The Summer Carnival at Ascot continues this Saturday where it is Ted Van Heemst Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (17:44) Furphy Handicap 1100m
Keen to see if/how 5 Excise Free (Bet Now: $2.90) measures up. Michael Lane trains this filly, who has won her past two in brilliant fashion, leading throughout each time. Last run was down the Pinjarra straight and she absolutely bolted in, running really good time. Hopefully she can take a sit because I think leading all the way here will be a tough ask.
2 Market Ruler (Bet Now: $3.60) has to be respected. Simon Miller trained filly who was on the WA Guineas path but was freshened up to focus on the second tier races, the first of which came a fortnight back where she had a lovely run near the speed before peeling out and finishing best. Creeping up in the weights but has quality.
6 Fairview (Bet Now: $14.00) is still maiden for Sean Casey but she’s shown enough ability to date to confirm she’s a city class horse. Resumed in a Northam maiden where she was well backed and tried hard when a close up third to Forgotten Star. That was 1300m so back to 1100m is interesting, but if they go hard in front, she’ll be strong at the end I’m sure.
Race 2. (18:19) Tony Fitzgerald 70th Birthday Handicap (1MW) 1600m
I think 2 Nordic King (Bet Now: $1.55) is the main danger. Adam Durrant has this bloke going really well at the moment, winning his past couple. Latest came three weeks back over 1500m here when finishing best in a blanket finish. Looks to have decent upside and up to the mile should be fine.
4 Let’s Twist (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Team Pearce trained mare who should appreciate the step up to 1600m. Resumed over 1400m at Pinjarra where she got back to near last on the rail but got clear and made up very good ground when third to Scandal Maker. Has an outstanding second up record and from the inside gate, she should do no work. Very likeable here.
1 Barzinho (Bet Now: $17.00) is an interesting runner. Chris Gangemi trains, with this bloke three weeks between runs after finishing tailed off last in a brutally run 2100m contest won by The Big Show. Been kept on ice and freshened back to the mile. Interesting set up so I’d say watch the market and see what it does, especially with this stable who don’t mind a bet.
Race 3. (18:55) Amelia Park Handicap 1400m
I think it’s a case of good luck beating 1 Angelic Ruler (Bet Now: $2.45). Team Pearce trains this filly, who produced an outstanding finale from the back to round them up and score such an impressive win over 1200m here last Saturday. Up to 1400m no issue and she looks to have these covered. Has the weight, but does have a couple of lengths of these in terms of class for mine.
Very interested to see how 2 Assetro (Bet Now: $2.70) resumes for Adam Durrant. She promised a fair bit as a juvenile and was touted as a leading contender for the Karrakatta but didn’t quite live up to the hype. Has had one 1000m trial in readiness for her return. It would take a great training effort to get her to win fresh at 1400m but she’s got quality.
4 Archant (Bet Now: $5.00) is third pick in a race with three genuine winning chances. Ran here last Wednesday and I thought there was merit in his win. Led all the way, copped pressure yet still found plenty in the straight to fend them off. Will have to do work from the draw but hard to knock a winner, albeit against easier opposition. An outside chance with a soft lead.
Race 4. (19:30) Seppelt "The Drives" Handicap (72+) 2100m
She’s becoming costly to follow but I’m convinced the best version of 2 Like A Butterfly (Bet Now: $7.00) is good enough to beat these. Ran over 1800m here a fortnight back and was a hard luck story if you were on, getting badly held up when having something to offer, running fourth to Juicing Carrots. Up to 2100m, and drawn out, she should get clear and get her chance.
6 Press The Petal (Bet Now: $8.00) is an Adam Durrant trained mare who should run well. Given a lovely ride from Jade McNaught to win over 2200m at Northam last start, tracking the speed before getting the split and despite wanting to throw it away, the mare found under the apprentice to get the win. Pike jumps on now and this isn’t a strong race at all.
1 Dark Prospect (Bet Now: $6.50) comes through the Juicing Carrots race and I think he should be forgiven. Just had too much to do when seemingly having something to offer in a messy race and I think his run was better than it looked. Ran a close third to Queen Bey and Mississippi Delta at 2200m a few runs ago and that form does read very well for this.
