22/8/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville

A ten race program has been assembled for Morphettville on Saturday. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out seven metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out three metres for the remainder.

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4 Dawn Salute (Bet Now: $7.50) is a David Jolly trained gelding that should love the rise to 1100m and sitting off a fast speed. Sat off a good speed when resuming over 1000m at Murray Bridge and worked home strongly when third to Ready Sunshine. Looked the winner but I think his condition just gave out late. Fitter, hard to beat.

2 Tanker (Bet Now: $5.00) should be suited up to 1100m, but this well and truly D-Day to determine if he’s indeed a Stakes class horse, or is he a level below it. Resumed over 1000m at the Valley three weeks ago where he sat back in the run and closed off just fair without really threatening behind Hard Landing. Like the extra 100m. His best is good enough.

7 Outpost (Bet Now: $8.50) is a David Tootell trained gelding that is on the seven day back up after racing here last Saturday where I specked him at big odds and I thought he ran very well when third to Sonic Deed. Was there to win, but couldn’t finish the job, so backing up I do like, hard fit and racing well. Hard to beat.

Going to have a throw at the stumps via 7 Jonquest (Bet Now: $11.00), a Rebel Raider colt on debut for the Macdonald/Gluyas team. This bloke has had just the one jumpout this prep to get ready for the debut and I thought he closed off really well to run fourth, albeit was ridden out, but at least he responded to riding, which I like to see from an unraced youngster.

3 Hard Border (Bet Now: $3.90) is a son of All Too Hard that was with Robert Hickmott but now finds himself with Team Jolly. Showed decent promise in two career outings before being sent to the Jolly camp. Won a Balaklava and although pushed out, did respond and won in solid time. Keen to see how he goes in his first run for the new stable.

4 Malvado (Bet Now: $13.00) has had a few chances to break the maiden for Ryan Balfour. Was 1200m back to 1000m last time out at Balaklava where he got back off the speed and worked home pretty well without threatening. Think the rise back up to 1200m suits. Looks a couple of promising types, so not sure I could back him to win, but is one for exotics.

I’ll take a chance on 12 Victoria Quay (Bet Now: $3.60), who looks a lovely mover for Team McEvoy. Daughter of Dundeel that trialled a couple of weeks back at Balaklava and although ran third, beaten just under seven lengths, she looked to move very sweetly under a hold and had plenty in hand. Think she might be pretty good and can make a winning debut.

11 Pimm’s Party (Bet Now: $3.20) is a daughter of Street Boss that is on debut for the Macdonald/Gluyas team. This girl has only had the one trial to get ready for start one, which came at Balaklava a couple of weeks ago, and I thought she went about her business quite well when third to The Multiplier. Keen to see how she goes.

9 Scarlet River (Bet Now: $9.50) is a watch horse here for sure. Ryan Balfour trained daughter of Host that is on debut. Can’t find a jumpout for her, so it’s a guessing game, but she has gate one to use and I dare say Dom Tourneur would have had a few options here re a ride, and he goes with this girl, so watch the market.

The significant weight drop and the back up are two big ticks for the Travis Doudle trained 6 Analytica (Bet Now: $2.30), so I’ll go his way. He ran over this track/distance last Saturday where he lumped 61.5kg and looked to be going well but couldn’t get a chance to build the revs and should have gone close to winning. Gets down to 54kg, hard fit, in form…hard to beat.

2 Aristocratic Miss (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Team McEvoy trained mare that resumed in the Nipperkin race from Murray Bridge a fortnight ago where I don’t think much went her way and should have finished a bit closer in the finish. Good return from her and up in trip with the run under the belt, she’s a leading contender.

4 More Than Ever (Bet Now: $7.00) will be better suited at 2000m+ but he’s a touch of class/quality so including him here. Resumed over 1400m at Murray Bridge and had late specking at odds, with Vorster riding him over stablemates. He stuck on and I think was a pass mark, but maybe could have done a touch more. Up to 1600m, keen to see how he goes.

Giving respect to 2 Peloton (Bet Now: $4.00) for the Michael Hickmott team. Former Kiwi that made his Australian debut at Murray Bridge a fortnight back where he kicked up to lead under Jess Eaton, and gave a decent kick in the straight, but condition just gave out late when fifth to Nipperkin. Fitter, up to 1500m, he’ll take some beating.

Very interesting that 3 Zero Doubt (Bet Now: $6.00) comes here. Price/Kent trained gelding that should welcome the drop in depth after racing at Flemington two weeks ago when off the speed and couldn’t really get into the race when down the track behind Jittery Jack. Being by Not A Single Doubt, he should swim, and his best is clearly good enough.

Mick Kluske has 5 Going Gaga (Bet Now: $8.00) working up to a win. Ran over the mile here last Saturday and I loved the way he closed off late when a close up third to the in form Blow Torch. It’s a mixed bag with this horse when it comes to the seven day back up, but off the run last Saturday, he’ll take a power of beating here.

