The Winter Carnival in Brisbane continues this Saturday at Doomben where it is Tails Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (7) and the rail is out 1.5 metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:32) The Ausure Scone Handicap 2200m
Happy to be in the corner of 2 Exoteric (Bet Now: $3.50). Brilliant ride from Magorrian got him the win two back at the Gold Coast before going to the Toowoomba Cup where I thought he was set an impossible task yet finished off okay late behind Morendi. He can be hit and miss at times, but he looks be racing much more consistently in Queensland.
4 Xebec (Bet Now: $2.70) finally got his first Australian win on the board when leading all the way at this track/distance three weeks ago but you have to be a bit suspect about the way he won. It was pretty much a 600m barrier trial. They walked for the first mile of the race and then Fradd clicked him up and it was all over. Doubt he’ll get it that easy again but he’s got that winning feeling now.
3 My Diamantine (Bet Now: $9.50) is on the seven day back up for the Brian Smith team after racing over the 1800m at the Sunny Coast last Saturday where she got a mile back off them in the run but finished off strongly to be not far away off the well backed Cogliere. Has really good form at this track/distance and should be near peak fitness now.
Race 2. (12:07) GOA Handicap (75) 1050m
12 Jetsonic (Bet Now: $7.50) on top for me. This bloke trialled well prior to resuming over this track/distance four weeks back where there was a mad bias towards those on speed/rail and he had no hope where he was behind Yarrapower. Hopefully we get an even level playing field so he gets his chance to ambush them late.
7 Secret Mo (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Lindsay Gough trained gelding who comes through the Yarrapower race here on March 24 where he was up near the speed throughout and tried hard but the winner just packed far too many punchers. Has been kept up to the mark with a trial win at Eagle Farm last week, running okay time.
4 Lord Marmaduke (Bet Now: $18.00) is the unknown. David Vandyke trains this gelding, who at his best would beat these, but where he is at fitness wise is an unknown given he hasn’t had a public trial leading in. What I do know is that he is a good fresh horse and the inkling I get is that the stable have him ready to go fresh.
Race 3. (12:42) Leila Rose Foundation Plate 1050m
If she ticks the wet track box, 5 Pennino (Bet Now: $3.80) should just about beat this lot. Nippy filly for Daryl Hansen that resumes here after a three run prep to kick off her career in the Summer, all three races on her home track at the Sunny Coast, placing on debut before winning her next two and being tipped out. Resumes with no trials, but she should ping to the front and take some beating.
2 Archade (Bet Now: $23.00) is a Golden Archer gelding for the Desleigh Forster team who was okay on debut here back in November behind Blue Book before being tipped out. Resumed over 800m at Dalby where he looked a good thing on paper and won accordingly. His confidence will be up and up to 1050m no drama.
11 Lady Mccabe (Bet Now: $16.00) could represent a bit of value. Helen Page trains this filly, who had two runs in the Summer, debuting with a placing over the short course at the Gold Coast before racing there again and bumping into Sunlight. Trial win was very good recently and I think she can run a race at odds.
Race 4. (13:17) Entice Services Handicap (75) 1600m
Going to side with 10 Le Dude (Bet Now: $14.00) in what looks a very tricky race. Bolted up two back at this track/distance before stepping up to 1800m at the Gold Coast three weeks ago where he got caught in the worst part of the track when third to Dauphin De France, who won last Saturday, so the form has been franked.
2 Savwell (Bet Now: $4.40) should appreciate coming back in trip. He ran over 2200m here three weeks ago and I just think he found that trip too far plus the tempo didn’t help at all behind Xebec. He has promised so much in a short space of time and I think he can reach blacktype level in time. Hard to beat for sure.
14 Foxy Affair (Bet Now: $13.00) is the watch horse. Son of Foxwedge who had put together two sharp wins, and was racing as if the mile would be ideal, before he ran in the Toowoomba Guineas and for mine was disappointing behind Hang. Was drawn wide that day and had to go back to near last so from the good draw here, he can hopefully sit closer.
Race 5. (13:52) Magic Millions National Sale Handicap (80) 1350m
With a potentially soft lead, I’ll go the way of 3 Allknight Saint (Bet Now: $19.00). Had trialled up okay prior to resuming at Grafton where he was just off the pace and wide but let down hard to just miss out on winning, settling for a narrow second to Gresselin. Very good second up record, maps well and the claim helps for sure.
18 Cosmopol (Bet Now: $4.60) is having his first run for the Alan Jones team after formerly being with the Hawkes stable. He raced three weeks back over 1200m here against the bias and worked home strongly to run fourth to Mogador. Soft track is the unknown with him, plus his winning strike rate, but the last run was too good to ignore.
