21/10/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Caulfield Cup day

Caulfield Cup Day is one of the better days on the Australian racing calendar and it comes around this Saturday as we gear up towards the first of the majors. The weather is overcast, the track is good (3) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.

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11 Naantali (Bet Now: $5.50) is the one that really interests me here. Has been given a little freshen up since debuting at Cranbourne where she was three/four/five wide no cover for the entire trip yet ambled to the front and kicked hard when challenged for an outstanding win in a race where the form has really been franked via the above average Maximus. Keen to see what she does.

6 Our Crown Mistress (Bet Now: $2.70) is a smart looking filly for the Waterhouse/Bott team who has won her past two outings. Was backed as if she was Black Caviar when racing over 1300m at Geelong last time out and she ran up to that expectation with a commanding all the way win. Maps well once again, hard fit, in form…can’t ignore.

10 Sworn Evidence (Bet Now: $7.00) put away a leading Oaks contender in Pinot with absolute ease in breaking the maiden two back at Geelong before racing at Ararat where she got back on a known leaders track and couldn’t make up the ground behind Flo Fo. Genuinely run 1400m looks right up her street and Weir with these 3YO fillies should always be respected up in grade.

5 Octabello (Bet Now: $8.50) is a promising colt for the Mick Price team who is two for two. He resumed over this trip at the midweeks at Flemington and you really had to like the way he knuckled down and wanted to win, surging hard to grab them in the shadows. I know the stable have a good opinion of this colt and he should measure up here comfortably.

8 Lord Sundowner (Bet Now: $4.60) is the very interesting runner here. Mick Price trained three year old who has won his last two starts, and has fair dinkum spanked his rivals both times in leading all the way, and form out of both races has been good. On the last start Echuca where he won by five eased down, he will go close.

6 Almighty (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented son of Exceed And Excel that is first up here for Team Snowden. This bloke showed good promise in the Winter with some nice efforts alongside and behind quality types, including D’Argento, Siege Of Quebec and Social Element. Closed off well against the bias on debut and first up at 1400m tells me there is intent to run well fresh.

I think Aloisia will win the Oaks, and I think her big threat will be 12 Teodora (Bet Now: $4.80), the 2017 version of Tiamo Grace. She has come from nowhere in a short space of time but she has made quite an impression. Debuted with an unbelievable win against the pattern at Ararat before going to Bendigo last week where she did plenty wrong but the way she attacked the line…she looks good. Very good.

6 Pinot (Bet Now: $5.00) stamped herself as an Oaks contender with a dominant win in the Trial at Flemington. Was given a lovely ride by Baster off the pace before getting the split and darting clear late for a spank job of her rivals. Bit more depth here, and will have to work harder for the win, but can’t knock the stable with an up and comer.

10 Rimraam (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained filly who took a little while to break the maiden tag but she did it nicely last time out at Geelong over the 1755m. Hit the front far too soon and looked to the float the entire straight so the margin flatters her rivals from that day. Doubt she wins, but she has upside and in the right stable.

2 Cliff’s Edge (Bet Now: $4.20) is an absolute beauty for the Weir team. Puts himself in the right spot and just fights, like he did in the UCI when attempting to lead all the way. Gave a really good kick under Allen and looked home but he couldn’t hold out the brilliant finishing burst of Main Stage. Maps super once again and this track will see no disadvantage being on speed. Not going to be a ‘Long Shot’ per-say but i think its a race a three.

4 Main Stage (Bet Now: $3.80) shot straight to the top of Derby betting after his win in the UCI at Flemington. Considering the pattern of the day was suited to those racing on the inner section of the course, he put up a remarkable effort to win considering where he was out wide and how far back he was at the top of the straight. This will be a good test, but have to include him.

7 Tavistock Abbey (Bet Now: $6.00) is a promising gelding for the Freedman camp who came with a well timed run to win the Derby Trial at Flemington, beating Main Stage, who franked the form by winning the UCI. Trialled last week at Cranbourne and looked very good to my eye. Promising and I’ll go his way.

10 Kiwia (Bet Now: $5.50) for me. Darren Weir trained four year old who gave them a touch up fresh in the Gold Nugget at Ballarat before going to the Murtoa Cup, and quite frankly, he was given a slaughter by Harry Coffey. Just got too far back and had to make an 800m run. Only Winx can pull that off. Did a remarkable job to get as close as he did. Expecting him to bounce back hard here.

8 Samovare (Bet Now: $2.90) has the form on the board but $3.40 is a bit skinny. Still, she has to go in off her effort in the Underwood where she attempted to lead all the way and gave a little kick but was just found wanting late behind Bonneval. Five starts against the males for one win doesn’t read great, nor does the barrier, but she comes through the right form race.

I think 1 Assign (Bet Now: $4.60) is the big watch here. Did nothing first up in the Heatherlie behind Hell Or Highwater, but was freshened up and ran last week in the Turnbull. Yes, clearly no match for Winx, but I thought he stuck on really well in defeat Ventura Storm/Humidor…what price would they start here.

Happy to give 5 Ulmann (Bet Now: $7.50) another look here. I’m not sure he is a straight track horse so I am happy to overlook his first up average effort in the Gilgai behind Keen Array. He is a very good horse when he is at his best and he does have some nice stats at this track/distance, as well as when he is produced second up.

