21/10/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Northerly Stakes day

WA racing returns to Ascot this Saturday for a bumper card, highlighted by the $150,000 Group lll Northerly Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

9 Orasky (Bet Now: $9.00)  gets the nod for me. Daughter of Oratorio for the Dan Morton team who debuts off two trials, the latest coming last Monday over 1000m at Belmont where she won the trial impressively and ran decent time for the morning. Rails draw is a big tick and Parnham is the form rider in WA right now.

5 Agent Pippa (Bet Now: $3.60) is the big watch here. Team Pearce trained daughter of Demerit who only trialled on Monday at Lark Hill but she smashed the clock in winning the trial, running sub 56 for the 950m, which is low flying. Looks a real professional and she does draw to either lead or stalk the speed.

2 Carolina Reaper (Bet Now: $8.50) is a son of Frost Giant having his first start for the Paul Jordan team. This colt trialled over 400m at Belmont last Monday where he won it and ran okay time. It’s hard to get a read on those trials, but he did show natural speed. Should come over from the gate nicely and be in it for a long way.

Happy to give 1 Pinzu (Bet Now: $2.35) another chance. I thought it was a pretty ordinary steer by Andrew Castle a fortnight back over the Belmont mile. Sat last in a slowly run race and instead of peeling wide for clear air, he went between runners and got held up. Damage done. Kersley takes over and I am confident he won’t make the same mistake.

3 Pushin’ Shapes (Bet Now: $5.50) ran second in that same race mentioned above won by Our Finest Moment and I thought his effort was sound in defeat. He was 2100m back to the mile that day, so now he has had the mile run under the belt, he should be better off, he draws to stalk the speed, and rates highly for mine.

4 Point (Bet Now: $4.00) is three weeks between runs since racing over 1400m at Belmont where he had a nice sit just off the pace and presented as if he was going to be the winner but he just died on the run late when third to Pinzu. The big tick for mine is that Pike takes over and he is up to a more ideal trip.

5 Arcadia Prince (Bet Now: $4.60) looks one of the better bets on the program. Son of Pierro for Team Williams who started deep in the red when resuming in a York maiden and he bolted in under Pike, winning comfortably and running sizzling time. Looks a Stakes horse in the making and I think he can take care of this lot.

1 Salubrious (Bet Now: $8.50) is a smart son of Wanted that resumes for the Dion Luciani team. This bloke had a pretty solid Winter prep and showed good promise every time he stepped out. Last raced on July 15 at Belmont where he ran a close up second to the speedster Mizlecki. No trials, but should be forward enough given he’s fresh at 1400m.

9 Necklet (Bet Now: $1.95) is a Fred Kersley trained filly who debuted at the Belmont midweeks on September 27 and I liked the way she stuck on in defeat even though she was beaten some six lengths by the above average Mikimoto. Carries 51kg after the claim for young Kersley and on firmer footing, I’m keen to see what she does here.

1 Dainty Tess (Bet Now: $5.00) is a horse you would just love to own. She always picks up prizemoney for connections and her career has been amazing. Once upon a time she’d struggle to run out 1000m, but these days, they are sitting her out the back and she’s producing some amazing splits, like she did when winning fresh at Belmont eight weeks back. Loves Ascot and she’ll be launching late.

2 State Solicitor (Bet Now: $1.85) kicks off his Winterbottom assault here and I’m keen to see how he returns. Raced twice in the Autumn for a grinding sixth before winning and being tipped out. The Winterbottom was perhaps too soon for him last year. Now he has had the 12 months under the belt, he looks ready and the trials indicate that.

3 Zuccheros (Bet Now: $35.00) could add some value to multiples. He ran over 1000m at Belmont two weeks back where he had the suck run behind the speed under young Kersley and looked a threat if he got clear, but when he did, he didn’t do much at all and battled away. Johnston-Porter takes over now and third up, he should be ready.

