The Brisbane Carnival warms up this Saturday at Doomben with four blacktype events across the eight event program. The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out 1.5 metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:07) : Mandate Handicap 2200m:
Back Me: 1 Emerald City (Bet Now: $4.40) on top for me here. David Vandyke trained galloper that has had two runs back from a break, the latest coming in the Toowoomba Cup where he tried hard but just didn’t finish it off behind Cylinder Beach. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise and looms as the one to beat.
Big Danger: 4 Comacina (Bet Now: $2.40) is on the quick back up after racing over the mile here where he got a mile back in the run and closing off strongly late behind Ruling Force. 1600m to 2200m in the space of seven days is no easy task, but I’ll trust that the stable know what they are doing with him.
Long Shot: 6 Last Sight (Bet Now: $9.00) is also on the seven day turnaround after racing at this track/distance last Saturday where he got back off the speed and wanted to duck in, but he worked home okay late in the piece. Bit more depth here, but will be strong late and is hard fit. Knockout chance at odds.
Race Two (12:42) : Mandate Plate 1050m:
Back Me: Sticking fat with 9 Splitter (Bet Now: $4.20). She debuted for the Gollan camp in the two year old race at Toowoomba a fortnight back and chased a brutal speed throughout, and given it was her first start, she was entitled to drop out but she fought on until the final 75m. I think with natural improvement, she can be stronger at the end.
Big Danger: 5 Cooroi Chase (Bet Now: $3.50) is a Show A Heart filly that was a drifter in the market on debut here three weeks back but she defied that and scored quite an impressive win on the heavy track when settling just off the pace and showing a lovely turn of foot. Been the three weeks to recover, she draws well and strikes another winnable race.
Long Shot: 11 Globally (Bet Now: $18.00) is the big watch here. Rex Lipp trained youngster that is on debut here off the back of no trials, but is well bred and I do like that the stable could have sent her around on a provincial track or an easier race, but instead they debut here. Big market watch for mine here.
Race Three (13:17) : Mandate Princess Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Candika (Bet Now: $1.70) looks one of the better bets on the program. On the back up after racing last Saturday over 1350m here where she did an enormous job against the bias, working home with real purpose to run a close up third. The mile looks perfect and is back to her own age/sex. Looks the winner.
Big Danger: 2 Our Beebee (Bet Now: $4.50) comes through the same race as Candika and I think you have to always forgive a good horse for one poor run, and that should be the case with this filly. The track was against her and not many runners made ground where she was, so I think just put a line through the run. On her previous form, she’s right in this.
Long Shot: 5 Benfica Princess (Bet Now: $18.00) resumed against the older horses in a Class 3 at the Sunny Coast a tick under two weeks back and worked home with purpose late to run fifth to Kapgun. You only have to back to the Summer to see that she performed quite well in some strong races. Look for her to work home late.
Race Four (13:52) : Mandate Handicap (Class 6) 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Land Office (Bet Now: $1.75) can be a bit tricky to follow at times but I think he has been good in two runs this time in. The latest of those came over 1200m at Toowoomba a fortnight back where he sat near the speed ad fought on well in defeat behind the talented sprinter Quatronic. Third up, so he should be ready fitness wise and he bolted up at this track/distance third up last time in. Looks a standout now with the scratchings.
Big Danger: 1 Allknight Saint (Bet Now: $7.50) is a quality animal that resumes here for the Brad Herne yard. Ran a couple of ripping races during the Summer, including a close up ninth in the Recognition behind Group l performer Cylinder Beach. No trials leading in, and not the greatest of fresh records, but Lloyd is booked and outside Land Office, this field is weak.
Long Shot: 5 Vienna Royale (Bet Now: $8.50) isn’t one to follow with confidence, but with the scratchings, she does have upset claims. Was four weeks between runs when racing at Toowoomba where she did a power of work from the wide gate to lead and just faded late. She should lead these for fun I think and with only 52.5kg on her back, she might take some running down.
