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The Belmont Winter Carnival continues on Saturday where it is Blue Spec Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out twelve metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (13:51) GO RACING BEFORE THE FOOTY MDN 1200m

Back Me

I’ll take a chance with 4 Barnsley Boy (Bet Now: $19.00). He ran in a 1200m maiden here last Wednesday where he had a good run early, but then the saddle shifted and that was the end of his chances. Previous efforts at Pinjarra weren’t too bad and overall, this is one of the weakest Saturday maiden races I’ve come across, so he doesn’t need to be anything special to go close.

Danger

2 Enduring Moment (Bet Now: $2.80) is working up to a maiden win. Both runs this time in have come over 1000m here, the latest coming two weeks ago when wide with cover before blending into the race nicely and looking home, but was nabbed near the peg by Foxhood. Previously failed at 1200m, but is racing as if it will be fine.

Long Shot

8 Miss Brighton (Bet Now: $14.00) will likely lead this field up and give a sight at odds. Ran over 1300m in a Pinjarra maiden last time out when leading and she gave a pretty decent kick after having control and only felt the pinch late. Back to 1200m I do like, should land near the speed again and give plenty of cheeky at a price.

Race 2. (14:31) TABTOUCH WESTSPEED (RS0MW) 1400m

Back Me

3 Playing Marika (Bet Now: $3.30) is knocking on the door to win one. Last couple of runs have come over 1400m, two back closing off strongly to run a close up third before coming here where he got back and found the line nicely at the end. If he can sit that little bit closer in the run, he’ll be hard to hold out at the end. In his corner.

Danger

4 Comfort Me (Bet Now: $3.10) is a son of Playing God for the Rhys Radford team that should be suited up to 1400m. He ran over 1300m here last Wednesday when getting the lovely sit just off the speed before finding clear air and he looked home when Staples shot him through the gap, but couldn’t quite finish it off when second to Simonelly. If he can lead and get control, he’ll be hard to beat.

Long Shot

Back to 1400m is interesting with 8 Stella Anne (Bet Now: $11.00). This mare ran over 1700m here back on August 5 when getting a suck run on the fence before pushing her way into clear and I thought she had her chance, but far from disgraced in defeat when fourth to Hoolahoops. Gets a soft run again from the gate and is one for multiples.

Race 3. (15:11) ALL FLAGS SIGNS&BANNERS-BM72+ 2000m

Back Me

Provided last Saturday hasn’t busted her, 7 Montelena (Bet Now: $1.70) is the winner I think. Very progressive mare for the Mcauliffe team that produced the win of the meeting when racing here last Saturday. Bombed the start by a few lengths but still produced the goods, giving them a start and a beating. Off that, eats up 2000m and overall, this race isn’t strong.

Danger

4 Gunnago (Bet Now: $8.00) is racing as if he will appreciate a rise to 2000m for the Jason Pateman team. Impressive winner two back at Northam before racing here two weeks ago and worked home okay late when fourth to Fuhrer. He’s racing as if he will handle a rise to 2000m and is holding his form really well at the moment.

Long Shot

5 Black Shadow (Bet Now: $6.00) is suited up to 2000m for Jim Taylor. Is fourth up here with plenty of upside to come. Ran over the mile here a fortnight back in the Fuhrer race. He was there to be a winning threat 300m out but didn’t quite have the speed in the legs to finish it off. Like him up in trip and has got more upside than most.

Race 4. (15:51) PENINSULA DINING ROOM PLATE 1000m

Back Me

I’ve always been a fan of 9 Just A Pinch (Bet Now: $8.00) so I’ll lean her way fresh. Daughter of Gingerbread Man for the Casey stable that resumes, having not raced since the Autumn where she produced a debut win before being down the track with shin soreness and was spelled. Just one soft 400m trial leading in, so market will be the guide, but she does look a decent 1000m horse.

Danger

Class will carry 3 Dark Assault (Bet Now: $5.00) a long way. Roy Rogers trained colt that resumes, having not raced since the Karrakatta Plate when surprising most at big odds when a close up third, and perhaps a little unlucky after getting held up for a couple of strides. No public trials, but he’s got the runs on the board to be respected.

Long Shot

10 Miss Livinia (Bet Now: $11.00) is a daughter of Brazen Beau for Simon Miller that is on debut. She’s had the benefit of two trials this prep to get ready for start one, the latest of those coming last week at Lark Hill over 1100m when running third, so she’s had a decent grounding for a 1000m debut and has gate one. Knockout chance.

Race 5. (16:28) GLENROY CHAFF (BM66+) 1400m

Back Me

3 Leading Girl (Bet Now: $1.80) clearly on top for me. Daughter of Reliable Man for Team Williams that resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago and she was one of the eye catchers of the meeting, closing off with real purpose late when second to Nerodio. 2/2 when racing second up, excellent return and any hint of natural improvement, she’s too good for these.

