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Public Holiday racing in Sydney this Monday heads to Warwick Farm where eight races will be run and won. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Race 1. (13:20) ATC Owners Handicap 1300m

Back Me

2 Guipure (Bet Now: $3.50) looks the way to go in the opener. Godolphin filly who debut back in the Winter at Rosehill and ran well in defeat I thought when third to stablemate Gaulois in a race which has seen three subsequent winners, one of the better 2YO form races from the Sydney winter. Two trials leading in have been good and looks to have come on from prep one to prep two.

Danger

5 Oxford Bella (Bet Now: $6.50) nearly landed some big bets first up at Gosford but just ran out of condition late before going to Hawkesbury where she bumped into a good one I think in Pleasantries. Should come over nicely from the gate I feel and third up, she should be ready fitness wise.

Long Shot

8 Touch Of Mink (Bet Now: $7.50) wasn’t given much hope when racing over 1100m here a couple of Wednesdays back but despite drifting price, she ran quite well in defeat I thought when third to Memento in a race which had a bit of depth to it. Should sit much closer here from the good draw and is a knockout chance.

Race 2. (13:55) TAB Rewards Handicap 1300m

Back Me

3 Gresham (Bet Now: $3.40) looks a great bet here. Chris Waller trained three year old who has been freshened up since early August when placing at Canterbury behind Runaway. Trialled up brilliantly at Rosehill a couple of weeks back, winning and doing it under a hold. Should take a power of beating here.

Danger

2 Deprive (Bet Now: $2.90) is a son of Denman on debut for Godolphin and James Cummings. This gelding has trialled twice in readiness for his first day at the races, the latest coming last Monday at Randwick when running fourth but not beaten far. Looks well educated and should run well here.

Long Shot

6 Tangmere (Bet Now: $10.00) is a son of Frankel on debut for Chris Waller. He has had a couple of preps without racing but finally debuts here and he has looked solid in recent trials, winning his last two, albeit both weren’t run in fast time. Well bred, draws well and McEvoy steers so I wouldn’t rule him out.

Race 3. (14:30) ATC Members Mile (82) 1600m

Back Me

6 Lead Choreographer (Bet Now: $2.80) was confidently supported when resuming over this track/distance and the import for China Horse Club landed some good bets with a strong and tenacious win under Bowman. Loses nothing with McEvoy steering, meets a thin race and only has upside.

Danger

5 Chapelco (Bet Now: $3.10) gave them a spanking two back on the Beaumont track at Newcastle before racing over 1400m here where he again attempted to lead all the way and gave a good kick but was outgunned late. That does leave me with some reservations about him running out a strong mile, but he should lead for fun.

Long Shot

1 Black On Gold (Bet Now: $5.50) is the very interesting runner here. Chris Waller trained four year who hasn’t raced since the Winter Carnival in Brisbane where he didn’t quite measure up in the Derby. Been given a good break and has trialled up okay twice leading in without setting the world on fire. Finds Bowman too which might be a lead.

Race 4. (15:05) Tab.com.au Handicap (80 2200m

Back Me

Looking at this race with Alward out at this stage. 3 Olympic Academy (Bet Now: $8.00) for me. Kris Lees trained veteran who is racing really well at the moment. He was asked to carry 61kg in the Tuncurry Cup last time out and I thought he did a great job in defeat with that impost, running a narrow third to Who Is Game. He likes racing here and Bowman is back on.

Danger

5 Exoteric (Bet Now: $2.90) is an in form stayer for the Waller camp who was somewhat lucky to win at this track/distance last time out. It was more so Social Element losing the race than it was Exoteric winning it, but he did greet the judge first and did everything right. Schofield seems to get on well with him and is a key threat.

Long Shot

2 Regal Monarch (Bet Now: $11.00) has been given a tick over five weeks to freshen up after his horrible first up performance over 1500m at Rosehill where he sat back near last and did nothing really behind Special Missile. Two trials since have been ordinary to the eye, but he finds a winnable race here on his best form, McEvoy rides and he is a second up winner.

