21/3/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Mornington, Mornington Cup day

A free ticket into the Caulfield Cup awaits the winner of the Mornington Cup and the 2400m staying contest is the feature event at Mornington this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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4 Albukhturi (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is a Hayes/Dabernig colt that had no luck on debut at Ballarat before going to the Sires Produce at Flemington and despite looking a bit outclassed on paper, I thought he ran well in a somewhat unsuitable race. Think he’ll eat up 1500m here. Does he want further though? Only time will tell but I’ll give him a chance here.

1 Amish Boy (Bet Now: $2.10 TOP ODDS) is a son of Star Witness for the Maher/Eustace team that comes here in winning form after taking out the 2YO Magic Millions at Morphettville last Monday, sitting off a strong speed before easing wider and finishing off hard to get up on the peg. Little query at 1500m, but stable is flying with their juveniles.

6 Torbreck (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) should be suited up to 1500m. Debuted over 1200m at Ballarat where he was run off his legs early but really liked the way he finished his race off behind impressive winner Thudson. Like him up to 1500m and if he can hold up from the inside draw, think he’ll take some beating against these.

7 Des Moines (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) on top for me. Michael Moroney trains this mare, who resumed down the Flemington straight when well supported to beat the in form mare Diamond Effort but she was nearer the inside of the track and that day, that wasn’t the spot to be, especially for straight racing. Much better suited here I feel and her form does read well.

5 Done By Me (Bet Now: $4.40 TOP ODDS) is a daughter of Bon Hoffa that is first up for Phillip Stokes and I think a positive resumtion is on the cards. Was really good when she last raced in the Twilight Glow at Sandown behind Xilong after getting little luck in the straight. Liked the trial leading into this race and does have a touch of class.

8 Jamaican Harry (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) looks the value. Thought she was a definite pass mark first up at Werribee before racing down the Flemington straight, sitting off the speed, before finding clear air and surged hard the last little bit to win impressively. Looks to be good speed in front, so she should sit off that and be strong at the end.

Going the way of 9 Raktoff (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS), who resumes for Richard Cully. Talented mare who hasn’t raced since October 2 at Ballarat when a close up fourth to the Stakes performed Marcel From Madrid. Loved the way she closed off in a recent Colac jumpout, Georgina remains on, looks to lead and prove hard to get past.

11 Too Good Too Hard (Bet Now: $3.20 TOP ODDS) is a Phillip Stokes trained four year old that resumes. Hasn’t been sighted since a solid fifth down the Flemington straight on Derby Day behind Tofane. Liked the way she went in a recent Cranbourne trial and is a mare who does sprint well fresh. Just depends where she gets to from the gate.

8 I’m Telling Ya (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) is on the seven day back up after racing over 1200m at Caulfield last Saturday where he got back off the speed before peeling wider and looming big time to win when asked for the big effort. Just couldn’t put them away when a close up third to Gododdin. Finding it hard to win, but finds a suitable race.

In the corner of short course specialist 11 Sizzlefly (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS), a talented filly for Phillip Stokes that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since Cup Day down the Flemington straight when midfield in a good race won by a talented animal in Garner. Liked the trial behind Knowles, who spanked them last week at Ballarat, so the form reads well, and she’s already a track/distance winner.

5 Messerschmitt (Bet Now: $4.60 TOP ODDS) is flying for Anthony Freedman. On face value, he let punters down at Morphettville last start. But when you look at the splits, the leader ran the last 600m in a tick over 33. Considering Messerschmitt was last in the run, it was a really good effort by him to get as close as he did. Fast run 1000m, he’ll take some beating.

10 Rewarding Effort (Bet Now: $51.00 TOP ODDS) could be a blowout if they go mad in front. Eric Musgrove trains this mare, who has performed well at metro level before. Ran at Morphettville three weeks ago and was solid in defeat when beaten three lengths by who I think will be a Stakes class mare in time, Lakhani Rose. Does no work in the run and gets good weight relief.

Complete throw at the stumps here with 4 Cappo D’Oro (Bet Now: $20.00). On face value, he’s been pretty ordinary this time in. Just don’t think he’s been suited in most of the races he has contested, which have been sit/sprints. I’d love to see them take advantage of the inside gate and sit nearer the speed, which he is capable of. If that happens, think he runs a good race.

The Busuttin/Young stable has 2 Salsamor (Bet Now: $3.00) flying at the moment. Loved the way he toughed it out to win two back at Flemington before going to the Wangaratta Cup and yes, it wasn’t a strong race, but he still had to put them away, and he did it in spades, spanking them by over three lengths. Confident he runs well again.

