21/7/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Flemington

Melbourne racing this Saturday heads to Flemington for a nine race program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

8 Absolute Heaven (Bet Now: $5.50) could be the improver at odds. I’m willing to forgive her for the run at the Moonee Valley midweeks. She was tardy away, sent back to last and couldn’t come on at all. The runs prior on speed were very good and the form around her does read quite well for this. Back to 1400m also a tick.

3 Naantali (Bet Now: $4.00) was a notable drifter in betting last time out at Sale after a spank job at Geelong the start prior, and the punters got it right. She loomed to win, looked home but was nabbed late by Miss Pandamus. That does leave me with reservations about her at 1400m, but no denying she has quality.

9 Undoutable Miss (Bet Now: $19.00) could be an improver. She was scratched from an easier race earlier in the week in preference for this. She comes through the Rivette Final where she didn’t pull up 100% post race behind dominant winner Mintha. I think back to 1400m is ideal and she should get the dream run from the paint.

Looks a lovely race for 7 So Splendid (Bet Now: $3.50). Two runs this time in at Rosehill have been quite good, and while she’s lacked the turn of foot to get the job done, she’s kept finding the line and hasn’t beaten far. The 1700m of Flemington looks perfect for this girl and she has plenty of upside, along with the fact she’s run well here before in much stronger races than this.

3 Ma Jones (Bet Now: $11.00) is the interesting runner. Darren Weir trains her and if she produced her best, she’d be beating these. Hasn’t raced since June 27 at the Moonee Valley midweeks when midfield behind stablemate Hectopascal. She has run well here previously and tends to race quite well on the fresh side.

8 Street Spun (Bet Now: $14.00) is a David Briedoake trained mare who is racing quite well at the moment. Bolted up over the 2040m at the Valley two back before racing over 2100m last Wednesday where she ran a gutsy third to Tiffany’s Lass. Would love her at 2000m, but I think a truly run 1700m will suit this girl if that indeed pans out.

If 4 Crocodile Rock (Bet Now: $2.30) is fit, he wins. The stable don’t really fire until late August based on stats, but he does look a fascinating runner. Had three runs in the Winter/Spring last year, including a second to star stablemate Almandin in the JRA Trophy. Tactics notification will tell you if he’s there to win, because if they go forward, that means he’s ready.

8 Thunder Cloud (Bet Now: $3.20) is a Darren Weir trained stayer who has been up a fair while but gee he’s racing well. Ran over 2100m last Wednesday at Sandown and despite looking in a bit of trouble early on in the straight, he surged hard late and proved too good. He races as if a longer trip will suit and is down on the minimum.

11 Tiffany’s Lass (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Danny Laws trained mare who is on the quick back up after winning over 2100m at Sandown last Wednesday where she was well backed late and proved too good, outgunning Almalita in the shadows. Significant step up in grade, but right down in the weights and is a mare in winning form. Perhaps one for exotics.

10 Chatuchak (Bet Now: $13.00) looks well placed back to 78 grade. These four year olds have a really good record in these 78 races on Saturday and this mare looks a decent winning chance. Lumped 61kg to win impressively two back at Sandown before racing over 1200m at Caulfield in an 84 three weeks ago and made up late ground behind Ashlor. Draws to stalk Mystified and have last say.

8 Data Point (Bet Now: $11.00) is a handy son of Lonhro resuming for the Mick Kent team. He’s certainly got the quality to win this race and his record of two wins from 17 starts probably doesn’t reflect that. In saying that, both career wins have come first up, he’s trialled up well at Cranbourne and stable is going well with their first up runners.

16 Tahi (Bet Now: $12.00) is a well bred son of O’Reilly for Danny O’Brien who had been poor to kick off the prep but bounced back to his best last time when dropping in grade to get the job done at Sale. He has run well down the straight and now that he has found winning form, perhaps he can go on with it now.

I’ll just lean the way of 1 Fun Fact (Bet Now: $3.80). WaterBott train this colt, who comes here off the back of a maiden win over the mile at Newcastle last Tuesday. Visually, it was very ugly, but I think you have to keep in mind this horse is bred to get further and he’s racing like that. Very one paced but is strong to the line. Here, I hope they roll along and not make it a sit/sprint. If it’s the latter, he doesn’t have the turn of foot.

2 Visao (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Ciaron Maher trained youngster was okay on debut at Pakenham behind Belichick before going to Mildura where he took on the older horses and the way he travelled in the run, he was never getting beat and rightfully bolted in. He’ll have no issue with 1800m and is one of just four race winners here.

