21/4/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, WATC Derby day

Nine races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday for WATC Derby Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

3 Great Charade (Bet Now: $3.70) looks the safe option to play here. He debuted over the 1100m here last Wednesday where got a fair way back off them but finished off with real purpose late to run second to Global Reset. Back to 1000m is the slight concern, but hopefully from the good draw he can take advantage.

1 Super Stardom (Bet Now: $5.50) is a daughter of War Chant for the Neville Parnham team who was specked at longer odds when getting the box seat here a fortnight ago and once she got the split, she burst through and got the job done nicely to score. Might have to do more work here, but she has the runs on the board.

6 Chocko (Bet Now: $6.50) is a son of Galah that debuts for the in form Colin Webster team. This bloke has been given three really solid trials this prep in readiness for his debut so he has had that grounding to run well, especially at 1000m on debut. Plenty of headgear for his first start, so I reckon there is intent to run well.

8 Sariska (Bet Now: $2.05) is a daughter of Super Kid that resumes for the Vaughn Sigley yard. This girl debuted towards the end of last year at Bunbury where she sat off the speed and worked home strongly to run second to Bon Voyage, with the form coming out of that race being very strong. Trial leading in looked sharp and she appears ready to go.

I think back to 1200m will really suit 1 Clever Dick (Bet Now: $6.50). This bloke is on the seven day back up after racing over 1400m here last Saturday where he once again appeared to have every chance but just didn’t attack the line with purpose well enough to win. If he can produce better racing manners, he’ll go close.

9 Parisa (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Patronize filly for the cliff Green team who was hard in the market when debuting at Geraldton where she got back in the small field but you had to like the way she finished the race off, especially the final 150m, when second to Ubersonic Express. Up to 1200m on the bigger track looks ideal and she is a likely type.

6 Broker (Bet Now: $2.70) should be winning this. Jason Miller has a really promising horse on his hands. Ran over the 1400m here a fortnight back where Johnston-Porter gave the gelding a sweet steer just off the pace and once he got clear air, the race was as good as over. He’ll have no trouble with the mile and Pike takes over.

5 Miracle Man (Bet Now: $3.40) is an Adam Durrant trained three year old taking on the older horses but he’s certainly capable. He took on the older horses last time out in the Raconteur and ran a beauty I thought when second to the handy galloper Mizlecki. Tricky gate, but hard fit, in form and up to the mile no issue.

2 Corporate Larrikin (Bet Now: $21.00) will make sure this is a truly run mile and he does race best when he dominates from the front. He ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where he ran along in front and gave a good kick but just felt the pinch late when fourth to My Greek Boy. Last bit will test but he’ll give a sight.

7 Discoville (Bet Now: $3.40) isn’t the most reliable galloper going around but you could say the same about most of these. He is on the seven day back up after racing over 1800m here last Saturday where I thought Parnham gave the horse every chance but these days, I reckon beyond a mile is a stretch when grabbed late by Elegant Blast. One of many chances.

1 Danefin (Bet Now: $3.40) is the class runner of the field. Has had two runs back from a break but has run well in much stronger races. Last run came here a fortnight back when finishing down the track behind Broker, who goes around in the third race so by the time this race is run, you’ll know the strength of the form. Definite threat.

9 Khawaja (Bet Now: $21.00) is a Blackfriars gelding for the Sharon Miller team who resumed in the race mentioned above won by Seaside Serenade, and I thought his effort was quite good. He got a fair way back in the run and worked home well without threatening. Draws well and has a stack of upside here.

10 Show Honey (Bet Now: $5.50) is a tough mare to follow with confidence but now she has a win on the board, she can go right on with it. She ran over 1200m here two weeks ago where she sat back in a fast run race before Johnston-Porter got her clear and she savaged the line to get the win. Her confidence is up, hopefully she can go on with it.

3 Jingtang (Bet Now: $3.50) is racing so well at the moment for the Chris Gangemi and this should be a welcomed drop in depth. He took on the above average stablemate Floyd last time out and he tried hard when sitting just off the horse but that horse just packed too much class and kicked on well enough. This horse is flying and should be hard to beat.