9 Maclairey (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Pat Carey trained stayer that should be suited at 2000m on his home track after contesting the Stony Creek Cup last start where he got back nearer the inside before eventually getting clear, peeling wider and surging hard late, just missing out on the win. If he can use gate one in a positive way, he’s a live chance.

8 Chuck A Luck (Bet Now: $4.20) looks to be the pony to bet on here in a good edition of this race. Talented three year old that made his Australian debut at Sandown when wide throughout and sticking on really well in defeat when third to Falls. Has a tricky barrier to overcome, but looks above average and only needs normal luck to go close.

1 Yourdeel (Bet Now: $12.00) does have class from his 2YO days on these. Problem being he hasn’t really threatened since those 2YO days and really has done nothing in Australia. Want to be forgiving of last start at Flemington given those on speed controlled things and those out the back, including Yourdeel, had little chance. If he brings his best, he’s in the mix.

2 Power Scheme (Bet Now: $14.00) is a son of Fiorente that is likely on the SA Derby path. This Sun Stud three year old for the Hayes/Dabernig stable resumed over 1400m at Flemington, a trip short of his best, but was a definite pass mark for a resumption behind Spend. 1600m looks ideal for him and did run well in the Mornington Sires last year so the track will be fine for him.

Looks a perfect assignment for 14 Just Benjamin (Bet Now: $3.80). I think Anthony Freedman has a handy stayer on his hands here. The tempo was against him over 2000m at Caulfield last time out when back and closing off okay without threatening when fourth to Aktau. He’s looking for further, which he gets here, and I think sitting closer in the run will ensure he’s hard to beat.

11 Aktau (Bet Now: $4.20) is a very progressive import that won’t look out of place I don’t think as a Caulfield Cup contender. To get there, does need to lift his rating up…or win this race, the golden ticket into the Caulfield Cup. Loved the way he knuckled down to win over 2000m at Caulfield last time, getting the better of Inverloch, a good winner last Saturday, so the form reads well.

5 Suzuka Devious (Bet Now: $21.00) is the one I’m wary of. He has contested some elite races since coming to Australia and in the Ballarat Cup, he had a throat issue. Two runs back from a spell have come in the Peter Young and Australian Cup, and each time he has been far from disgraced. This looks more his level and getting out to 2400m is a big tick.

12 Prophet’s Thumb (Bet Now: $4.60) is a big watch here. Quality mare for Anthony Freedman that resumes and is having start one for the new stable. Her best form is good enough to run well against these and liked the way she went through her gears in a recent Cranbourne trial win. Interesting to see what the market does with her.

10 William Thomas (Bet Now: $20.00) is a John Price trained sprinter that was met with good market support when resuming three weeks ago in Bob Hoysted down the Flemington straight and while he was beaten four lengths by Fabergino, the run had merit to it in a race not suited to his racing style. Much better suited here and should be a leading chance.

11 Manolo Blahniq (Bet Now: $26.00) might need one more run, but feature sprint on the home track, have to respect him. The Bob Hoysted just looked a barrier trial for him but it was a very good trial I thought behind the WA speed demon Fabergino. He’ll eat up the extra 200m…may want 1400m, but reckon he’s going really well.

2 Declares War (Bet Now: $4.00) might need one more, but can’t ignore him. Quality galloper for Matt Cumani that resumed over 1400m at Flemington in what was a real on pace affair, where they ran around 34 for the Final 600m, so those behind were going to struggle as a winning threat. Declares War was one of those, but did catch the eye given he has plenty of improvement left.

3 Wham (Bet Now: $3.00) is bred to get a trip so out to 1600m I do like for him. Ran sixth in the Jumbo Ozaki race at Flemington, the same one that Declares War contested. Thought Wham had his chance on face value but perhaps the sit/sprint set up wasn’t his go. Bred to appreciate 1600m…has he got upside left though?

1 Fanciful Toff (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Maher/Eustace trained stayer that resumes. This guy had a busy Winter prep when last in work, but did graduate from a provincial class horse to a Saturday metro grade winner. Thought the recent Cranbourne trial was very good and though 1600m is short of his best, he does have class.

BEST BET: Race Seven Number 14 Just Benjamin

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 2 Declares War

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 4 Cappo D’Oro

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2, 8, 13

Leg Two: 14

Leg Three: 7, 10, 11, 12, 15

Leg Four: 2, 3

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