23/12/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Ted Van Heemst Stakes day

The Summer Carnival at Ascot continues this Saturday where it is Ted Van Heemst Stakes Day, with the 2100m feature being an important lead up to the Perth Cup. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

1 The Shoe (Bet Now: $5.50) in the opener. Stephen Miller trained three year old who steps up to the 1500m after racing over 1200m here last Wednesday where the market went cold on him and after sitting wide no cover throughout, that move was spot on, but to his credit he stuck on really well. Draws much better and 1500m, I don’t think, will be an issue.

5 Icecrusher (Bet Now: $3.70) is a progressive filly for the Dan Morton yard who won the maiden impressively two back at Bunbury before going to Pinjarra where she sat back and savaged the line late to run second to Missile Launch, who I am keen on in race five, so I think that form reads well for a three year old contest.

6 Lucky Roar (Bet Now: $13.00) is a two start maiden for Jim Taylor but she has shown promise. Debuted over 1000m and was far from disgraced behind Street Fury before a game fifth to Paddy’s Shadow over 1200m here. Think she’ll appreciate the step up to the 1500m and she does more scope than most engaged here.

2 Touch Of Silver (Bet Now: $2.30) looks a great bet here. Adam Durrant trains this galloper who is on the seven day back up after racing over the mile here last Saturday where he just got too far back in a slowly run affair yet still charged home to just miss out on picking up Wrinkly. He’s flying this prep and up to 1800m a big tick.

5 Mosserati (Bet Now: $4.20) is bursting to win a race. Nabbed by Push To Pass two back before racing at this track/distance a fortnight back where he couldn’t get the momentum up in time when fourth to First Affair. He is getting near D-Day, but he looks to map super and I doubt he’ll get held up this time around.

4 Friaresque (Bet Now: $4.80) will appreciate the step up to the nine furlongs. He ran over 1500m here a fortnight back where he got a mile out of his ground in a truly run affair yet made up good ground late behind Wrinkly, who of course went on to win again last Saturday, so the form reads very well, and he has upside.

2 Remember Berlin…(Bet Now: $4.50) last chance. He’s burned a few holes in my pocket this prep but surely he wins this. Ran over the 1200m here a fortnight back and did an enormous job in defeat, sitting wide no cover on speed, hitting the front, only to be bloused by Get Over It. Draws well, gets the claim…surely his race.

1 See Me Sizzle (Bet Now: $7.50) is a tough, tough campaigner for the Williams team who is on the seven day back up after racing over the mile here last Saturday where the slow tempo was really against him as he wanted to pull his head off in the run, which left him with no petrol tickets at the end. If he can relax here, he’ll look the winner at some stage.

8 Swift Platinum (Bet Now: $10.00) comes through the Wrinkly race at this track/distance two weeks ago. He had a relatively good run near the speed and tried hard to reel in the eventual winner but he just ran out of condition late. Should be near peak fitness now, draws to get a okay run near the tempo and looks value.

1 Celebrity Dream (Bet Now: $1.80) appears to be the one. She ran in the Jungle Dawn a fortnight back over 1400m where she was given a sweet steer from Pike against her fellow mares and won with a touch of arrogance on the line. Up to the mile looks only beneficial, she’s been beating these mares up…should do it again. Just want Parnham to cuddle her in order to run the mile.

3 Fontainebleu (Bet Now: $4.60) looks the only horse capable of beating Celebrity Dream. Tried very hard in the Jungle Dawn to hold the win but just no match for the turn of foot produced by Celebrity Dream. If we get a brutally or at a least a genuinely run mile, I think this mare may be the one to hold out late.

5 Patapus (Bet Now: $16.00) is a risk at the mile but he looks to get a relatively soft lead to the eye. She got that in the Jungle Dawn and gave a good kick but just lacked the class of those that beat her. I think something similar will happen again. She’ll lead, control things and kick. Doubt she wins, but a place chance for sure.