Race 5. (15:40) 12 Days To Everest Sprint 1000m

Back Me

He’s a pest, but I’m really keen to play here on 1 Kaepernick (Bet Now: $2.70). Former Team Hawkes galloper now with John O’Shea and for mine he looks ready to rumble fresh. He is a horse who generally does perform well on the fresh side and he looks spot on after two trials, both of which were run in good time. Definitely forward enough to win.

Danger

6 Realise Potential (Bet Now: $4.80) got a well deserved win on the board last time out at the midweeks over 1100m here. McEvoy took bad luck out of the equation with this horse, rolling him to the front after sitting wide and dominating proceedings from the front end. Bit more depth here, but hard fit and in form.

Long Shot

4 Highly Geared (Bet Now: $7.00) is a talented mare that is first up for the Gary Kirkup yard. This mare last raced in the July Sprint at Randwick where she led at a good gallop but just weakened out of it late behind Boss Lane. Resumes with no public trials, but she is a bomb when produced fresh and is a winner at the Farm.

Race 6. (16:15) TAB Handicap (80) 1400m

Back Me

8 I Am Serious (Bet Now: $3.70) is a mare I am such a huge fan of and can’t drop off her. Burnt the pocket first up here when wide all the way behind Perizada but I thought the effort was very good considering the work she did out wide. Should get good cover here from the gate and launch at them late.

Danger

5 Canberra (Bet Now: $7.50) is a mare in really good form at the moment for the Chris Waller team. She ran over 1300m here at the midweeks a few weeks ago where she was backed with a bit of confidence late and aided by a lovely steer from Hugh Bowman, the daughter of Sepoy proved too good. Rates highly.

Long Shot

4 Princess Posh (Bet Now: $4.50) drops miles in grade/depth here after contesting the Tibbie at Newcastle where she was a little unlucky not to finish closer behind Zanbagh. Just got held up a touch in the straight which cost her a bit of momentum. Draws a sweet barrier here and Avdulla sticks which is a tick.

Race 7. (16:50) #theraces Handicap (80) 1400m

Back Me

3 Jaminzah (Bet Now: $3.30) looks the way to go. Chris Waller trained galloper who did a good job in Melbourne, winning a couple of races nicely, before Waller sent him to Sydney where he ran at Randwick and it was just an utter nightmare if you were on. He was ready to launch and probably but couldn’t get the run. Freshened up and looked sharp in a recent trial.

Danger

D-Day looms for 5 Peacock (Bet Now: $4.40). Two runs back as a gelding have been fair, the latest being a close up midfield finish at Rosehill behind Interlocuter. He trialled up well last Monday at Randwick and third up at 1400m, this race really will tell us how genuine he is. If he can’t run well here, he won’t run well again in town.

Long Shot

12 Le Cavalier (Bet Now: $46.00) is an absolute ripper for the Norm Gardner team. He ran over the 1550m at Canterbury last time out where he got back off the pace nearer the inside and was looking to get clear and build momentum but couldn’t really do it in time when midfield behind Fortensky. Carries only 50kg here and has enormous upside.

Race 8. (17:25) ATC Sprint (70) 1000m

Back Me

Happy to take the $5 for 3 To Excess (Bet Now: $5.50). He was 13 months between runs when resuming at Kembla Grange where the punters knew he was wound up to run well and they got it spot on as he came with a booming finish down the outside and clocked some really fast splits for the meeting. Confident he can measure up here.

Danger

2 Good Time Charlie (Bet Now: $7.50) is a son of Myboycharlie that resumes here. This bloke hasn’t raced since mid June over 1400m here where he looked not happy at all on the heavy track and was a complete forgive behind the Pelethronius, who went on to better things afterwards. Trials leading in have been good and he does fly fresh.

Long Shot

8 Validate (Bet Now: $9.50) is the interesting one here. Kim Waugh trained mare who resumes after a 15 week break. Last raced over 1200m at Rosehill where she was a bit outclassed I thought behind the above average mare Test The World. Looked sharp in a recent Wyong trial placing, which was run in fast time, and she gets Bowman. $11 seems overs.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Six Number 8 I Am Serious

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 3 Gresham

VALUE: Race Four Number 3 Olympic Academy

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 6

Leg Two: 4, 5, 6, 8

Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 11, 12

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 8, 12

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