4 Inkslinger (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Brian McGrath trained youngster who should be clearly forgiven for his failure in the Taj Rossi Final given he clipped heels of Pedicel and nearly dumped Lane, so understandably beaten a long way. The runs prior suggested that 1800m+ would be ideal and this race isn’t overly strong.

1 Brave Song (Bet Now: $3.30) is the class of the field and has to be respected first up. He hasn’t raced since the Darby Munro on Slipper Day when running midfield behind I Am Excited. He’s a good fresh horse and his trials leading in at Sydney have been more than encouraging. Just needs to tick the straight track box to win IMO.

4 Order Of Command (Bet Now: $3.30) is a Danny O’Brien trained three year old who has had a really good prep. Raced near the inside which wasn’t the go two back behind Nature Strip before finishing much closer to that horse in the Creswick Final, running second. Back to 1100m the little query, but he’s going well and has to be included.

I think this race is about 2 Ducimus (Bet Now: $5.50) and which version turns up. If he brings his best, he’ll be too good. Resumption over 1000m here saw that when beaten a lip before going to this track/distance and he was all over the shop behind Nature Strip. Cross-Over Nose Band goes on to hopefully straighten him up. Best horse in the race IMO. Hopefully he shows that, but I’d rather watch than back.

4 Night Falls (Bet Now: $2.80) has been up a fair while for the Weir team but gee he’s racing so well. Don’t think he beat much a fortnight back over 1500m at Gawler (Metro) but Rawiller rode him like a good thing and he won accordingly, spanking them by nearly five lengths and the time was quicker than the other 1500m race on the afternoon. Confident he measures up.

2 Mr Money Bags (Bet Now: $4.80) has been up a long time it would seem for Robbie Griffiths but gee he’s racing well. Won the Silver Bowl Final at this track/distance two weeks ago and it was largely due to the absolute peach of a ride from Jye McNeil, who stalked Gaulois everywhere, got the better of it and edged away, beating Mount Kilcoy, who obviously franked the form. Maps well again.

3 Al Passem (Bet Now: $8.00) could improve sharply here in a winnable race. Toughed it out strongly two back at Caulfield to get the job done before racing there again last Saturday where he just did too much work on speed and tired late in a real messy race won by Mandela Effect. Looks to lead these for fun and he can bounce back hard.

Forgive a horse for one poor run so I’ll do that with 9 Sayed (Bet Now: $13.00), but this is last chance. He carried the hopes of a nation last time in the Winter Cup at Rosehill but wanted to overdo it quite badly outside the speed and was the first horse beaten upon straightening. With cover, and on a firmer surface, I think he’ll be more effective.

6 Sixties Groove (Bet Now: $2.40) looks an obvious threat. He ran in the Country Cup Final a fortnight back at this track/distance where he beat nothing but the manner in which he did it was quite good, largely thanks to the steer from an in form Craig Williams. That should do his confidence the world of good, but he’s a tricky horse and does need things to fall into place.

Huge watch on 14 Jaameh (Bet Now: $14.00) for the Hayes/Dabernig team. Made his Australian debut over 2000m at Caulfield back on April 28 where he came with a powerful finishing burst to get the job done. Tipped out and he’s got that look of Tawqeet about him where he could easily measure up in a race like the Metropolitan before a possible Caulfield Cup crack.

Just needs normal luck and 4 Invincible Al (Bet Now: $3.90) should just about be winning this. He did a huge job to win over 1000m on the Parks track four weeks ago given he was ridden completely upside down. Normally he is a horse who needs to be ridden cold with cover. Not that afternoon. He was wide no cover on speed yet just proved too good. He can go on with it here.

This race will tells us where 5 Wise Hero (Bet Now: $4.50) is at because after a couple of okay runs to start the prep, he was pretty disappointing three weeks back at Caulfield behind Ashlor. Back to 1000m with weight relief, and with a good record at Flemington, this will tell us if he’s going any good or not. Hoping it’s the latter.

1 We’ve Got This (Bet Now: $14.00) is a quality son of Hard Spun resuming for the Greg Eurell yard. This bloke is blessed with a stack of talent but due to his racing pattern, he usually receives more bad luck than good. He hasn’t raced since the Spring when down the track behind Badajoz at Caulfield. Likes racing down the straight and to the eye has trialled up well at Cranbourne.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 4 Crocodile Rock

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 4 Invincible Al

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 9 Sayed

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 4

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8

Leg Three: 3, 6, 9, 10, 14

Leg Four: 1, 4, 5, 7

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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