23/3/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Rosehill, Golden Slipper (Winx) day

One of the great days on the Australian racing calendar is Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill and the 2019 edition rolls around this Saturday with once again another outstanding card. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (8) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

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12 Into The Abyss…(Bet Now: $9.50) I know it’s only trials, but she looks to be going as well as any horse in Sydney at the moment. Was a general tease in the Spring, threatening to win a handy race but just kept finding one better or had no luck. Been given a good break and gee her trials have been enormous, sitting back and really savaging the line under no real pressure. She’s primed to run a beauty fresh.

6 Serene Miss (Bet Now: $9.00) is a big improver for mine. She was 43 weeks between runs when resuming over 1200m at Randwick and she did parade quite big with improvement to come and that’s that how she raced behind Renewal in a bunched finish. She is a mare who loves a track with give in it and she’ll get that here, plus is 2/2 when produced second up.

The Kris Lees/Australian Bloodstock combo is flying and I think they can get another Stakes win via 8 Star Reflection (Bet Now: $15.00). She looks to be going really well for the stable. Had a solid Spring/Summer before being given a freshen up. Resumed in the Wenona Girl at Randwick and I thought she was an eye catcher late behind Winter Pride. Ran well in this race last year but IMO is going much better 12 months later.

Really keen to see 14 Classique Legend (Bet Now: $1.65). Very exciting prospect for Les Bridge who is 2/2, both wins coming on the Kensington and each time he has looked a Group class horse, with an outstanding stride/action, runs time and spanks them. Tougher here clearly, but I’d be shocked if he didn’t measure up here, and being by Not A Single Doubt, the wet track should be fine.

13 Wagner (Bet Now: $9.50) is rising up a fair bit in grade but does come here with winning form next to his name. Resumed on the Kensington track where he looked in a bit of trouble under Robbie Dolan but was lifted late and clung on to win. He beat nothing relative to what he faces here, but a wet track is no issue for him, soft gate and Blake Shinn aboard looks a big tick.

11 Poised To Strike (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained three year old who should be suited at this level. He comes through the Zeditave at Caulfield where he just went too keen in the run and really had nothing left for the finale when behind the impressive winner Terbium. Like him with fresh legs because he was so dynamic fresh last time, so giving him another chance.

I think it’ll take a pretty good performance to beat 10 Shraaoh (Bet Now: $3.10). He’s my early tip for the Sydney Cup because he’s just a pure stayer who will eat up ground, and importantly in this race, he gets give in the track, something he absolutely lapped up when winning over 2800m on Melbourne Cup Day. Loomed large last time to win the Randwick Stakes but I reckon his condition just gave out. Should be near ready now, keen.

Getting back onto a rain affected track will really suit 1 Big Duke (Bet Now: $10.00). He got that first up here in the Parramatta Cup when beaten by stablemate Red Cardinal before going to the Randwick Stakes where he got back on firmer footing and ran well without threatening behind Hiyaam. Looks ready for the 2400m now…not sure he beats Shraaoh but can run well all the same.

3 One Foot In Heaven (Bet Now: $17.00) has got his hoof right on the till to win a race. Is it here? Perhaps. His Randwick Stakes effort was pretty good. Given a lovely ride from Tommy and on the turn he loomed large. Just think his condition gave out late but the effort was sound. He’s a horse who is noted for lapping up a wet surface, and that’s what he’ll get here, so he’s got to be respected.

It’s really all about 1 The Autumn Sun (Bet Now: $1.35) isn’t it? Been waiting for him to get over more ground and that is indeed what he gets here against the three year olds, and he should be winning again. Stunning win in the Randwick Guineas last time. Had no right to get there given where he was on the turn, spotting Fundamentalist around 10 lengths, yet still surged and got the win. Better suited over further…just wins.

The Baker/Forsman team rarely get it wrong when they bring one over and that appears to be the case once again with 2 Madison County (Bet Now: $10.00). His run in the Randwick Guineas was very good I thought, closing off strongly after being initially flat footed when the sprint went on. I think the NZ Derby form is rubbish and prefer to go with the proven Group l performer from over there, which is this bloke, and he thrives on a track with give in it.

9 Dealmaker (Bet Now: $18.00) is a Chris Waller trained three year old who comes through the Australian Guineas where he got a fair way back in an on pace dominated affair and was given a lovely steer from Mick Dee but no match late for the star filly that is Mystic Journey. Looks like the 2000m will be ideal for him and Bowman on, he does look well placed to run a decent race.

Does anyone watch recent/modern episodes of ‘The Simpsons’? IMO, the funnies stopped after season nine, and the show has gone downhill ever since. They’ve gone to the well one too many times…bit like me with the Parlays. And like the writers, I can’t stop going there. But anyway, back to this race and in what will be her farewell to Rosehill, 4 Winx (Bet Now: $1.07) should record another George Ryder triumph and the scary thing is that she looks to have come on from that hard Chipping Norton. It will and always is a pleasure to watch her go around.

1 Land Of Plenty (Bet Now: $20.00), for me, is a risk on a wet ground, but he does have class/quality to perhaps overcome that. Problem is he needs a run leading into the Doncaster and they didn’t run in the Ajax, so they have to run here. Could argue all day as to why he didn’t get a start in the All Star Mile, but he’s here, with fresh legs, and should run well en route to the big mile.

