23/11/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Railway Stakes day

The biggest and best raceday in WA racing comes around at Ascot this Saturday with a bumper nine race card, headlined by the Railway Stakes (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit.

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5 Here Comes Lenni (Bet Now: $4.20) likely has eyes towards the Perth Cup, like a few engaged here, but despite coming back to 1800m from 2200m three weeks between runs, I think he’s hard to beat here. He ran a narrow second to Missile Launch in that 2200m race and that form was ticked off last Saturday in the Ascot Cup with that horse running third. Despite back in trip, he’s hard to beat here.

4 Harry Thomas (Bet Now: $3.50) is a little query at 1800m but he does bring some really good form next to his name. Has run at this track/distance at his past few, winning two back before racing here two weeks ago and running a game second to Forceful, who went within a lip of winning the Ascot Cup last Saturday, so that clearly reads well for this kind of race.

6 Dark Prospect (Bet Now: $12.00) was unwanted in betting when racing over 2200m here last start and on paper, the run behind Missile Launch was poor, but given the slow early tempo, he had no chance of getting the win. I reckon back in trip will suit him nicely and while he’s been up a long time, he continues to race pretty well and I reckon is a must for exotics.

7 Kissonforallcheeks (Bet Now: $7.00) is on top for me in an intriguing edition of the Crystal Slipper. Dan Morton trains this filly, who is on debut off the back of a trial at Belmont last Monday where she was back off the speed and under pressure in the straight, but loved the way she responded and found the line to run a closing second. 1100m first up looks ideal and off the trial, she’ll be strong late here I’m sure.

3 Our Danni (Bet Now: $1.95) has race experience on her side and most importantly, it’s winning race experience. Pike put her into the dream spot when debuting here two weeks ago, getting the beaut drag up behind the leader before peeling off its back and finishing best to win impressively. Looks to be a bit of depth here, but she has race experience and that will take her a long way towards victory.

2 Ginger Baker (Bet Now: $14.00) us a son of Gingerbread Man on debut for Vernon Brockman. He comes through the Belmont trial mentioned above where Kissonforallcheeks ran second in, the trial won by Long May You Run. He was on speed in the trial and wasn’t really asked for an effort in a nice piece of work under Ryan Hill. Looks a professional and appeared to do everything right in the trial.

Tricky race this for the short course horses but I’ll go with a horse that is first up in the shape of 1 Speeding Comet (Bet Now: $8.50), who resumes for Simon Miller off the back of two trials. Loved the way he went in the first trial. The second trial he was wide no cover on a very fast tempo and dropped out, so visually, no good, but there were reasons. He’s had a decent enough grounding for this first up assignment.

10 Miss Tycoon (Bet Now: $4.00) is two weeks between runs for Neville Parnham and back to 1000m looks ideal for her. Outclassed first up in the Belgravia before racing over 1100m here last time out when looming to win but couldn’t finish it off and ran out of room late when fourth to an in form Massimo. Draws a soft gate once again with a cold steer and back to 1000m is a big tick.

3 More Aces (Bet Now: $7.50) is a tough, tough customer for Jim Taylor that is on the seven day back up after racing at this track/distance last Saturday when leading at a very solid clip and was entitled to fade away and finish down the track but he kept chipping away and I thought was really good in defeat behind impressive winner Undisclosed. If he can lead and not cop as much pressure, he’ll take some running down.

If the Melbourne Spring hasn’t busted her, then surely 7 Niccovi (Bet Now: $2.45) beats these. She didn’t win in three runs during the Carnival, but she was very good, the latest on Oaks Day down the straight when a closing and narrow second to the in form Sisstar. She is racing as if 1200m suits and this looks a serious drop in depth for her so happy to be in her corner.

1 Massimo (Bet Now: $2.70) is flying for Fred Kersley, winning two on the bounce. Led all the way to win at this track/distance two back before backing up a week later and coming back 100m in trip when off the pace but surged late and finished best in a super win. Hard 1200m will be no issue for him and he has versatility re racing pattern, which is such an advantage to have in your kit bag.

3 Ziebell (Bet Now: $7.50) needs to improve to win but he has the right racing pattern and is in good form. Sharp winner on the home track at Kalgoorlie three back before racing at Ascot at his next two. Narrow second to Ebony Magi before on speed over 1100m here and being bloused late by Massimo. 1200m at this level is a query but has early speed and will give some cheek.

I find 6 Kemono (Bet Now: $6.50) a fascinating runner. Japanese runner that has had a couple of homes in Australia but is now with Lindsey Smith and his record this season has been unbelievable. It will be remarkable if he can turn this guy around but he’s done it with several horses. Can’t find a recent jumpout but I think he has to be a market/yard watch because his best is clearly good enough.

I have no idea what to make of the first up run of 2 Arcadia Prince (Bet Now: $6.00) in the Lee Steere. He was awful. Sat last in the run, peeled wide but as soon as Pike asked for an effort, he found nothing and went backwards. Interesting that the dreaded Bar Plates were on, and how often do you see a horse run terrible with them on. He’s too good of a horse to dismiss off one run.

