran well in a heat of the 55 second challenge before going to Caulfield for the Schillaci where he ran an absolute blinder when a close second to Alpha Miss, who will go around as a knockout chance in the Manikato. Drops in class and drops in weight, so he really looks the one to beat on form.
Roughie: It Is Written (Best Odds: $5.00) is an absolute beauty who just loves racing at the Valley. He got held up also in the Apache Cat but he got clear and really savaged the line to run a close up third. His record at the 1200m here is fantastic, and given his record, he doesn’t look badly treated at the weights.
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Race Seven (21:45) : William Hill Manikato Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Despite the jockey change, you just have to keep coming back to Chautauqua (Best Odds: $2.30). He was outstanding when bolting up here in his resumption, beating home Flamberge, who has since won a Stakes race. Chautauqua then went to the Gilgai, and given the bad luck he had, he really had no right to win, but his brilliance got him home. Dwayne Dunn is off, but he loses nothing with Tommy Berry on given he steered the horse to his best career win, the T J Smith (1200m), during The Championships. With normal luck, he should be winning.
Big Danger: Buffering (Best Odds: $6.50) was simply outstanding in his return to the track when copping serious heat on speed in the Moir (1000m), then kicked strongly on the turn and then fended them all off for a memorable Group l win. I think if he can lead and get a cheap furlong, he will be a very serious threat to Chautauqua, but I am just not sure about the strength of the Moir form outside of him.
Roughie: Rebel Dane (Best Odds: $11.00) returned from a wind operation and produced a brilliant finish to win first up in the Shorts (1100m) before running a close up second to Terravista in the Premiere (1200m), beaten about a long neck. He was luckless, like so many, in this race last year, but doubt he is going much better this year. Definite threat for mine.
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Race Eight (22:15) : Jeep Handicap 2040m:
Back Me: Oriental Lady (Best Odds: $5.50) comes through the Pinker Pinker Plate (2080m) at Cranbourne where she got a mile back in the run before working home strongly late to run fourth to Long Face Grace. Does get a weight pull on the winner here and Oliver is in ripping form after dominating Geelong Cup Day.
Big Danger: Group l performer Imperial Lass (Best Odds: $4.20) resumed in a small field over the mile at Ballarat and she was given a beaut steer from Linda Meech and the mare duly saluted. Will relish the extra trip, fitter, draws well and Meech remains on.
Roughie: Spectacular Vision (Best Odds: $18.00) was very unlucky when resuming at Pakenham behind Godspiel before going to Caulfield and working home well from the back to finish just over five lengths away from Amarela. Extra tip will suit her perfectly and she is a knockout hope at odds.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 2 Chautauqua
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 4 Secret Toy Bizness
VALUE: Race Seven Number 4 Rebel Dane
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 7, 11, 12
Leg Two: 1, 7, 8, 9, 11
Leg Three: 2
Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 6, 9, 11
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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