23/10/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley, Cox Plate day

The two day Cox Plate Carnival at Moonee Valley wraps up on Saturday, headlined by the race regarded as ‘Australia’s Best Race’ the Cox Plate (2040m). The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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The gate looks tricky for 11 Red Rapid (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) but I was taken by a recent jumpout from her at Cranbourne. She had the suck run behind the speed before getting the inside split and she went through her gears under no pressure and won quite well, with something in hand. If she can get luck from the draw, she’ll take beating.

4 Tattenham (Bet Now: $31.00 TOP ODDS) is a stablemate of Red Rapid that ran second in the jumpout mentioned above. This Hellbent colt led the jumpout before getting off the fence, giving Red Rapid the split. Tattenham was under light riding but moved well and stable finds Bowman to steer.

2 Semillion (Bet Now: $20.00 TOP ODDS) creates interest. Team Hawkes trained colt that took on open class horses in a recent Flemington jumpout. He showed good early toe to sit on speed in the jumpout and though pushed out late, I thought it was a good piece of work. He commands respect here.

I think the lightly raced three year old 10 Starry Legend (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) can take this our. John Sadler trained colt that looks a real short course specialist so 1000m I do like for him. Backed as if unbeatable when resuming at Mornington and those that were on weren’t concerned at any stage, leading throughout. Runner up, The Billionaire, bolted up last Saturday at Morphettville, so the form reads well and drawn soft, he can lead and prove hard to get past.

The best version of 6 Ranting (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is certainly capable. Team Corstens trained four year old that resumes and keep in mind this time last year, he won the Blue Sapphire, so he’s a good horse when right. Problem is he hasn’t shown it enough, but has jumped out well leading, draws a good gate and Olly steers.

1 Grandview Avenue (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is a beauty for Simon Ryan that resumes. He was the find of the latter part of the Spring/Summer last year, highlighted by a win at Stakes level in the Norman Carlyon at this track/distance. Saves his best for this track and is a very genuine horse.

9 Dancelittlesister (Bet Now: $15.00 TOP ODDS) creates interest. I don’t think she beat a great deal on debut at Bairnsdale, but she showed good early toe to lead from a wide gate, led throughout and bolted up, landing big bets in the process. Stable is in form and though rising to Stakes grade, we have seen so many times this Spring in these 3YO fillies races, different form is usually the right form.

2 New York Baby (Bet Now: $3.80 TOP ODDS) has done little wrong in her three start career to date. Resumed with a dominant win down the straight at Flemington before going to the Thoroughbred Club at Caulfield where she had the right run, wide with cover, and loomed to win, but was nabbed late by Sneaky Five. Hard fit now, she’ll take beating.

4 Ballynora (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) can be a sneaky chance. Strong maiden winner first up before a closing third two weeks ago behind a smart horse, Philonize, in a solid race that rated well. Should get a suck run from the draw and as I said earlier, different form is good form for these races.

6 Sudoko (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) for me. Talented animal for the Price/Kent team that was smashed in betting fresh at Sale. He took a while to wind into his work, perhaps due to the 60kg impost, but class came to the fore and he surged hard late to win. Tempo will be genuine, getts weight relief and will be strong at the end.

9 Dosh (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) will look the winner for a long way. She wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Manikato given her excellent last start effort in the Caulfield Sprint when leading and pipped near the peg by Savatoxl. 1200m is an obvious query, but she has the right racing pattern.

8 Mornington Glory (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) is a talented animal for Matt Laurie. Short priced elect and duly saluted to win on debut in a Bendigo maiden. Then thrown straight into the deep end in the Danehill where he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Kallos. That form does read well for this.

5 Whatafox (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Maher/Eustace trained filly that was odds on when resuming in a Swan Hill maiden. I was quite keen on her chances but perhaps just the 1300m was a bit sharp for her, but was strong late when second, with a big gap to third. Is she a sneaky Oaks type? Not sure, but she has ability and I think can take this out in what is a very winnable race.

9 The Amazonian (Bet Now: $35.00) can measure up here. Good return I thought at Cranbourne behind I Like Big Putts. She then went to Echuca where she led throughout and I liked the ticker she showed in getting the job done. She was there to be beaten but found plenty under pressure. Harder here, but in the right camp.

6 I Like Big Putts (Bet Now: $23.00) will land on speed and run a bold race. She was ridden with a sit when racing at this track last time out and in a bunched finish, was close up and good in defeat behind the in form Rhinoceros. I think back to her own sex, she can be positive from the outset and give cheek.