Danger

5 Put A Spell On You (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Fred Kersley trained mare that comes through the Nerodio race mentioned above where she was wide no cover for the trip. Was entitled to drop away but kept finding and was really good in defeat when third to Nerodio. Draws much better this time around and remains down in the weights. Likeable for sure.

Long Shot

Very interesting runner is 4 Lonsdale Lady (Bet Now: $5.50), a daughter of Maschino that resumes for Kieran McDonagh. This girl surprised a few with a domiant 1000 Guineas win before going to the Natasha Stakes where it was just a bridge too far behind a quality mare, Tuscan Queen. Trial win was solid enough. Watch the market and see what it does with her.

Race 6. (17:10) DEVIL'S LAIR (RS1MW) 1650m

Back Me

Pretty keen here on 11 Sentimental Queen (Bet Now: $5.00) for Team Williams. This mare has had two runs back from a break, resuming with a maiden win at Northam before racing over 1400m here last Wednesday where she just got too far back in the run but loved the way she found the line late. Eats up 1600m and finds a winnable Saturday race.

Danger

1 Aconite (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Brett Pope trained mare that is on the seven day back up after racing at this track/distance last Saturday where I thought Troy Turner gave her a peach of a steer just off the speed and looked all over a winner, but couldn’t hold out the brilliant finale produced by Montelena. Really well in after the claim. Just whether or not she handles the back up.

Long Shot

For multiples, I’d be including the Neville Parnham trained 8 Altamount (Bet Now: $21.00). Ran over this track/distance last Wednesday where he was back in the run and a bit flat footed when the sprint went on, but picked up and was good late when third. Not sure he’s got the ability to win, but can fill a first four spot for sure.

Race 7. (17:50) AMELIA PARK-BLUE SPEC (BM78+) 1650m

Back Me

Fitter and back up to the mile, in the corner of 2 Wrinkly (Bet Now: $6.50) for the Neville Parnham team. He’s an absolute iron horse this guy, putting himself on speed and running along at a very strong clip. He did that in the Ngawyni over 1400m here two weeks ago and tried very hard but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Massimo. Was three weeks between runs then, and now up to the mile, I’ll go his way.

Danger

10 Jeraft (Bet Now: $12.00) has found really good form for Neville Parnham. Impressive win at this track/distance two back before coming back to 1400m in the Ngawyni where he was run off his legs by Wrinkly but picked up and was really good late when a closing fourth. Now back up to 1600m, hopefully can sit closer in the run.

Long Shot

For wider multiples, I’d be including 6 Pushin’ Shapes (Bet Now: $46.00). I’d love to see them ride this guy with a bit more patience because they have been riding him warm his past couple and he hasn’t done a great deal at all. Seems to race best when ridden conservatively and being saved for the straight. If that eventuates here, he can bounce back.

Race 8. (18:30) IRON JACK (BM78+) 1000m

Back Me

8 Money Matters (Bet Now: $1.95) looks the pony to bet on. Adam Durrant trained four year old that resumed over this track/distance two weeks ago when sitting near a good speed and presented in the straight to wear down We’ve Got Dreams, but that mare had hard race fitness and was too good. Money Matters comes on from that and looks really hard to beat.

Danger

6 Jericho Missile (Bet Now: $4.00) is the key threat. On the seven day back up for David Harrison after racing over 1200m here last Saturday where he got a mile back off them in the run and was never a winning threat, but loved the way he made up ground. Back to 1000m is a little query, but senior jock back on and gets gate one.

Long Shot

10 Highland Beat (Bet Now: $13.00) I could include in exotics. Had his first run for the Gangemi team in the We’ve Got Dreams race from a fortnight back at this track/distance where he had the right run just off the speed. Tried hard, but condition just gave out late when third. He’s not normally as effective second up, but new stable, new training methods, he could well improve.

Race 9. (19:10) CROWN PERTH (RS1MW) 1200m

Back Me

1 Sir Mambo (Bet Now: $4.60) doesn’t have the best of records at Belmont, but gee he finds such a winnable race to break a run of outs at the track. Was on him when he raced over 1000m here four weeks ago but was four wide no cover for the trip so forget he went around behind She’s Vital. Up to 1200m I don’t mind and has gate one. Each way all day.

Danger

10 Misty Lad (Bet Now: $20.00) is working up to a win for the David Harrison team. Ran over 1200m here on August 5 when back off the speed and was never really a winning threat, but closed off and was good in defeat I thought when third to Annihilator. The claim for Kristy Bennett certainly helps and is a third up winner. Hard to beat.

Long Shot

The best version of 6 City Circle (Bet Now: $12.00) is certainly capable of measuring up here. Ran over 1000m here on August 5 in what looked a strong 0MW race. I thought her effort was full of merit given she was wide throughout yet whacked away to run fourth, beaten 2.3L. Will need luck from the gate, but is capable if she brings her best.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Six Number 13 Sentimental Queen

NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 3 Leading Girl

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 1 Sir Mambo

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 11

Leg Two: 2, 3, 6, 10

Leg Three: 6, 8

Leg Four: 1, 4, 6, 7, 10

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