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An eight race program has been set down for Belmont this Saturday, where the feature race is the Belmont Guineas (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

Race 1. (14:32) Crown Perth Plate 1000m

Back Me

1 Fire And Rain (Bet Now: $1.90) to jump, lead and win I’m hoping. Paul Jordan trains this youngster, who is first up here after a pretty good first prep where he won two of three. Two trial wins to prepare for his return have been outstanding and from the draw, he should hold up and prove tough to hold out over the 1000m.

Danger

2 Kiss The Breeze (Bet Now: $2.60) is a daughter of Star Witness that resumes for the Adam Durrant team. This girl won her first two career outings prior to racing in the WA Magic Millions where she was off the map but pulled up shin sore behind Valour Road. Resumes with no trials and draws wide, but clearly has class.

Long Shot

5 Braggadocios (Bet Now: $5.00) isn’t really a long shot, but the race only has three chances, and he’s third pick. On debut for the Lindsey Smith team and has had five trials since the beginning of January, with two trials leading in this prep, each time looking quite good. Not sure he wins, but he looks a nice type.

Race 2. (15:12) Heineken Handicap 1200m

Back Me

Happy to be with 4 Disruptive (Bet Now: $3.00). This gelding resumed down the straight at Pinjarra last Thursday where he drew the outside and held the lead and outside rail before Tayla Stone clicked him up and away he went for a dominant win. More depth here, but there is plenty to like about the way he goes about it.

Danger

2 Kentoo (Bet Now: $14.00) is a handy three year old for the Stephen Miller team who ran last Wednesday here where he sat on speed and fought quite hard when second to Moet De Vega. He is a horse who doesn’t win out of turn, but once he does find form, he generally holds it, so I’m giving him respect here.

Long Shot

I think 1 Arrum Boy (Bet Now: $34.00) could be a potential knockout. He is two weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here where he got too far back in the run and couldn’t come on at all behind Roganella, who’s a leading chance in the Belmont Guineas. I think that form, combined with the step back to 1200m, should help his cause.

Race 3. (15:52) Amelia Park Lodge Handicap (1MW) 1400m

Back Me

Happy to give 3 Alpha Sky (Bet Now: $2.90) another look despite now taking on the older horses. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago against his own age where he was wide with cover and looked to race like a tired horse to the eye behind Roganella. Giving him one more chance back in depth with Pike on.

Danger

6 Lorentinio (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Jim Taylor trained gelding who is working close to a win. He ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where he chased a hot speed, didn’t turn it up at all and showing great fight but had to settle for third to Sovereign Trade. He’s finding it hard to win but I reckon he isn’t far away.

Long Shot

13 Rare Selection (Bet Now: $61.00) is a talented son of Choisir that resumes for the Justin Warwick team. This bloke hasn’t raced for over two months since racing at Albany when placing over 1900m behind Gauged. Bit of gear change tinkering from the stable and though he hasn’t placed in eight fresh runs, I reckon there is intent to run well.

Race 4. (16:28) Tabtouch Handicap (72+) 1000m

Back Me

4 Fabergino (Bet Now: $1.40) looks a rising star and I think she should take care of this lot. Three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where she absolutely bolted in under Knuckey and smashed the clock despite barely being extended. Hardest test to date here, but gee she’s very likeable here.

Danger

1 Super Maxi (Bet Now: $4.60) is a former Team Hawkes galloper that had his first run for the Chris Gangemi team three weeks ago at this track/distance where he led all the way and was quite dominant in winning. The time was a length slower than Fabergino, so that’s the little query, but I think he runs well again.

Long Shot

6 Ambiente (Bet Now: $12.00) is a talented son of Trade Fair who resumed over this track/distance a fortnight back where he sat up outside Undisclosed where he tried hard outside the mare but she had hard race fitness and proved too good, but this gelding didn’t turn it up. Maps to sit off a fast speed and have last say.