8 Ringerdingding (Bet Now: $26.00) is going really well for Chris Waller I feel. He did a great job in the Australian Guineas in what was an on pace dominated affair, working home with real purpose late to run fourth to Mystic Journey. Outside Winx, that’s the best form in Australia at the moment and this colt has form around the latter two. Reads well for this to perhaps run a place.

Taking a chance with 5 He’s Eminent (Bet Now: $9.00), a UK raider who is having his first run for Sir Mark Todd. Hasn’t race since the Glorious at Goodwood last year when down the track behind Mirage Dancer in a race which quite frankly stunk when it came to being a Cups reference. Little concern there, but he’s now with Todd and from all reports, he’s loving life at Canterbury…the only question mark is wet ground. Breeding says he’ll be fine…that’s the only niggle.

10 Danzdanzdance (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Chris Gibbs trained mare from NZ who comes here with the best NZ form on the board, having run a narrow second to star mare Melody Belle in the Bonecrusher NZ Stakes at Ellerslie last time in a stirring battle to the line. The negative is that when the Melody Belle form has been tested in Australia, it’s been awful, but the wet track and gate one are big ticks.

The set up is here for 13 Egg Tart (Bet Now: $11.00) to go close…I couldn’t back her to win because she’s cost me far too much but a win wouldn’t surprise. She’s faced Winx in both runs back from a spell and has been quite good, the latest in the Chipping Norton. Her record at 2000m+ on wet ground is very good and she arrives here third up, ready to peak with favourable conditions.

It’s hard not to have been impressed by 9 Tenley (Bet Now: $5.00) to date. Unbeaten for James Cummings, she comes through the Reisling, where she produced a really good finale from off the pace again to win, her second victory for the prep. Comes into this third up with strong performances under the belt, so fitness no issue/excuse, and on breeding, the wet track should be fine.

2 Mircophone (Bet Now: $7.00) is a key threat, clearly. Skyline winner for James Cummings who comes here with some ripping form next to his name, with the last start being the Skyline, proving far too good for his rivals and running decent time. The wet track is the only concern with him. Outside that, he’s one of the hardest to beat with Bowman getting the steer.

11 Anaheed (Bet Now: $20.00) could be a knockout chance at odds, especially if the track remains heavy. Tough winner of the Sweet Embrace two back before backing up a week later in the Reisling when wide no cover and sticking on well in defeat when fourth to Tenley. The wet track could see her turn the tables, but if the track does dry out to a soft7 or better, I doubt she turns the tables, but goes in all multiples.

Took a slice of $8 all in for 1 Redzel (Bet Now: $4.80) because on a consistent level, he’s the best sprinter in Australia, so why he was that price I do not know. Punting hat on, you’d say he was disappointing first up in the Challenge at Randwick when beaten a lip by Ball Of Muscle. But really, his run was very good, and in a different role. Normally he’s on speed and bullies them into submission, but this time he was off the pace and chased. I’d love to see McEvoy go on speed and eye ball Nature Strip because there will only be one victor there.

A fast run 1100m is going to really suit the Kris Lees trained 6 Graff (Bet Now: $4.80). Not sure he’s been suited by the straight track and slow mid race tempo in both runs back from a spell in the Lightning and Newmarket. Just pulled way too hard in the latter and left himself with no petrol tickets late behind Sunlight. Wet track no issue for him and a fast speed will be to his liking.

The knockout is clearly 13 Baller (Bet Now: $46.00) IMO. Very good first up winner at this track/distance before going to the Fireball where nothing really went right for him in a total forgive run behind Prophet’s Thumb. Right down in the weights, a hard 1100m no issue, he handles wet ground and is third up, so he should be ready fitness wise. I think he’ll run a positive race.

9 Domed (Bet Now: $8.00) is flying for John Thompson. Was really keen on her when she raced in the Canberra Cup last time but unfortunately the track dried right out, combined with a very slow tempo set by the eventual winner Samadoubt, meant Domed really had no chance but she did well to run fourth. Back to mares grade, crying out for a wet track…really keen on her running well.

I’m warming to 12 Jungle Fish (Bet Now: $6.00) for the Mick Kent stable. Rarely does the yard get it wrong in this race, or whenever they travel really, and this mare does look to be one of some promise. Has gone through the grades really nicely this prep, winning 3/3, the latest coming at Pakenham when somewhat ridden upside down but class got her home with the big weight. Don’t think she’ll mind a track with give and up to 1900m no issue given she ran so well in the Adrian Knox last year.

I think a rain affected track would really suit 3 All Too Soon (Bet Now: $5.50). Good resumption here behind Seaway before going to the Aspiration where she was a bit one paced and for the most part a tad disappointing I thought behind Nettoyer. She’s better than that and the key to her is getting back onto a track with genuine kick. Up to 1900m no issue either, so she can bounce back.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 Redzel

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 12 Into The Abyss

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 9 Domed

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 5, 8, 10, 13

Leg Two: 2, 5, 9, 10, 11, 15

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 3, 9, 12

$50 Investment = 69.44% of the dividend if successful

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