Flemington will host Saturday’s feature Victorian meeting in what looks to be a decent card of racing despite most of the quality runners going around in either Queensland or South Australia on the weekend. The Andrew Ramsden Stakes over the Melbourne Cup distance headlines the nine race card.
Race One (11:45): Pat Hyland Plate 1400m:
Back Me: 12 Sebring Dream (Bet Now: $2.70) impressed me on debut at Flemington where she hit the line well over 1100m. The winner looks an exciting horse so the form should stack up. She will be better over this distance and when Hayes puts Walker on they are never far away.
Big Danger: 4 Cliff Hanger (Bet Now: $8.00) was another runner who attacked the line well over a shorter trip on debut. The form has stacked up with that race providing the quinella in the Donald Classic. He looks a horse with a lot of scope and the further he goes the better he will be. The stable has been flying of late and he will be right in the finish.
Roughie: 6 Gold Artisan (Bet Now: $26.00) i thought ran a good race on debut where he attacked the line well in what seems to be a decent form race. He has the Team Hawkes factor and looks to be the one at big odds who can cause an upset.
Race Two (12:20): National Hall Of Fame (bm78) 1200m:
Back Me: 6 Euston Road (Bet Now: $7.50) won well over the course and distance last start so she gets in well with the weights here only going up the 1kg. That race looked a tougher field on paper so i think he can definitely win again.
Big Danger: 2 Payroll (Bet Now: $4.80) has a stack of ability although she is coming off a long break so she will be better for the run. If she is forward enough she will go very close and even if she isn’t on raw ability she needs to be included.
Roughie: 4 Mihalic (Bet Now: $11.00) i thought opened well over the odds and the early betting suggested that which has shortened her quote into a reasonable price. She doesn’t have the best winning strike rate although she has contested some good form races where she hasn’t been far off them. She won the Maribyrnong Trial on debut and in a race of this class she needs to be included.
Race Three (12:55): Might And Power Hcp 2000m:
Back Me: 7 Turnitaround (Bet Now: $4.40) has somehow found lengths this preparation from last and he doesn’t look like getting beaten any time soon. He put them away two starts back at Flemington with that form being franked in the G2 Queen Of The South Stakes and he was devastating at the Bool last start. The only query is the distance but on his recent form the step up doesn’t look to be an issue.
Big Danger: 6 Second Bullet (Bet Now: $3.80) is such a consistent galloper who never puts in a bad run. He races on the speed and makes his own luck which is an advantage to punters. He was good first up over 1800m and will improve with the increase in distance here although his second up form isn’t the best which is a bit of a concern. The small field should see him be able to dictate the race and he will be hard to run down.
Roughie: 1 Extra Zero (Bet Now: $13.00) doesn’t win often but he loves it at Flemington and always puts in a good race. He ran second in the G1 Australian Cup over this course and distance last year and the recent outing over the jumps may have revitalised him. Wouldn’t be surprised if he won at the big odds.
Race Four (13:30): Carbine Club (bm78) 1600m:
Back Me: 11 Mr Pago (Bet Now: $11.00) looks to be at massive odds in the market. If you put a line through his last star then his form reads really well beating home Show A Star and Turnitaround two starts ago. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of pace in the race and with the claim and barrier should hopefully be able to roll forward and dictate the speed.
Big Danger: 2 Mihany (Bet Now: $10.00) was disappointing last start but i am happy to forgive that run and on previous form he rates really well here. He has a very good place record and at the odds looks to be right in this race.
Roughie: 7 Turbo Street (Bet Now: $13.00) comes from the Tony McEvoy stable which is always a good indication at Flemington with Tony having a good strike rate here. His last start run was poor but i don’t think he handled the distance, the step back to the mile will see him improve and on the three runs prior this preparation he looks to be a good winning chance at the odds.
Race Five (14:10): Les Carlyon Ac Hcp 1600m:
Back Me: 10 Sir Sagamore (Bet Now: $10.00) was disappointing last start but his run prior to that showed he wasn’t far away from a good win. This race looks to have a bit more pace in it which will help and the mile should also so an improved run. I thought he may have gone for a spell after last start but the stable is always a good judge and if they have decided to race him again they must have some confidence. On paper it looks a tough race with plenty of value on offer.
Big Danger: 2 Shockaholic (Bet Now: $5.00) won what looks to be the best form race leading in here and his win suggested the step up in distance will only see him improve. He gets in very well with the claim and will be hard to beat.