13 Liberty Island (Bet Now: $19.00) is the very interesting runner. Bruce Hill trains this gelding, who is first up here. His overall record isn’t great, but he can sprint well fresh and his recent trial, placing at the Gold Coast, was outstanding to the eye. Stable don’t mind targeting a horse fresh, especially in town, so I’d watch the market/yard.
Race 6. (14:27) Mick Dittman Plate 1050m
2 Whypeeo, (Bet Now: $1.95) barring bad luck, should be winning this. High quality three year old that resumes for the Toby Edmonds team after a pretty good Summer campaign, highlighted by a win over star three year old Pierata in the Vo Rogue. Hopefully they keep him to sprints because he is quite explosive between 1000m-1200m. Recent trial win indicates he has come back in great order.
4 Marble (Bet Now: $3.90) is a James Cummings trained colt who didn’t let down on the bog first up at Gosford (Metro) before going to the Rosehill midweeks where he was ridden like a good thing by Blake Shinn and won accordingly, drawing right away for a dominant victory. Harder here, but should measure up.
6 Aggravate (Bet Now: $17.00) is an interesting one. Les Kelly trains this three year old who has shown promise in a short space of time and now gets thrown in at the deep end. Good win last time out over the 900m at the Gold Coast, spanking them by nearly three on the bottomless surface. Not sure he is as dynamic on top of the ground but always respect the stable.
Race 7. (15:07) Ascot Handicap 1200m
Surely 3 Mr Sneaky (Bet Now: $4.00) puts this field away. The stable tried him out as a WFA horse in the Autumn in Melbourne and he ran well but didn’t quite measure up well enough to win. Been freshened up and his trial win a couple of weeks back at Cranbourne was very good. Just has to overcome the sticky gate.
4 Amanaat (Bet Now: $2.20) has been a different beast since joining Ben Currie. He was an okay horse when trained by the Hayes/Dabernig team but he has gone to a new level in Queensland, highlighted by his superb last start win in the Weetwood where he got the right run and once Bobby pushed the button, it was game over. Has to be respected.
9 In His Stride (Bet Now: $15.00) is three weeks between runs for the Rex Lipp team since racing over the 1050m here where he got a mile back in the run but savaged the line late to just miss out on picking up Gracida. I reckon back up to 1200m will suit this gelding and with a likely hot tempo, he will be the one charging.
Race 8. (15:47) Tails Stakes 1600m
10 Pelethronius (Bet Now: $5.50) for me. David Pfieffer has this horse going really well. Just wants the track to have a bit of give in it and the amount of racing this track has had recently, it’ll be chopped out, so I think he’ll get conditions to suit. Looked all over a winner a few weeks back over the 1350m at Doomben but just missed out on picking up Aqua Vite in a three way go. 1600m big tick, gets his chance.
I find 16 Bedford (Bet Now: $7.00) a fascinating runner. Could have gone down the Mornington Cup path after a strong run in the Prelude but the stable put him on ice with the Brisbane Winter in mind. Last run was in that Prelude on Feb 24 so he has residual fitness on his side and he can produced a brilliant last 600m.
7 Violate (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Brent Stanley trained gelding who has raced well in Brisbane before so coming here is nothing new to him. Two runs to kick this prep off in Melbourne have been good, resuming with an unlucky second over 1400m at Flemington before going to the Victoria Handicap at Caulfield and being close up behind Widgee Turf. Third up at the mile looks ideal and with the right run, he can threaten.
Race 9. (16:27) Countdown To Carnival Plate (Class 6) 1200m
2 Mr Marbellouz (Bet Now: $1.50) is the real x factor. Kevin Kemp trains this highly exciting gelding who hasn’t raced for four weeks since bolting up at this track/distance. He’s running times of a good horse, he has the right racing pattern, been given the little freshen up and he has showed he loves Doomben.
11 Freddie Fox Trot (Bet Now: $9.50) is a very promising gelding that resumes for the Les Kelly team. The stable usually fire at their home track at the Gold Coast but travel to town for success with this ripper, who was tipped out after winning his fourth race on the bounce. Trialled up great a couple of weeks back at the Gold Coast and he appears as if he’ll be forward to run well fresh.
Bruce Hill had a couple nominated for the race but he goes with the sole runner in 8 Tailevent (Bet Now: $27.00). He ran over 1100m at Toowoomba a fortnight ago where he got back to near last in the run but finished off quite strongly I thought when fourth to Rhyme Nor Rhythm. Good record at the track/distance and draws a sweet gate. Definite chance.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 2 Whypeeo
NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 2 Mr Marbellouz
VALUE: Race Four Number 10 Le Dude
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2
Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 9
Leg Three: 5, 7, 9, 16
Leg Four: 2, 7, 8, 11
$50 Investment= 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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