The speed should be on in front, so looking for a closer, and 2 Fancy Rumble (Bet Now: $15.00) will be a closer. Ran over 1200m at Murray Bridge a fortnight back and worked home strongly from off the pace behind Ruler By Choice. Gets a 5.5kg weight swing on that horse here and draws to get a good run off the speed. Hard to beat I think.

3 Ruler By Choice (Bet Now: $2.00) is a daughter of Choisir for Team McEvoy that has been in two runs back from a spell. Closed off strongly fresh on Mildura Cup Day at Swan Hill before going to Murray Bridge where Vorster was aggressive on the mare early on in the straight, building the revs and was too good for Nasifa. Got upside to come and is a leading chance.

5 Exalted Lauretta (Bet Now: $12.00) is a beauty for Grant Young. Thought she was very good in defeat at Murray Bridge last time out when doing plenty of work from the wide gate to get on speed and was entitled to drop away but kept finding and was game when running fourth. If she can get on speed without doing as much work, she’ll take some beating at odds.

Hold your breath I think when it comes to 1 Domination (Bet Now: $5.50). He’s a beauty for Grant Young who only knows one way to run and he’ll look the winner for a long way. Just needs to hold on for the last 100m. Was very good in defeat when leading at Murray Bridge two weeks ago when second to Star Hills. That was 78 grade. Now back to 58 grade, he’s hard to beat.

9 Nicconi Poni (Bet Now: $4.00) would love a drying deck, but with rain forecast for most of the week, doubt she’ll get it. Former Mitch Beer trained mare that had her first run for Will Clarken when hard in the market and on the turn, it looked race over, but as soon as Pannell asked for an effort, the wheels started spinning on the track. If the track somewhat is in the good range, she’s hard to beat.

8 Unbounded (Bet Now: $9.50) is now in SA for Phillip Stokes and does like wet ground, so can be a definite improver at odds. Hasn’t raced since July 7 when down the track on the Ballarat Synthetic. Has placed on heavy ground, so if the rain does come, it won’t hurt her chances, so think she’s a knockout chance at odds.

1 Dr Dependable (Bet Now: $9.00) is better suited over a bit further, like a few engaged here, but he looks to be in for a really good prep. Ran over 1400m at Murray Bridge two weeks in a similar race when doing a bit of work from the wide gate but he stuck and was really good in defeat, finishing third to Nipperkin. Up to 1800m I like and with better luck this time around, he can take this out.

8 Resurge (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Team McEvoy trained gelding that according to betting had three legs when resuming at Murray Bridge a fortnight back, drifting to $4+ after being as short as $2.20, but nobody told the horse that, as he really lifted late under Jess Eaton to get up and win. If there’s improvement off that, hard to beat against these.

The best version of 2 Jaguary (Bet Now: $17.00) is certainly capable. Just not sure what to make of his resumption at Murray Bridge. Got back in the run and seemed to get a decent enough trip in transit, but failed to fire a shot and didn’t come at all. Fitter and up in trip are the two big ticks. Hopefully he can run an improved race.

10 The Olympian (Bet Now: $5.50) is still a maiden but has less convictions than most and on breeding, he should eat up the mile here. Ran over 1250m in a maiden on the Parks track three weeks ago and battled away well but no match for a speedy horse, Double Blue. Think the rise in trip suits and overall, this is a weak 58 race.

1 Cannot Be Serios (Bet Now: $6.00) loves wet ground and is getting hard fit now, so he’s a definite threat. Attempted to lead throughout at Naracoorte last Wednesday and gave a really good kick from the front, but was swamped late by Dr Dee Dee, who is a handy galloper, so the form isn’t too bad, and this guy is a proven Saturday performer.

8 Aliris (Bet Now: $18.00) is a knockout chance at odds. Comes through the Resurge race from two weeks back at Murray Bridge where he did a bit of work from the wide gate and was entitled to probably drop away late, but he kept finding and was really good in defeat, finishing fourth. Fitter, he’s likeable here at a price.

This race has really fallen away after scratchings, so with that, I’m giving 4 Jacobite Prince (Bet Now: $2.50) one more chance. I was really keen on him three weeks ago on the Parks track but he did zero from the front and was terrible behind Left Hand Man. I think 1200m is more his go, and he’s 3/4 on wet ground. Strikes a very winnable race.

3 Extreme Thrill (Bet Now: $6.50) can run an improved race at odds. Had a freshen up after failing behind Arkham Knight and tuned up with a trial leading into his run four weeks ago here where he got back and was okay late but never really a winning threat behind Octane, who does look Stakes class. No horse of that class here and back to 68 grade, he’s likeable.

1 This Kid Rocks (Bet Now: $6.50) is a veteran who has seen better days and they are behind him, but at this level, I think he’s a must for multiples. Given a 12/10 ride by Caitlin Jones at Murray Bridge two weeks ago and looked the winner for a couple of strides, but couldn’t quite finish it off. Couldn’t back him to win, but certainly goes in multiples.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 4 Jacobite Prince

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 12 Victoria Quay

LONG SHOT: Race Six Number 2 Fancy Rumble

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 8, 9

Leg Two: 1, 2, 8, 10

Leg Three: 1, 2, 8, 10

Leg Four: 4

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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