Roughie: 3 Un De Sceaux (Bet Now: $11.00) hit the line too well two starts ago to beat my on top selection over the 1400m at Flemington so he must be included in the selections. Last start was an okay run, the drop in weights will certainly help as will the step up in distance i feel.
Race Six (14:50) : Neville Begg (bm84) 1800m:
Back Me: 15 Iron Boss (Bet Now: $21.00) is a lightly raced galloper from the Mark Kavanagh yard who i feel has a stack of upside. This race doesn’t look to have a lot of depth so at the odds i think he looks to be a solid each way bet. His run at Sandown was good last start and he will be better over further. He beat a quality maiden field last year at Geelong which showed he has the ability and if he can put it all together on Saturday he will go close at the massive odds.
Big Danger: 10 Sir Prospector (Bet Now: $4.60) was impressive on debut in Australia last start and despite the step back in distance he looks a horse with plenty of quality and could just be too good for this field.
Roughie: 2 Entre Nous (Bet Now: $6.50) gets into the weights okay with the claim and is just a consistent galloper who hardly puts in a bad run. As always he will be there abouts on the line and looks decent value in what looks to be an easier assignment than he has faced recently.
Race Seven (15:30) : Andrew Ramsden Stakes 3200m:
Back Me: 2 Cafe Society (Bet Now: $21.00) was disappointing in the Warrnambool Cup last start and perhaps a little disappointing in the Sydney Cup but i really liked his run in the Chairman’s Handicap three starts ago when only narrowly beaten by Libran. The main chances in the race will all get back so i doubt there will be much speed on in the race allowing him to dictate the race. If he doesn’t get pressure he will be very hard to run down at big odds.
Big Danger: I’m surprised 4 Lucky Lucky Lucky (Bet Now: $6.00) hasn’t opened as the favourite for the race as his run last start was very good. He looks to have the measure of the runners coming out of the 2800m race at Flemington and will again be hard to beat.
Roughie: 7 Like A Carousel (Bet Now: $41.00) really hasn’t done a lot in his last two preparations although he has raced well over the two miles in tougher races which is why i have him in the selections at the massive odds. There are a few concerns including his strike rate and barrier but if things go his way and he has a bit of luck he has the class to win.
Race Eight (16:10) : Hilton Nicholas Straight Six 1200m:
Back Me: 19 Demonstrate (Bet Now: $3.00) at the weights looks the horse to beat in the race. The form around the Euclase Stakes looks to be good and he ran a close third from off the pace and drops weight from that run. He looks the class runner in the race and he has also drawn midfield so the option to stay on the inside or go to the outside is available depending how the track plays.
Big Danger: 2 Durendal (Bet Now: $9.00) is a quality sprinter although he is usually better second up which is why he isn’t our top selection. He loves the course and distance and it is hard to say he can’t win this. He will be right in the finish and looks the hardest to beat.
Roughie: 14 Exclusive Lass (Bet Now: $19.00) is a runner with plenty of upside. I am willing to put a line through her last start which was uncharacteristic and on her runs prior to that she has shown enough to win this race at the big odds.
Race Nine (16:45) : Better Loosen Up Hcp 1400m:
Back Me: 13 Inspector (Bet Now: $15.00) i don’t feel got the trip last start so i am happy to put a line through that run. The start prior he attacked the line well in a race over this course and distance which looked a lot tougher so on that form he looks very hard to beat on Saturday. He is well weighted, Gauci who is flying at the moment is on board and he is fit. Looks well over the odds.
Big Danger: 6 Jimando (Bet Now: $11.00) has plenty of ability but rarely puts it all together on race day. He comes into this race well after a solid run in the Wangoom and he does look tough to beat in this grade. He has a decent record at the track and distance and shouldn’t be far away on the line.
Roughie: 18 Sir Berus (Bet Now: $31.00) attacked the line well at Morphettville first up and that run suggested he will be tough to beat wherever he goes. He finds a very winnable race on Saturday and with the big field there should be enough pace to set it up for him to put in a big finish.
BEST BET: Race Three Number 7 Turnitaround
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 9 Demonstrate
VALUE: Race Six Number 15 Iron Boss
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 10, 15
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4, 7
Leg Three: 2, 14, 19
Leg Four: 6, 7, 13, 18
$50 Investment= 28% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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