1 Tally (Bet Now: $5.50) is a James Cummings trained galloper that is using this as a tune up for the Kingston Town in two weeks so whether he has the dash in the legs for 1400m I’m not sure, but when in Sydney, he was flying, as seen in the Rosehill Cup where he spanked them and was just far too good. Chapada came out of that and ran well in the Zipping Classic so the form doesn’t read too bad.

3 Dance Music (Bet Now: $2.20) for me. Third up from a break, this mare should just about ready re fitness. She ran over this track/distance two weeks ago when getting a dream run just off the speed and once she was presented clear air, it looked game over, and she looked the winner, but was bloused late by an in form Uni Time, who got the split and dashed too well. Parnham on, hoping she jumps to the front and dominates proceedings.

2 Electric Light (Bet Now: $3.50) looks well placed up to 1200m and back to Mares grade. She comes through the Prince Of Wales from three weeks ago where she got the suck run out the back before poking her way through the field and finding the line pretty well I thought behind Flirtini. Fitter and up to 1200m are two big ticks for her and she’s hard to beat despite a tricky barrier.

5 Midnight Sky (Bet Now: $35.00) is coming back to 1200m from the mile, which was her kick off point two weeks ago at this track and I liked the way she finished her race off behind Forceful, who was beaten a lip last Saturday, so the form reads well enough. She has that Celebrity Dream look about her. Good run at 1200m and 1400m before peaking at 1600m/1800m. One to watch late.

Have to be with 9 Kay Cee (Bet Now: $7.00). I think she and Tuscan Queen are the two best 3YO’s in WA so I’m trusting that form here in the Guineas. Kay Cee contested the Champion Fillies last Saturday where she was held by Tuscan Queen but her run was full of merit. Crabbed a bit on the turn and lost momentum but picked up and was very good late. If she can sit that little bit closer in the run, I think she’s the winner.

1 Dig Deep (Bet Now: $3.40) is flying for the Pearce stable but he just can’t draw a gate and that’s the case again here, so it will need to be some Olly magic to get him home. He has been clearly the flashing light horse in the lead ups, the latest in the Fairetha when a closing third to Red Can Man. He’ll eat up 1600m, champion jockey booked…just needs that ounce of luck from the draw.

I like 7 Bogart (Bet Now: $23.00) as a horse and I love the booking of Avdulla. To me, Bogart looks a bludger that needs encouragement. Someone to stand over him and you’d be hard pressed to find anyone better for the job. Didn’t think he was too bad in the Fairetha behind Red Can Man and while he does look a prep away, a likely WA Derby horse, I think he’ll run well here at odds.

6 The Velvet King (Bet Now: $5.50) hasn’t really run a bad race throughout his career and I think he can take this out. He was three weeks between runs when contesting the Lee Steere a fortnight back when on speed and fighting hard, but was bloused late by surprise winner Star Exhibit. Gets in really well at the weights, lands on speed, he’s tough and has upside.

12 Regal Power (Bet Now: $8.50) is a key chance. Team Williams trains this quality four year old, who resumed two weeks ago in the Asian Beau and looked to have every chance, but was no match late for Samizdat, who had fitness on his side and all the momentum out wide to grab him late. Now has the run under the belt and a step up in trip should really suit him.

What to make of 3 Star Exhibit? (Bet Now: $17.00) The market and most punters gave him no chance in the Lee Steere but under Peter Hall, he weaved his way through the field and scored a massive win, which wasn’t surprising to Bob Peters and Adam Durrant, who gave the horse a good push prior to the race. Off that, he has to be respected as a winning chance.

9 Black Sabbath (Bet Now: $3.80) is becoming a bit costly to follow and trust for punters but his two runs back from a spell have seen genuine excuses I think. Just bumped into a really good one first up in the shape of Uni Time before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago where he just got badly pocketed behind runners and didn’t really get clear til it was all over. He’s going well, so think he deserves another chance.

10 Carocapo (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Jim Taylor trained gelding who comes through the Uni Time race from two weeks ago and I thought his effort in what looked a strong event was full of merit. He sat on speed in a fast race and could have easily put the white flag up, but he kept finding and it took two Stakes class runners to beat him. If he can get on speed without spending too many petrol tickets, he’ll take some beating.

12 Prevailing Windso (Bet Now: $26.00) is the interesting runner. Chris Gangemi trains this gelding, who is first up after a three run Winter prep to kick off his WA and didn’t really fire a shot. The stable has given him a good break and has trialled twice in readiness for his return, and has looked pretty good to the eye. Off his Melbourne form, he’s a knockout chance.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 9 Kay Cee

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 9 Black Sabbath

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 1 Speeding Comet

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 5

Leg Two: 9

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6, 12

Leg Four: 9

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