The Tassie Racing Carnival reaches its climax and conclusion on Wednesday at Launceston where it is Launceston Cup Day, a ten race card filled with decent quality. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:03) : Finance Brokers Of Tasmania Maiden 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Weekend Whisky (Best Odds: $3.50) for me here in a really tricky maiden event. She hasn’t raced for 31 days since debuting over 1100m at Hobart where she surprisingly started juicy odds and to her credit, she defied that and gave a really good kick in the straight but she wandered late and that probably cost her. Should take improvement from that and I can see her taking care of the gate with her early pace.
Big Danger: 12 Miss Two Pairs (Best Odds: $4.80) is on the back up after racing in the 3YO Magic Millions race on Wednesday night here where she sat on speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when running third to Happy Halloween. Gets Ben Allen riding, and he is one of the best apprentices in the business, so that jockey change can only be a positive.
Long Shot: 13 Monobrow (Best Odds: $14.00) ran over 1100m at Hobart last time out where she was pretty solid in betting and tried hard but perhaps just did a touch too much work on speed when tiring late to run third to Millmount. I think if she can get cover and have the last say rather than being the hunted, she’ll take some beating.
Race Two (12:38) : Rosevears Hotel Handicap (62) 2400m:
Back Me: 3 The Princeling (Best Odds: $6.50) for me at a price here. Came with a well timed run to win on Boxing Day on the Devonport Synthetic but since then, he hasn’t quite set the world on fire, but in saying that, he did run in the Hobart Cup last start, where he was clearly outclassed. This looks more his go and rates highly for me here.
Big Danger: 2 Gold Librettist (Best Odds: $2.80) did a really good job in defeat last time out over 2100m at Hobart given he had to drag the field up to the tearaway leader, and by the time he did that, the eventual winner Big Pegg had the suck run, peeled out and finished too good for him. Just needs better luck to go close.
Long Shot: 5 Divine Denona (Best Odds: $6.50) is the big watch here. Former Shea Eden galloper that is now with the Brunton camp. Hasn’t raced for 40 days since finishing last over 3000m on a bog Cranbourne surface. Form prior was okay, and we know the record the stable has with new acquisitions.
Race Three (13:13) : Toll Tasmania Class One/Maiden Plate 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Banca Boy (Best Odds: $3.30) is a sparingly raced gelding who is putting together a nice little record at the moment. He ran on February 15 over 1400m at Launceston where he got back with no cover yet looked to travel well throughout. Took the lead and looked home but was bloused late by stablemate Winston Wolfe. Up to the mile should suit and he does tend to race better at Launceston.
Big Danger: 5 Matiano (Best Odds: $4.40) would have been on top but I think he should have done a bit more when racing over the mile this track/distance a couple of Wednesday nights back where he had a suck run back in the field before getting a split near the inside and he looked to travel well, but he couldn’t finish it off. Does leave me with some reservations about a strong mile, but I’ll take him on trust.
Long Shot: 7 Westwood (Best Odds: $19.00) ran over 1400m here three weeks back where I did a really good job to break the maiden tag given he was wide no cover for most of the trip and had every right to drop out, but he kept finding and finished best. On that effort, you’d have to think he will appreciate the 1600m and provided he gets cover, he’ll be a threat for sure.
Race Four (13:48) : CRE Solutions Handicap (Class 1) 1400m:
Back Me: 4 No Money No Honey (Best Odds: $1.75) looked to trial really well at Longford prior to resuming at Hobart where she sat back in the run before Pires gave her clear air and she really attacked the line to win impressively. She can sit closer for sure from the good draw and she has enormous upside.
Big Danger: 3 Khatun (Best Odds: $5.00) is a smart three year old filly that will love the drop back in depth after contesting the Thousand Guineas and Strutt Stakes at her past two, both times finishing behind Hot Dipped. Tried her as a stayer, but she simply isn’t that. 1400m is her distance and she has the form on the board.
Long Shot: 14 Slinky Malinky (Best Odds: $19.00) ran over 1400m at Hobart last start where she started long odds but she almost pulled off the boilover given she ran along in front and gave a really good kick for her supporters but she was no match late for the swooper that was Winston Wolfe. Looks to be more pressure here, but I have to include her off that last start effort.
Race Five (14:27) : PFD Food Services 3YO Classic 1200m:
Back Me: Giving 2 Chillout (Best Odds: $3.10) the nod here in a really tough/even three year old race. He ran in the Carbine Club (1100m) at Hobart where he copped abit of pressure on speed and though he gave a kick early on in the straight, he was no match late for Gee Gee Double Gee. Gets a 3kg weight swing on that horse here and loves Launceston. Confident he can turn the tables.
Big Danger: 1 Gee Gee Double Gee (Best Odds: $2.30) won that race mentioned above and really, it was down to a peach of a steer from Siggy Carr, who had the horse stalking the leaders before just waiting and waiting to peel. When she did, it was game over. The weight rise is the obvious query, and he won’t get the same favours he did at Hobart. Still, a leading contender.
Long Shot: 6 Kenfromthebar (Best Odds: $15.00) is the interesting runner here. First starter for the Stevenson camp who could have easily ran in the maiden, but they elect to tackle some above average types here. Two trials to prepare, both at Longford, and both times he has looked okay. Defiite market watch.
