The Carnival at Ascot continues to gather momentum this Saturday with a strong eight race card, highlighted by the $100,000 Listed Belgravia Stakes (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (15:59) : Savanna Home Loans Handicap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Astronomite (Bet Now: $2.10) is another one of these rising four year old stars for the Williams/Peters combination. He was very impressive during the Winter, winning three on the bounce. Recent trial win was outstanding and I think he can win this and progress to better things.
Big Danger: 6 More Aces (Bet Now: $9.00) ran at the midweeks over 1000m at Belmont last time out were he sat on speed and fought on very strongly to score a narrow but impressive victory. He has race fitness on his side as well as tactical speed. He will be in it for a long way.
Roughie: 4 Krakka Vision (Bet Now: $4.60) resumed at Bunbury last Wednesday where he was well in the market and was quite sharp in getting the win given he was off the pace most of the way before presenting at the right and his turn of foot was very good.
Race Two (16:39) : Myattsfield Wineyards Handicap (1MW) 1800m:
Back Me: 5 Lone Sailor (Bet Now: $4.00) is a sparingly raced five year old who is building up a tidy record. He has won two of his four starts, the latest coming last Thursday at Northam where he toughed it out strongly to win. 1800m in town is no issue and he rates quite highly.
Big Danger: 4 Magic Rocket (Bet Now: $6.50) was second up when racing at Northam last time out where was well backed late in the piece and the support was justified as he got the job done. Performed well in town last time in and he has upside.
Roughie: 6 The Forgotten One (Bet Now: $7.00) ran over the mile at Bunbury last Wednesday in what looked a hot race and he was pretty good. He sat back in the run and worked home with purpose late behind a handy one in Prying Tom. Up to 1800m on a big track should suit.
Race Three (17:32) : Lavazza Handicap (72+) 2200m:
Back Me: Sticking fat with 2 Charlestown (Bet Now: $2.25). He ran last Wednesday at Bunbury where he got a long way back in the run before chasing hard all the way but couldn’t quite reel in Kirov Boy. Gets a really good weight pull here and looks the winner.
Big Danger: 8 Cougar Nights (Bet Now: $4.20) ran third in the Kirov Boy race and his effort was tidy. He was behind Charlestown most of the way and pretty much stayed there but it was a solid performance. He has a good record at Ascot and 2200m at the track is suitable.
Roughie: 5 Fulgur (Bet Now: $21.00) also comes through the Kirov Boy race where he sat midfield in the run and didn’t really improve from there but it was still alright. He hasn’t won for a long long time, but the small field may see him sneak a place.
Race Four (18:05) : Rentokil Initial Handicap (66+) 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Coming Back (Bet Now: $1.75) resumed at Bunbury last Wednesday and came with a well timed run from the back to get the job done over a potential top liner in Scales Of Justice. Should only improve off that, gate one and the claim for Randy Tan helps.
Big Danger: 3 Antique Dream (Bet Now: $8.50) resumed three weeks back over 1000m at Belmont where she got back in the run and just stayed there behind Gigante in what looked a pretty disappointing effort but we know she is better than that. Sharp improver if she finds her best.
Roughie: 2 Lenience (Bet Now: $11.00) has been given a six week freshen up since racing over 1000m at Belmont where he ran okay without setting the world on fire behind Flying Roar. He will do no work from the soft draw and can be a contender.
Race Five (18:40) : LWP Property Group Plate 1500m:
Back Me: 7 Final Salute (Bet Now: $3.00) resumed over 1300m at Northam last Thursday where Pike gave him the sweet trip just off speed before presenting on the turn and going on with it to win quite impressively. Up to 1500m is ideal and she should only improve.
Big Danger: 3 Chill The Champers (Bet Now: $10.00) debuted at Belmont in late July where he had late market support at a price and the punters got it right as he sat on speed and fought on strongly to get the win. Looked to trial well recently and is in the right stable.
Roughie: 4 One Short (Bet Now: $9.50) ran over 1200m at Bunbury last Wednesday in a 1MW race against the older horses where he sat back in the run and closed off pretty well late in the piece behind Krakka Vision, who goes around as a threat in the opener. Up to 1500m suits, has upside and stable have a very good record with their younger horses.
Race Six (19:15) : Amelia Park Handicap (72+) 1000m:
Back Me: 6 King River (Bet Now: $2.30) is an above average type that resumed at Bunbury last Wednesday where he sat off the speed and was off the bit a fair way out but once he balanced up, he really attacked the line and won with real class and authority. A repeat performance will see him just about win again.
Big Danger: 2 Agachar Cruz (Bet Now: $3.40) ran three weeks ago over 1000m at Belmont where he sat back near last in the run and producing a brilliant finishing burst out wide and full of momentum to win. More depth here but is a very likely type.
Roughie: 8 Travellin’ (Bet Now: $13.00) has been given a six week freshen up since racing ove the short course at Belmont where he was off the bit a long way from home and couldn’t really pick up late behind Pretentious Chant. He is much better than that and can be a knockout chance if he finds any sign of his best.
Race Seven (19:50) : Arlec Australia Belgravia Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Get Over It (Bet Now: $4.20) is a potential star that resumes for the Trevor Andrews yard. He raced twice during the Winter and produced a brilliant turn of foot from off the pace at each outing to win. Trial win leading up to his return has been fantastic and he will take a stack of beating.
Big Danger: 1 The River (Bet Now: $14.00) resumed at Bunbury last Wednesday where I thought he was pretty good in defeat given he was back and wide in the run with big weight yet he still made up pretty good ground late. He should take good benefit from that and has class.
Roughie: 2 The Celt (Bet Now: $4.40) resumes here after a four run Winter prep, which started with two seconds followed by two dominant on speed wins. Has to translate that to Ascot and at this level, but he has residual fitness and tactical speed.
Race Eight (20:30) : Muscular Dystrophy WA Handicap (72+) 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Universal Law (Bet Now: $4.40) resumed over 1000m at Belmont three weeks ago where he sat back in the run and closed off well without threatening when third to Gigante. Hopefully he has more zip in his legs, so I’ll give him another chance.
Big Danger: 7 Scales Of Justice (Bet Now: $1.90) resumed at Bunbury last Wednesday where he was odds on and it looked pretty smooth sailing in the run and he looked the winner most of the way until he was swamped late by Coming Back. Has the potential to be a Group l performer, so if that’s the case, he will go close.
Roughie: 9 Chasing Chaos (Bet Now: $21.00) also comes through the Coming Back race last week, running fifth after settling back to last in the run and working home well without threatening. He can get a suck run nearer the speed here and is a definite contender.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 4 Get Over It
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 2 Charlestown
VALUE: Race Two Number 5 Lone Sailor
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 3, 4, 5, 7
Leg Two: 2, 5, 6, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 4, 8, 11, 13
Leg Four: 5, 7
$50 Investment= 26.04% of the dividend if successful
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