7 Missile Launch (Bet Now: $2.70) rises in grade but he’s the form horse of the field and hard to ignore a horse with a picket fence. Dynamic maiden win first up at Bunbury before going to Pinjarra where he took on a field with a bit of depth to it but he handled it beautifully and finished best, beating Icecrusher, who is a leading chance in the opener. Happy to be in his corner.

1 Russian River (Bet Now: $4.00) is on the seven day turnaround after racing over 1400m here last Saturday where he sat near the speed and wound up with purpose when asked for the big effort, but he had to settle for a close up second to Ragazzo D’Oro. Should be hard fit now and the claim for Fiona Bell is a big tick.

6 Scooner…(Bet Now: $6.50) dear me he has been a bludger since coming to Australia, especially WA, but he does save his best for when he is produced fresh and that is what he is here after a frustrating Winter prep. Two from five first up and to my eye he went very nicely in a Lark Hill trial last Monday. Might be the knockout runner.

2 Material Man (Bet Now: $3.00) on top. He was given such a sweet ride by Mitch Pateman in the Kingston Town and really, the ride deserved the win, but he just had no answers for the turn of foot produced by Pounamu the final 100m. I think Lucy getting back on this horse she knows so well is a big tick and the 2100m will suit him better.

1 Pounamu…(Bet Now: $3.20) he’s a Group l winner. Hard to believe because once upon a time he was struggling to win a maiden at Gosford. But he got the Kingston Town win and he just savaged the line, like he did in the Railway. The 2100m is the unknown. He has run well at 2000m, but 2100m against Material Man is a challenge.

One horse who will eat up the trip is 3 Zarantz (Bet Now: $6.50). He comes through the Towton Cup won by Trap For Fools, who absolutely walked them in front and gave nothing from behind a look in, but I thought Zarantz was excellent to the line and through it. He’s the smokey for the Perth Cup, but could be one of the hardest to beat if he performs here.

4 Key To Fame (Bet Now: $7.50) on top, just. Simon Miller trains this gelding who has been up a fair while but continues to race well. Attempted to lead all the way at this track/distance a fortnight back and gave a strong kick but was nabbed near the peg by Get Over It. Mitchell can take his time getting over from the draw. If he does, he’s the one.

11 Hems Gate (Bet Now: $12.00) is four weeks between runs since resuming at this track/distance where he was wide no cover on speed yet looked to travel really well. Loomed to win but just ran out of puff late in the piece and had to settle for fourth to Get Over It. Form out of that has been strong and he is a strong second up performer.

6 Settlers Creek (Bet Now: $15.00) is three weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here where was without cover near the speed and he is a horse who does like a drag up into the race so the scenario didn’t suit and he tired late behind La Mouline, but that form does look very good. Happy to give him another look as a multiples play.

16 West Fifty Fourth (Bet Now: $6.00) clearly on top in the get out. Chris Gangemi looks to have a really promising galloper on his hands here. First up after debuting over 1000m at Belmont back in June where he sat off the speed before presenting at the right time and forging clear late. Trialled like a bomb recently at Belmont and was scratched from an easier race on Wednesday for this.

7 Scalpel (Bet Now: $3.80) arguably should be unbeaten but he has just been plagued by bad luck, whether it be wide gates or in running. He had to do work from the gate first up over 1000m here before eventually getting cover. Chimed in to win the race but ran out of condition late. Just needs to get cover from the gate to be a threat.

3 Kramden (Bet Now: $19.00) comes through the same race as Scalpel a fortnight back over 1000m here. He was a hard luck story from the race, getting badly held up after appearing to be bolting in the run. He is another, like some engaged here, that can be a bit hit and miss at times, but he’s hard fit, draws well and gets the claim.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Celebrity Dream

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 2 Material Man

VALUE: Race One Number 1 The Shoe

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 7

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7

Leg Three: 4, 6, 10, 11, 12

Leg Four: 1, 3, 5, 7, 16

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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