Race 5. (20:05) Seacorp Handicap (66+) 1000m
Provided there is no second up syndrome, I think 7 Double Jeopardy (Bet Now: $4.00) can only run well. Formerly with Ellerton/Zahra, this bloke made his WA debut a fortnight back at this track/distance and ran a beauty in defeat I thought when second to Dam Ready after covering ground. Market said he wasn’t ready. Hope he is now..
Still not sure how 6 Alpha Sky (Bet Now: $6.00) won first up. He looked in an impossible position on the turn, seemingly going nowhere, but he managed to get an inside split, burst through and nail Shackleton on the line. Is that the right form for this? Perhaps. He’s got upside and in the right yard so I wouldn’t put a line through him here.
8 Bon Voyage (Bet Now: $9.50) can certainly win this. He comes through the Alpha Sky race where he got a mile back in the run and never really looked likely but his finale was excellent and in the end got within a length. If he’s close enough on the turn, he’s certainly got the change up speed to beat these. Just needs to not flop out the back.
Race 6. (20:40) Ted Van Heemst Stakes 2100m
There was $2.5+ offered about 7 Galaxy Star (Bet Now: $1.28) earlier in the week…I must have missed something because I think she should be a $1.50 chance. Outstanding winner of the Railway before going to the Kingston Town where she was set an impossible task but was very good late behind Arcadia Queen. Up to 2100m looks perfect and clearly is the best horse in the race. Really keen on her.
2 Gatting (Bet Now: $5.00) is next pick by default. He looks right on track for the Perth Cup after a couple of outstanding efforts in the two big ones. Ripping second to Galaxy Star in the Railway before a solid fourth from the back behind the star that is Arcadia Queen. 2100m will be no issue for him and from the gate, I wouldn’t be shocked if Lane decided to hold a forward spot near the lead.
6 Prying Tom (Bet Now: $12.00) was completely unwanted in betting when racing in the Kingston Town last time but despite starting $201, he ran a mighty race and produced some of the best late splits behind dominant winner Arcadia Queen. Looks ideally set up for the Perth Cup and can only run well here for mine. Definite watch from that race’s perspective.
Race 7. (21:15) Starstruck Classic 1600m
This looks a put in/take out job for 1 Celebrity Dream (Bet Now: $1.85). This mare dominated the series last year and she looks as if she will repeat the dose. Lovely ride from Pike saw her win with dominance and arrogance in the Jungle Dawn last time. Up to the mile no issue and I can’t see her getting beat barring bad luck.
3 Fontainebleu (Bet Now: $9.50) looks the only serious winning threat to Celebrity’s Dream if she’s off her game. She comes through the Jungle Dawn where she was second up with improvement to come and she stuck on well to run third. Up to the mile will suit and she does have upside. She could roll forward from the gate and get a decent start on the fav.
11 Sally’s Realm (Bet Now: $16.00) has got the ability to win this but sweet lord she’s got such an awful racing pattern. Got a mile off them in the Jungle Dawn last time and was never in the hunt but did make ground. I think up to 1600m might be what she’s looking for and if she can sit closer, potentially, she could be dangerous. Gets her chance from the inside gate.
Race 8. (21:50) Tabtouch Better Your Bet Handicap (1MW) 1200m
I think back to 1200m and back in depth looks an ideal recipe for 6 Moët De Vega (Bet Now: $4.50) to get the win. Looked all over a winner two back but was nutted on the line by Royal Statue before finding the 1500m too far last time. Hopefully can land on speed without doing much work and at his best, clearly the horse to beat. Happy to be with him in the get out.
4 Beat The Devil (Bet Now: $4.20) looks a progressive type for the Simon Miller team. Narrow first up win at Northam before racing at this track/distance last Wednesday where he was just so dynamic and so impressive in winning. Confident he can measure up to this lot with upside to come. Just all depends where he gets to from a potentially stick gate.
2 Danny George (Bet Now: $5.00) comes through the Alpha Sky race from a fortnight ago over 1000m here. He got back in the run and looked to travel well but when he was asked for the big effort, there was no immediate response and he just whacked away in the end. He’s better than that, so up to 1200m and from a good draw, he could well be a sharp improver at odds.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 7 Galaxy Star
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 1 Angelic Ruler
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 2 Like A Butterfly
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 6, 7, 8
Leg Two: 7
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 6, 11
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