10 Eckstein (Bet Now: $6.50) could be the sleeper here. Quality mare for Kurt Goldman who dodged the Tristarc to take on the boys here after contesting the Let’s Elope last time out where she got held up early on in the straight before picking up and was strong late behind Now or Later. Not sure Caulfield is her track, but if they overdo it, she’s the one.

1 All Our Roads (Bet Now: $10.00) is the big watch here. Former NZ horse who made his Australian debut for Waller over 1400m at Randwick on a leaders track and I thought his effort behind Sir Plush was more than sound given that horse dominated proceedings from the front. He has Group form when racing across the Tasman and he is a second up winner.

1 Faatinah (Bet Now: $7.50) is the class runner and by some distance and only has to overcome the nasty gate to be a threat. He had market support at longer odds when resuming in the Moir and he ran an absolute beauty for mine with no luck at all in the straight when appearing to be full of running. Draws to stalk the speed here and has a fab second up record.

10 Property (Bet Now: $3.80) for me. Classy three year old that resumes for the Robert Smerdon team after a pretty solid Autumn prep, which was highlighted by a gutsy fifth in the Blue Diamond before a win at Randwick during the Championships. Recent Cranbourne trial win was outstanding and he looks ready to go fresh.

6 Ocean Embers (Bet Now: $11.00) a definite threat. Shea Eden trained mare who is a very good sprinter when on song, but is just a tier or two down below the very best. She resumed over 1100m here and her closing effort late on a leaders track behind Badajoz was full of merit. Goes well second up and though back to 1000m is some worry, she does have a booming finish on her.

Been with 11 Bonneval (Bet Now: $8.00) for a little while now and I’m not going to alter. Many have after her effort last week in the Caulfield Stakes, but you have to keep in mind she did pull up slightly lame and the tempo/bias against her didn’t help. She’s the equal highest rated runner in the race yet is only 2.5kg over the minimum, she gets the form rider steering and she’ll get tempo.

3 Johannes Vermeer (Bet Now: $4.40) is the one to beat on form. His effort in the Caulfield Stakes was outstanding. He was out the back but looked to be bolting before Mallyon eased him wider and he let down beautifully, only to just miss out on Gailo Chop. He has done very well on the back up before and loses nothing with Melham steering.

7 Ventura Storm (Bet Now: $11.00) has had the perfect lead in to the Caulfield Cup. Excellent run in the Makybe Diva before going to the Turnbull where he ran well but was clearly no match for Winx. Jameka produced similar last year before spanking them in this race. Well weighted, draws well and gets a gun steering in Olly.

9 Inference (Bet Now: $17.00) looks to be ticking on okay for this race and the Melbourne Cup. He hasn’t won or looked likely, but he has whacked away nicely and worked to and through the line, which is what he did in the Caulfield Stakes. My worry with him is that he needs a wet track. If he does get it, he’s a big chance.

1 Foxplay (Bet Now: $4.40) has the weight but she has the class to go awfully close here. Her runs this Spring have been amazing. She’s had to face Winx and then a track bias in the Epsom and was one of the runs of the day there. If she gets any kind of normal luck here, I am certain she will look the winner at some stage.

If there is a danger, it’s 13 Shillelagh (Bet Now: $10.00). She is a pure dry tracker and if she gets that here, she will make she lets her rivals know she’s here. Very negative ride from Angland first up over 1400m at Randwick but I loved the way she closed off without much room. Myer looks her goal, and appears spot on for it, but here, she will get tempo and a likely dry track.

6 Sword Of Light (Bet Now: $21.00) is a knockout chance here at odds. This mare sat on speed and toughed it out strongly to win the Let’s Elope two back before going to the Blazer where she just copped a bit too much pressure on speed and dropped out to finish down the track behind Now Or Later. If she gets a conservative run here, she can fill an exotic. Doubt she wins but.

If we got a wet track, I’d declare 3 Nieta (Bet Now: $2.15). But the dry track doesn’t help her claims. She has taken on the best of the best Sydney racing has to offer in the sprinting caper and has acquitted herself well. She won’t know herself against this lot, and if she brings her A-Game, she wins. The firm track and deep into a prep is my worry.

8 Concealer (Bet Now: $8.00) is a talented mare that is first up for the Tony McEvoy yard. She hasn’t raced since the Autumn down the straight at Flemington where she sat near the speed and closed off well when second to Hear The Chant. 31 weeks since that run, and though her latest jump out was just fair, it’s hard to put the pen through anything this stable is saddling up.

10 Sneakers (Bet Now: $31.00) is a handy mare for Nigel Blackiston who is outclassed here on form, but she’s racing well and overall, this isn’t a strong contest. Looked home in both runs this time in but she has just missed on the bob. Should get a sweet run from the gate here and for mine, she is a must for exotics.

BEST BET: Race Nine Number 1 Foxplay

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 12 Teodora

VALUE: Race Eight Number 11 Bonneval

Have a Tip for Caulfield Cup day? – Post your tips in the comment section below.

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 1, 4, 6, 8, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 11, 14, 15, 16

Leg Three: 1

Leg Four: 1, 3, 7, 8, 10

$50 Investment= 22.22% of the dividend if successful

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