Race 5. (17:05) Schweppes Handicap (1MW) 1000m

Back Me

I’ll take a chance on 3 Cardup Legend (Bet Now: $23.00). Gary Crispin trains this gelding, who hasn’t raced in over two years, so this will be quite the achievement if he was to win. Before he was tipped out, he showed really good promise, winning three on the bounce. Trialled up well here last Monday…looks to be going well enough.

Danger

1 Speeding Comet (Bet Now: $4.50) is a son of Manhattan Rain for Simon Miller who has been a fraction disappointing in recent times. In saying that, he was wide no cover three weeks back at this track/distance and that effort just told on him late behind Super Maxi. Draws much better this time around and can be a sharp improver.

Long Shot

12 Hashtag (Bet Now: $81.00) is a Sharon Miller trained mare that resumes here. This girl hasn’t raced for around seven months since racing at Mount Barker where she looked to race like a tired horse behind Daisy Express. Can pull out a decent run fresh and I reckon she’s a big watch given she comes here with no trials.

Race 6. (17:40) Belmont Guineas 1600m

Back Me

9 Necklet (Bet Now: $6.00) on top. I’m happy to give her another look after racing over 1400m here a fortnight back where she was off the map with punters and after getting a lovely sit near the speed, she didn’t finish it off at all and was most disappointing behind Roganella. Firmer footing, hopefully, and up to the mile should suit.

Danger

2 Roganella (Bet Now: $2.90) won the race mentioned above and gee his effort was outstanding. He got a fair way back in the run before Noske poked his way through the field and once he popped into clear air, he savaged the line to win most impressively. Harvey on, gate one, upside…ticks alot of boxes for mine.

Long Shot

1 Debellatio (Bet Now: $20.00) is three weeks between runs since racing over 1300m here where he had the 1/1 sit and to my eye he had his chance but when the winner of the race was Enticing Star, I think you can forgive him. Back to his own age now, I reckon up to the mile can spark some sharp improvement.

Race 7. (18:15) HG Bolton Sprint 1200m

Back Me

2 Profit Street (Bet Now: $3.80) is a talented gelding who was a notable drifing fav when resuming in the Beaufine and the market got it right as he struggled to let down on the soft track when fourth to Mr Motown. I reckon on top of the ground, with the run under the belt, he should take a power of beating here.

Danger

1 Durendal (Bet Now: $4.50) is a Chris Gangemi trained sprinter who is racing so consistently at the moment, but just can’t crack it for a win. He ran second in the Beaufine where he was outside the leader, hit the front and looked home but Mr Motown had the suck run behind and had last say. Should get the run of the race…a threat. Could I back him to win? Nah.

Long Shot

5 Meteoroid (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Simon Miller trained mare who was a drifter in betting when resuming in the Beaufine and forgive and forget she went around given she was wide no cover for the trip and weakened out of it late behind Mr Motown. She’s too good of a mare to ignore off one poor run. Give her another look.

Race 8. (18:50) Dr James Forbes Handicap (66+) 1300m

Back Me

Won’t get it, but if we did have a wet track, I’d declare 1 Gunnago (Bet Now: $14.00). I reckon he’s going really well for the Jason Pateman team where he ran fourth last time out behind Enticing Star, beaten three lengths. No horse of that class here and if he can get on speed without doing too much work, he’ll take some beating.

Danger

11 Tellem We’re Comin (Bet Now: $3.50) is a son of Blackfriars that resumes for the Williams team. This gelding hasn’t raced since the WA Derby where he was outclassed behind stablemate Action. Unbeaten in two runs fresh, and his recent trial was more than encouraging to the eye. Pike on also, so he looks well placed.

Long Shot

13 Great Again (Bet Now: $5.50) on top for me in the get out. Lindsey Smith trained gelding who was well backed when resuming at Pinjarra and aided by a lovely ride on speed from Glenn Smith, the gelding proved far too classy. He can be hit and miss at times but when he is on, he’s a very good horse. Happy to be with him.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Six Number 9 Necklet

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 2 Profit Street

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 1 Gunnago

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 7, 12

Leg Two: 2, 9

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg Four: 1, 4, 11, 13

 

$100 Betting Strategy:

$50 Win Necklet R6

$10 Win/$40 Place Gunnago R8

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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