23/3/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Gimcrack Stakes day

The Ascot Autumn Carnival continues this Saturday where we will see a couple of key lead ups towards the Karrakatta Plate. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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1 Excise Free (Bet Now: $2.50) on top for me. Michael Lane trains this filly, who hasn’t raced since January 12 down the Pinjarra straight when given a lovely steer from Parnham to get the job done narrowly but impressively. Like a horse who is spelled after success, she returns and looked to trial up really well at Bunbury last week over 1000m. Ready to got first up for mine.

4 Bedouin Belle (Bet Now: $3.70) is a Lou Luciani trained filly who is 2/2 this time, winning first up at Pinjarra down the straight before going to Bunbury when wide no cover and was there to be beaten but she found plenty late under Whiting to get the job done. Like her back to 1000m off that hard run, and with cover/better luck this time around, I think she can measure up.

I reckon 9 The Witch Doctor (Bet Now: $23.00) will be suited back to 1000m on firmer footing. She comes through the Double Bubble race from two weeks ago over 1100m here on the soft track where she had a relatively good run near the speed and couldn’t really get going on the surface behind the Simon Miller filly. Does no work from gate one and could add value to exotics.

6 Plutococracy (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Simon Miller trained gelding who had his first run for the new stable here two weeks ago where I thought Parnham gave the horse every chance in the run but looked a fraction big in condition and I reckon it gave out late when fourth to Little Fish. Think he’ll take good improvement from that and the depth here isn’t overly strong.

8 Double Bubble (Bet Now: $2.20) is a stablemate of Plutocracy who takes on the older horses. She ran against her own age two weeks ago over 1100m here where she landed on speed and proved too good for them in a pretty good effort after being unwanted in betting. Taking on the older horses isn’t easy, but she’s got the right racing pattern and will be in it for a long way.

1 Vermont Lady (Bet Now: $21.00) is a daughter of Choisir for Paige Kenney who resumed in the Little Fish race from two weeks ago where she was back on a day where those near the speed were advantaged. The winner did come from the back as well and she was never really likely but did find the line well. Second up record is awful but hard to ignore the resumption.

9 Three Secrets (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Steve Wolfe trained gelding who has an awful winning strike rate but hasn’t been far away of late. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago when on speed, fighting on and just not quite getting the job done when a narrow third to Fair Sonari. Perhaps ridden with cover and clear air, he’ll have last say. Not a lot of confidence, but happy to be in his corner.

2 Midnight Sky (Bet Now: $2.80) is an Adam Durrant trained mare who has been excellent in both runs back from a break. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago and closed off strongly from off the pace but had to settle for a narrow second to Fair Sonari in a close go to the line. Third up, she should just about be ready to show her best, and is a definite threat.

5 Taxadermy (Bet Now: $9.50) comes through the Fair Sonari race from two weeks ago where he was never really in the hunt on a day where on speed was the spot to be but he did make ground late and wasn’t too bad. Think he’ll be much better suited on top of the ground and can perform second up. An improved showing wouldn’t shock at all…enough to win? Not sure.

2 Beethoven (Bet Now: $7.00) for me but this does look a pretty good edition of the Perth Stakes, a key lead up to the Karrakatta Plate. He resumed in the Supremacy two weeks ago and ran a good race fresh against a couple of sharp youngsters when third to Prim And Proper. Think the 1100m will be fine for him and did look to parade with a stack of condition left in the locker.

1 Jericho Missile (Bet Now: $1.90) is a David Harrison trained youngster who has been kept on ice since producing a brilliant finale from off the pace to resume with a win in the Magic Millions at Pinjarra in an impressive win in a race where the form has been franked via Niccovi. I think whatever he does here, he will improve on, but he’ll be charging at the end I’m sure.

5 Dig Deep (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Deep Field gelding for the Pearce camp who debuted at Bunbury just over two weeks ago where he was well specked in betting and under a confident steer from Jarrod Noske, he proved far too good. Form wasn’t exactly franked last Saturday, but he’s got enormous upside i think and is in the right stable. Knockout chance against these.