Race Five (14:28) : Mandate Ascot Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: Pretty confident here on 4 In His Stride (Bet Now: $5.00). This talented galloper rises in grade but there was alot to like about his last start effort at this trip at Toowoomba where he got a mile back but finished off with real purpose to run second to the talented sprinter Quatronic. Destined to win a Stakes race and he gets his chance here.
Big Danger: 3 Irish Constabulary (Bet Now: $4.80) was one of the real finds during the Summer Carnival, highlighted by a brilliant win in the Magic Millions Country Cup. Resumes here off the back of no trials, so fitness levels are unknown, but he does go well fresh and has a great record when racing at Doomben.
Long Shot: 7 Hi I’m Back (Bet Now: $12.00) put together three very good efforts this time in before going to Toowoomba where he just settled too far back in the run and couldn’t really come on when finishing midfield behind Tailevent. Rises in depth/grade here, but he does have the fitness edge and loves Doomben.
Race Six (15:07) : Mandate Mick Dittman Plate 1050m:
Back Me: This race really is all about 2 Guard Of Honour (Bet Now: $4.20). If Kris Lees has him anywhere near right, he probably wins, but given he may have bigger fish to fry, his fitness levels are a question mark. Still, his trial effort looked very sharp to the eye and he ran time. Best horse in the race so I’ll bank on class getting him home.
Big Danger: 10 All Over Bosanova (Bet Now: $3.10) was the real find during the Brisbane Summer and was immediately marked down as a horse who could measure up during the Carnival. Four from four and each time she has spanked her rivals and run time. No trials, but she seems sharp enough to put that worry to bed.
Long Shot: 1 Ringo’s A Rockstar (Bet Now: $11.00) is a very good three year old that resumes for the Norm Stephens yard. He was another find during the Brisbane Summer, producing some outstanding efforts throughout the prep but perhaps raced like a tired horse towards the end. 1050m is short of his best, but if they go mad in front, this is the horse to look for.
Race Seven (15:47) : Mandate Tails Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Single Gaze (Bet Now: $4.80) on top for me here. Quality mare for Nick Olive who has been given a month freshen up since racing in the Neville Sellwood (2000m) where she tried hard and wasn’t far away when third to Assign. Little break between runs should do her the world of good, and she has class/quality on her side.
Big Danger: 3 Jumbo Prince (Bet Now: $10.00) is a quality middle distance galloper that had good market support first up in the Weetwood at Toowoomba and he did look in a spot of bother on the home turn, but once he found clear air, he really savaged the line to dead heat with Col N Lil. Should only come on from that and has a fab second up record.
Long Shot: 9 Maryore (Bet Now: $15.00) was the real find of the Provincial Championships. Produced a brilliant finishing burst to win the Kembla Qualifier at Goulburn before going to the Final where she did the exact same thing, but this time was even more impressive. Toughest test to date here, but while she is in this kind of form, why not tackle blacktype.
Race Eight (16:27) : Mandate Handicap (80) 1350m:
Back Me: 15 Shipwrecked (Bet Now: $3.50) on top for me in the get out stakes. Talented gelding for Tony Gollan that was three weeks between runs when racing at Toowoomba where he had a charmed run off the speed and looked the winner most of the straight but couldn’t hold out the finishing burst of the above average Cantbuybetter. Draws a lovely gate here and should be close to peak fitness.
Big Danger: 13 Kuznetsova (Bet Now: $2.70) was a drifter in the market when racing at Toowoomba last time out and she did look in trouble in the run but once Lloyd clicked her up and gave her clear air out wide, she really finished off with purpose to get the win on the board. Harder here, but draws well and Lloyd sticks.
Long Shot: 16 Eventide (Bet Now: $41.00) has been excellent in two runs back from a break for the Tom Button camp at Rockhampton. Won well first up on her home track before being nommed for Toowoomba. Scratched there and instead ran at Yeppoon where she was very impressive to the eye. Confident she can measure up here at odds.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 4 In His Stride
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Candika
VALUE: Race Seven Number 2 Single Gaze
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4, 10
Leg Two: 1, 2, 6, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9
Leg Four: 5, 7, 13, 15, 16
$50 Investment= 7.14% of the dividend if successful
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