1 Mr Motown (Bet Now: $26.00) is facing his D-Day here for mine. Very talented horse for the Lindsey Smith team but to be fair has done bugger all in two runs back from a break. Five weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance and failing to fire behind Gee Boss. He does go well third up and is well in after the claim.

10 Necklet (Bet Now: $3.40) for me in a ripping race for the females. She is on the seven day back up for the Fred Kersley team after racing here last Saturday over 1200m where she just got too far back in the run but savaged the line late to just miss out on picking up Get The Vibe. She should eat up the 1400m and the weight scale suits her ideally.

2 Royal Missile (Bet Now: $2.90) is two weeks between runs for the Simon Miller yard since contesting the Charleson Classic where she ran well but just lacked the finishing burst that Dainty Tess produced, settling for third. No horse of that class here, and despite a tricky gate, I think she is a live threat despite being deep into a prep.

6 Swift Sis (Bet Now: $11.00) comes through the Dainty Tess race mentioned above where she was specked at longer odds and ran accordingly, getting the box seat sit before angling to the inside and finishing off strongly to just miss out on the win. She’s in ripping form at the moment and I’m certainly giving her a chance.

7 Dudemanbro (Bet Now: $9.00) looks as if he is a horse that will stay all day so I’ll give him a chance. He is three weeks between runs since racng over 2200m here where he got back and held up before eventually getting clear and winding up okay late behind Master Magician. I think he’ll get the trip and has upside.

2 Plays The Game (Bet Now: $3.90) does look the obvious. Michael Lane has this horse absolutely flying at the moment, culminating in a dominant Pinjarra Cup last start where Parnham gave him a peach just off the pace before letting down hard late to score. He’ll get a suck run from the rail and is a definite chance.

4 Beg To Differ (Bet Now: $9.00) is a stablemate of Plays The Game who also comes through the Pinjarra Cup where I thought he did a pretty good job in defeat, working to the line with purpose after sitting wide with cover for the trip. Little query at the two miles but with a soft run from the barrier, he could well be okay.

Ripping edition of the Derby and I’ll just go the way of 2 Action (Bet Now: $3.70). His Melvista run was very good. The ride was odd. Could have easily continued to get three wide cover but instead switched to the rail, hoping for luck, and didn’t get it at the right time. Better luck and I think he’ll be winning.

1 Money Maher (Bet Now: $6.00), visually, fell in to win the Melvista but when you look at the replay and saw the Stewards Report, the win was huge. Did plenty of work in the run and was there to be beaten but found plenty late to win, and it was later found he pulled off both fore plates. I think if he runs 2400m, his brilliance will take him a long way.

9 Come Play With Me (Bet Now: $26.00) is the very interesting runner. Adam Durrant trains this three year old, who had trialled well prior to resuming at Geraldton a tick over two weeks back where he got too far back in the run and took an eternity to wind up but was good late behind Freedom By Choice. It’s different but Adam Durrant likes different.

2 Run Liam Run (Bet Now: $4.20) for me in the get out. Lyn Kiddle trains this veteran, who ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he was up on speed and looked to go well in the run but just found the brilliance of Broker too much. That horse looks a good thing earlier in the program so by post time here, you’ll know how strong the form is.

4 Delicate Miss (Bet Now: $14.00) looks suited up to 1400m I feel. She ran over 1200m here a fortnight back where she just got a mile back in the run but finished off quite strongly behind Show Honey. Bit of an unknown at the trip, but with the right run from the barrier, and a cold steer, she can go close to winning.

12 Rotana Beach (Bet Now: $41.00) doesn’t win out of turn, but there has been enough evidence in recent outings to suggest he could fill a minor pot at huge odds. Wasn’t far off Show Honey over 1200m here a fortnight back in what looked a pretty strong race. Will need luck from the draw, but I can see him running well at $41+.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 6 Broker

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 2 Action

VALUE: Race Seven Number 7 Dudemanbro

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 6, 9, 10

Leg Two: 2, 4, 7, 8

Leg Three: 1, 2

Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 7, 9

$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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