6 Amelia’s On Fire (Bet Now: $4.80) looks an above average filly for the Simon Miller stable who debuted here on Feb 16 when backed off the map and she lived up to the hype with a commanding performance under Pike and time was good relative to the day. Stable always produce a good youngster heading towards the Karrakatta and this looks one of their leading chances.

3 Specialism (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Safeguard filly for Paul Jordan resuming. She did a great job in her first campaign, winning two of three, with the defeat coming at the hands of Jericho Missile, who does look well above average. Trialled up well last recently at Belmont in readiness and she’s got the right racing pattern. She’ll be in it for a long way and is hard to beat for sure.

2 Miss West Coast (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Trevor Andrews trained filly who has been freshened up since the Magic Millions at Pinjarra where I thought Noske gave the filly every chance but she couldn’t quite get the job done when third to Jericho Missile. The tick over trial was very good to the eye and I think back to 1100m will be ideal heading towards the Karrakatta. Definite chance.

8 Mizlecki (Bet Now: $5.50) for me. Fred Kersley trains this mare, who has been excellent in both runs back from a break. Ran over 1400m here three weeks ago and worked home strongly from the back to run third to Forceful, beaten just over a length. I think she’s flying and is knocking on the door to win this race. Hopefully the breaks go her way and she can get the job done.

1 Achernar Star (Bet Now: $3.70) is a Simon Miller trained gelding who got a well deserved Stakes win on the board last time out in the Bunbury Stakes, under a lovely steer from Olly who really lifted the horse late and got the win near the peg. Great record at Ascot and is a proven weight carrier so the 60.5kg impost no issue, draws well…extremely hard to beat.

3 Variation (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Stephen Miller trained gelding who was 66 weeks between runs when resuming in the Bunbury Stakes where there was good specking for him, and I think his condition just naturally gave out late when fifth to Archenar Star. Has an excellent second up record and great stats at Ascot…just a little query on the second up syndrome after a long break.

5 New Age (Bet Now: $4.20) is an Adam Durrant trained mare who has been quite good in both runs back from a spell. Resumed with a pretty decent win at Bunbury before racing over the mile here where she got back in an on pace dominated affair and tried hard when a narrow second to Bella’s Idol, who franked the form next time out. Up to 2100m, third up, she’s well placed.

3 Mycroft (Bet Now: $4.50) is a Ross Price trained stayer who comes through the Bunbury Cup where he landed on speed and looked to fight on well but perhaps the class was a bit rich. In saying that, he was far from disgraced when fifth to Burger Time. Think he’s better with cover and the claim for Kate Witten looks ideal. He can definitely bounce back if that eventuates.

12 Royal Strata (Bet Now: $17.00) is a Justin Warwick trained mare who comes through the Bella’s Idol race from two weeks ago over 1800m here where she got into a decent spot just off the speed and tried hard but the winner just dashed right away in front and won impressively. 2100m I have a little query on with her, but with a soft trip, I think she’ll be okay with it.

6 Bella’s Idol (Bet Now: $5.50) is racing just so well at the moment that he’s hard to ignore. This Brett Pope trained galloper has won his past two, given a sweet steer from Pateman to win two back before backing up a week later at this track/distance and he absolutely bolted in, leading all the way and spanking them by a space. Repeats that effort here and he’ll go close.

2 Forecful (Bet Now: $2.35) is three weeks between runs for the Williams camp since racing over 1400m here where he got a fair way back in the run but Pike weaved his magic wand once again and the gelding surged really hard late to get the win. Stepping up to 1800m is a little bit of a query with him but he’s got the talent and should take some beating against this lot.

10 Juicing Carrots (Bet Now: $21.00) comes through the Rockon Tommy race from two weeks ago over the mile where that horse got an absolute picnic in front and rightfully dashed clear late, but Juicing Carrots, who had the suck run behind, he stuck to the task pretty well. Up to 1800m should suit him and he has a really good second up record. A win wouldn’t totally shock.

BEST BET: Race Eight Number 6 Bella’s Idol

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 6 Plutocracy

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 8 Mizlecki

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 6

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 8

Leg Three: 3, 4, 5, 12, 13

Leg Four: 6

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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