Race Six (15:05) : Steve’s Liquor Gold Sovereign 1200m:
Back Me: 12 Peristrophe (Best Odds: $5.00) clearly on top for me here. She debuted over 1000m at the Valley where she sat off the pace before before peeling wide on the turn and tried to make ground but just couldn’t behind Something Violet in what should be a strong form race. Stable don’t send them away for a holiday. The one to beat.
Big Danger: 5 Heaven’s Delight (Best Odds: $4.00) is on the quick back up after debuting in the Magic Millions here last Wednesday night where she was given a peach from Moor to sit near the pace and fight on superbly for an impressive first up win. Looks to map well given the speed she showed last week, and she rates highly to my eye.
Long Shot: 7 Gee Gee Lanett (Best Odds: $7.50) resumed in the Elwick Stakes at Hobart where Siggy Carr had the filly parked right behind the speed and once she got clear air, she looked the winner for a few strides but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Pateena Arena. Got the run under the belt now and draws a lovely gate.
Race Seven (15:42) : City Of Launceston Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Gee Gees Jet (Best Odds: $7.00) is an absolute ripper for the Stuart Gandy yard. He comes through the open handicap over 1100m at Hobart on February 5 where he sat near the speed before Carr made the move and the horse quickly moved up to them and ended up drawing clear for a dominant win. Draws a lovely gate and has a fab record at Launceston.
Big Danger: 5 Valiant Warrior (Best Odds: $10.00) has been a real flop in his four year old season after such great promise last season where he was considered good enough to run in Stakes races in Melbourne. That is the level he can get to, but he has been really disappointing this time in, the latest coming in the same race as the pair above him where he couldn’t come on. Saves his best for Launceston though, so that could be his saving grace.
Long Shot: 4 Issawi (Best Odds: $14.00) was resuming in that race mentioned above and he ran along in front, seemingly looking to travel well in front, but his condition just gave out in the straight. Stable have dominated this afternoon in recent years and this bloke, though drawn wide, has the right recipe to run a ripper here.
Race Eight (16:17) : Luxbet Launceston Cup 2400m:
Back Me: 4 Big Duke (Best Odds: $2.25) is at $2.50 and I am happy to take that. He did a really good job in defeat I thought in the Hobart Cup given he was well back in the run whereas the winner was near the speed, on level weights and kicked away, setting up the margin and was strong to the line. Big Duke was sound, but no match. He gets a significant weight pull on that horse and Ben Allen, who rode the horse very well previously, takes the ride.
Big Danger: 2 Count Da Vinci (Best Odds: $3.90) was the dominant winner of the Hobart Cup, and he was very strong to the line under Pires and gave nothing a look in over the final 200m. He does rise in weight, but recent history says that the weight rise isn’t a big concern, as we saw last year with Up Cups. Has to be rated highly.
Long Shot: 9 Unfurl (Best Odds: $7.50) is the unknown here. Stablemate of Big Duke who is untried at this trip and rises in grade but has the Weir/Yendall factor. She ran over 2000m at Caulfield on Australia Day where she looked to be doing nothing but her last 200m was outstanding as she really savaged the line. Form has held up via Hot Ruby and on that effort, she’ll have to appreciate the 2400m.
Race Nine (17:04) : Luxbet Mowbray Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 2 Hellova Street (Best Odds: $2.30) for me to retain his margin over Admiral. This pair clashed in the Thomas Lyons and it was an epic. Hellova Street sat on speed and had the break on Admiral, and that pretty much won the race for the Brunton horse. Maps well once again and is the one to beat for sure.
Big Danger: 1 Admiral (Best Odds: $2.20) is the pride and joy of Tassie racing but his title as the best horse in Tasmania is under threat. Hellova Street is closing the gap on him and did beat him fair and square to my eye in the Thomas Lyons. The worry is Brendon McCoull. The last six rides he has had on the horse have been defeats. Funnily enough, they have been his last six defeats.
Long Shot: 4 Streetwise Savoire (Best Odds: $34.00) is back with the Brunton camp after a successful stint with Patrick Payne. He has had two runs back now for Brunton, starting off behind Admiral in the Luxbet before making up ground late behind Hellova Street in the Thomas Lyons. Doubt he can win, but a must for exotics.
Race Ten (17:45) : McKillops Insurance Brokers Handicap (Class 3) 1600m:
Back Me: 5 Kompressor (Best Odds: $7.50) for me in the get out. Most of these come through a mile race at Hobart won by Speed Force, and Kompressor was one of the better runs in the race. He came from a mile back in the run and was given an impossible task but finished off with real purpose. I don’t think that will happen here, and hopefully he gets the drag up and ambushes.
Big Danger: 1 Zatacla (Best Odds: $4.80) trotted up over the Hobart mile before racing in the Speed Force race where he was near the speed and looked to travel okay in the run but just couldn’t finish it off. Speed Force had no luck on Sunday, so the form reads well and I think he took will get back from the gate and launch late.
Long Shot: 14 New Vision (Best Odds: $21.00) has been given a 42 day freshen up since racing on Devonport Cup Day over the mile where he got too far back in the run on a track that does suit those near the speed, but she did a pretty good job to finish as close as she did. The break tells me they have targeted this race, she has an okay record here, good speed in front of her and Daniel Moor steers.
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 2 Hellova Street
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 4 Big Duke
VALUE: Race Ten Number 5 Kompressor
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 5, 8
Leg Two: 2, 4, 8, 9
Leg Three: 1, 2
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 14
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