5 Elephant (Bet Now: $1.65) deserves another chance. Comes through a fast run Toorak where he loomed to win but couldn’t quite finish it off when down the track behind I’m Thunderstruck. I think he is much better suited at this level and he showed in the Feehan that WFA is no issue for him.

1 Best Of Days (Bet Now: $7.00) is capable if he produced somewhere near his best. Hasn’t raced since the Shannon at Rosehill on Golden Rose Day where he was close up behind Yonkers in a surprise finish for most. Has a good record at the Valley and looked to work in good order here during the week.

3 Romancer (Bet Now: $7.50) should be around the mark for Grahame Begg. He is a few weeks between runs since racing over 1500m at Sandown in the Sandown Stakes when wide no cover but despite that, he fought on quite well when second to Elephant. Like him up to the mile and is a winner at this track.

1 Forgot You (Bet Now: $1.80) has the talent under the hood to blow this lot away. He got a mile out of his ground in the Caulfield Guineas but like his past few runs, but finished off with real purpose and attacked the line like a horse wanting more ground behind Anamoe. He’ll eat up 2040m and is hard to beat.

2 Akihiro (Bet Now: $8.50) is racing like the 2040m will suit him. Gary Portelli trained three year old that comes through the Stan Fox and he was far from disgraced in defeat I thought behind Hilal in a solid effort. Up in trip should be fine for him and J Mac does get on with the horse quite well.

Always on guard with a hard luck run in an ordinary race, but I just can’t ignore 14 Blackcomb (Bet Now: $10.00). She should have walked in the Hill Smith at Morphettville last time but in a slowly run race, field was bunched and getting clear was just not happening for her. Gets a suck run from the good draw and gets a significant jockey upgrade.

12 Floating Artist (Bet Now: $4.00) can bounce back big time. He tried to force his way into the Caulfield Cup via the Coongy last Wednesday. He was smashed in betting but IMO, Teo just went too slow in front and it allowed those from the back be within range and blouse him. Gets to 2500m and I’d love to see him ridden with a sit and get a chance to build into the race.

10 Pondus (Bet Now: $2.20) looks to be ticking along nicely. He set a fast speed in the Bart Cummings and was entitled to knock right up but kept batting away and was quite good in defeat behind Grand Promenade, a leading Cup chance. Better for the run, and perhaps with a more conservative steer, he’ll be more effective.

4 Attorney (Bet Now: $19.00) deserves another chance. His run in the Kingston Town was full of merit behind She’s Ideel. That’s why he was fancied in the Metropolitan but he failed to beat a runner home and was terrible. Tick over trial was a good piece of work and off the Kingston Town run, he’s right in this.

9 Anamoe (Bet Now: $3.30) has come out of two fast run races, so he’s got a perfect springboard for the 2040m assignment. Brutally run Caulfield Guineas and when it came down to class coming to the fore, he had it in spades and got the win. Tumbles in weight and is racing like he will eat up 2040m. He’ll take a power of beating I’d suggest.

If you are an SP profile fan, you have to respect 6 Verry Elleegant (Bet Now: $3.10). She was smashed in betting in the Turnbull and 600m out, she was the only horse you wanted to be on given how she was trucking. But as soon as pressure was applied, she couldn’t finish off and wanted to lay in under pressure. Incentivise…well we know what he did last Saturday, so I think she is the clear forgotten horse here.

8 State Of Rest (Bet Now: $8.00) has got the looks and the engine under the hood to command respect. Zaaki and Anamoe are the talk of the town and rightfully so, but this guy has the O’Brien polish, he has a turn of foot…the query will be if we get a wet track, because a drop of rain and he’ll struggle. A firm deck and he’s a definite winning chance.

2 Vanna Girl (Bet Now: $15.00) is one of the more class runners of the field and I’ll bank on that getting her home here. Resumed in the Rose Of Kingston when dragged back to near last and she just couldn’t get involved behind Still A Star. Much better suited here and with the scratchings, she won’t be as far back as first thought.

5 Magna Bella (Bet Now: $11.00) will be hard to beat if this track is suiting those on speed. Near the speed throughout in the Stocks last start and battled on well in defeat when second to So You Assume. Meech sticks, good trial win to keep her ticking over and think she lands on speed, proving tough to get past.

11 Ecumenical (Bet Now: $15.00) is suited up in trip for Mick Huxtable. She ran in the Rose Of Kingston three weeks ago at Flemington where she was just off the speed throughout from the good draw and battled on pretty well in defeat behind Still A Star. Proven performer at this trip so giving her respect.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Forgot You

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 12 Floating Artist

LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 9 Dancelittlesister

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1

Leg Two: 4, 7, 10, 12

Leg Three: 6, 8, 9, 10

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 11

$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful

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