11 Stageman (Bet Now: $3.70) takes on some nice seasoned gallopers here, but he looks a real up and comer for Team Williams. Debuted a tick over two weeks back at Belmont where he was well backed late and the punters got it spot on as he chimed in from off the pace and rounded them up quite comfortably to score a dominant win. He can measure up here for sure.

10 Dynamite Dream (Bet Now: $4.00) is a talented filly for the Jim Taylor yard who ran over 1200m at Belmont last Wednesday where she was given a lovely ride on speed from Jason Brown, pinching a mid race breather and that’s what won the race for her. Looks to map well again and despite the rise in grade, she is a threat for sure.

4 Patapus (Bet Now: $7.00) is the fit/in form mare here who could be a knockout at odds. She is six weeks between runs since racing over 1200m at Belmont where she had the sit behind the speed and loomed large but she didn’t ping when it mattered. Like she has been given a little break to charge the batteries and she is a danger if the breaks go her way.

10 Oliver’s Travels (Bet Now: $3.60) is a Simon Miller trained gelding who was most impressive in winning first up over 1300m at Belmont before coming back to 1200m which was probably not ideal plus he was wide no cover for the trip when third to Dynamite Dream. Bit more depth here, but down in the weights and I like the fact he is up to 1400m.

3 Cash On Call (Bet Now: $3.90) was six weeks between runs when racing over 1300m at Belmont last time out where he was given a sweet steer from Pike just off the pace before getting the split and diving through to get the win. That was three weeks ago, so he has room to improve and we know now he is best on the fresh side.

8 Liberty Rise (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Colin Webster trained mare who ran at Northam a couple of Sundays back and I thought she ran on strongly late against the tempo behind Ace’s Wish. The rise to 1400m looks ideal and despite rising in class/depth, she has a fab record at Ascot and she will be strong late for sure.

8 Cosmic Storm (Bet Now: $5.00) is a quality mare that resumes for the Williams/Peters team. This mare hasn’t raced since the Carnival last year where she dominated the mares series, winning three of the four races. Resuming here tells me they think she is better than that and could be heading to a Railway. Trials indicate she is back in fab order and Pike steers.

4 Disposition (Bet Now: $6.50) is a quality galloper for the Adan Durrant stable who was confidently backed to win the Hannans during the Kalgoorlie Carnival and aided by a lovely ride from Pike, he scored a super win and continued his dynamite fresh record. Goes well second up and loses nothing with Peter Hall steering.

2 Gatting (Bet Now: $10.00) is a very, very good four year old that is first up. He was a star 3YO last season, highlighted his dominant win in the WA Derby. His best form is over further and he generally does need a run under the belt, but gee his trials have been sharp and the signs are there that he will run a beauty fresh.

Buttering up on 10 Kia Ora Star (Bet Now: $4.20). He is on the back up for the Lane camp after racing over the 1675m at Bunbury last Saturday where he just took an absolute eternity to wind up but when he balanced up the final 150m, he savaged the line to just miss. Up to 1800m is perfect and he’ll get clear running to launch.

3 Golgotha (Bet Now: $8.50) is a Lindsey Smith trained galloper who is in good form at the moment. He ran over 2000m at Belmont last Wednesday where he was aggressively ridden on speed by Lee Newman and kicked hard into the straight but was grabbed late by Buster’s Shadow. Back to 1800m is ideal and with a more conservative steer, he can go one better.

11 Jazari (Bet Now: $23.00) has a very ordinary winning strike rate but that doesn’t tell the tale of how hard he tries. He just usually finds one better, and that was the case last time out over 2000m at Ascot where he stalked the speed and tried hard but couldn’t quite get the job done and had to settle for second to Balmontgomery. Harder here, but one for exotics.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 11 Stageman

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 5 Arcadia Prince

VALUE: Race One Number 9 Orasky

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 11

Leg Two: 1, 3, 5, 10

Leg Three: 2, 4, 8, 9, 11

Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 9, 10, 11

$50 Investment= 41.66% of the dividend if successful

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