Night racing concludes this season at Moonee Valley this Friday with a strong program assembled, highlighted by the $400,000 Group l Hacer Group William Reid Stakes (1200m), where I’m sure most eyes will be on Samaready to see if she can bounce back from her flop in the Newmarket Handicap. Our best bet comes in race four courtesy of Solicit.
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Race One (18:45) : Mitchelton Wines Tour Handicap (78) 2040m Form Guide
Back Me: Well if ever Auld Burns (Best Odds: $5.00) is going to win a race in Australia, I think this it. Ran really well last start at Sportingbet Park behind Taiyoo, and that horse came out and won again on Wednesday, so the form has been franked. Had a jumps trial after that to prepare for the season. That’s where his future is, but given this is a plain race, he has enough class on the flat to win.
Big Danger: Duplicity Jones (Best Odds: $1.85) has to be rated as the main threat given he beat home Auld Burns in that Sportingbet Park race. His overall stats are consistent, but beyond 1800m, he is yet to win, so that’s the concern if you are backing him.
Roughie: Wilshire Flyer (Best Odds: $21.00) is on the quick back up from last Friday night where he ran a credible fourth to Valediction, in a race which carried a bit more depth than what he faces here. Drawn terribly, but this isn’t an overly strong event.
Race Two (19:15) : Ascend Sales Handicap (90) 1200m
Back Me: This is the easiest race that Red Fez (Best Odds: $8.50) has contested in a very, very long time. I thought her first up run behind Angels Beach down the Flemington straight was excellent, sitting near last and storming home late for third. Races well at the Valley, drawn well, in form rider aboard, hard to beat.
Big Danger: You Can Dance (Best Odds: $10.00) bolted in over this track/distance two back, then raced again here and didn’t pull up 100% after her fifth to Metaphor. Senior rider back on board and looks the likely leader. Expecting her to improve on that run behind Metaphor.
Roughie: Bloomingdale Miss (Best Odds: $5.50) savaged the line late first up to record a top win in a heat of the 55 second challenge. Went to the Cranbourne trials last week and looked very sharp in running third under a good hold. Drawn the paint here and should storm home again late.
Race Three (19:45) : 1Print.com.au Plate 1200m
Back Me: Big fan of Tansy (Best Odds: $5.50). Strung together two impressive wins at Stony Creek and Sportingbet Park respecitvely, then missed the kick and rocketed to the line late for a narrow second to Bloomingdale Miss. That form against the older horses is very strong coming back to his own age here. Should punch forward from the good gate and take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Thermal Current (Best Odds: $4.60) returns to the scene of his best win to date, on Cox Plate Day when beating home Not Listenin’tome. That horse has gone on in leaps and bounds while this horse has sort of struggled to go to that level. He finds his right mark here I think.
Roughie: I Am Titanium (Best Odds: $16.00) was the best of the closers late when resuming at Flemington, finishing fifth to Anatina. Very consistent colt who is never too far away from the action and has a touch of class and quality.
Race Four (20:15) : Alexandra Stakes 1600m
Back Me: Only bad luck can beat Solicit (Best Odds: $1.85). Two dominant wins from as many runs this time in, both sitting on the speed and on each occasion she has relaxed beautifully, in particular in the Kewney which was a real problem in the Spring. She is the best staying filly we have got, and she should win this, then go very close to winning the Oaks.
Big Danger: Suavito (Best Odds: $9.00) looked to travel sweetly in the Kewney and when presented, she certainly loomed as a threat 300m out. The fitness levels probably got to her late. She should improve off that run, and should go well here, but I highly doubt she’ll turn the tables.
Roughie: Girl In Flight (Best Odds: $5.50) was 100% the same as Suavito in the Kewney. She probably looked a more serious threat 300m out than Suavito, but she just petered out of it late and ran a credible fourth. She has talent, and is a must for exotics.
Race Five (20:45) : Essendon Mazda 55 Second Handicap 955m
Back Me: I know she doesn’t have a great first up record, but gee if Platelet (Best Odds: $2.90) is anywhere near right, she surely wins this. Multiple Group l winner in a Friday night open handicap and gets weight off a couple of runners. Market will be the best guide, but she looks so well placed at the weights.
Big Danger: I can’t remember the last time Vatican (Best Odds: $3.20) drew a decent gate. The last he did was seven starts back over this track/distance and he bolted in. He’ll no doubt use the barrier to advantage, and he is a very hard horse to get past.
Roughie: Never Can Tell (Best Odds: $4.80) is just a grade or two below the better three year olds going around at the moment, so he looks well placed here, and does look ready to rumble first up after two solid barrier trials, indicating they have targeted this series.
Race Six (21:15) : Sunline Stakes 1600m
Back Me: Floria (Best Odds: $3.00) was probably ridden a touch too close to the speed first up in the Tressady, but still looked the winner 200m out before just getting tired late and not withstanding the powerful finishing burst of Five All. Fitter, up to the mile, she’ll take a power of beating.
Big Danger: Bippo No Bungus (Best Odds: $11.00) is knocking on the door to win one of these mares races. She closed off the race really nicely in the Tressady after going nowhere in the middle part of the straight. She gets a great chance here with normal luck.
Roughie: Hi Belle (Best Odds: $13.00) is just about in the sin bin with me, but she gets one last chance here to show me something. I thought she was very poor in the Tressady after getting every chance. On her best form, she’d go close, but it’s hard to know where she is at. Benefit of the doubt.
Race Seven (21:45) : William Reid Stakes 1200m
Back Me: Really good edition of this race. Leaning towards the three year old filly Gregers (Best Odds: $6.00) , who has been fantastic in two runs this time in. Closed off really well behind Lankan Rupee in the Oakleigh Plate, then the 58.5kg beat her down the straight when a narrow second to Anatina. The weight pull is definitely a plus, and she loves the Valley.
Big Danger: D-Day, or D-Night, for Samaready (Best Odds: $4.00) here. Excellent first up run in the Lightning behind Snitzerland, then was horrendous in the Newmarket after being heavily talked up by Froggy, with him declaring it to anyone who will listen. Her best win did come at this track/distance, so if she brings her best form, she goes very, very close.
Roughie: The connections of Spirit Of Boom (Best Odds: $6.50) must be wondering what on earth they have to do in order to get a Group l? He has been outstanding so far this prep, running second to Lankan Rupee in the Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket Handicap. No Lankan Rupee here. Hard to beat.
Race Eight (22:15) : Jeep Don’t Hold Back Handicap (78) 1200m
Back Me: Sir Fernando (Best Odds: $7.00) is a real heart breaker for punters. He looks to travel sweetly in the run, then lets down and looks home, but walks the final little bit. In saying that, he has looked sharp in a couple of barrier trials and Oliver has been booked.
Big Danger: Beach Front (Best Odds: $6.50) was given a peach steer by gun Tassie apprentice Siggy Carr to win a heat of the National Apprentice’s Series last Friday night. Katelyn Mallyon jumps aboard, rock hard fit, drawn well, hard to beat.
Roughie: Former Darley galloper Petrify (Best Odds: $6.00) ran a very cheeky race for the new stable when running a close up seventh to Adamantium at Stakes level. That horse will contest the William Reid, so coming back to 78 level and drawing well will ensure he will be right in the mix.
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Best Bet: Race Four Number 1 Solicit (Best Odds: $1.85)
Next Best: Race Five Number 1 Platelet (Best Odds: $2.90)
Best Roughie: Race Three Number 8 Tansy (Best Odds: $5.50)
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Three: 2, 3, 7, 9, 10
Leg Four: 1, 3, 10, 11, 12, 13
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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